Heat–Kings carries a 238.1 total, and the Heat's 124.3 implied points are the highest on the slate as 10.5-point favorites against the Kings. Five games lock Sunday at 7:00 PM ET, starting with Jazz–Timberwolves, where the Timberwolves are 12-point favorites and implied for 117.3. The Celtics are 13-point favorites against the Bucks with a 117.8 implied total, and the Bucks sit at 104.8. The Mavericks are 7.5-point favorites against the Nets, and Pelicans–Clippers is close, with the Pelicans favored by 1.5 and a 227.1 total.
The injury report reshapes three rotations. Anthony Edwards is out for the Timberwolves, the Nets play without Egor Demin and Mikel Brown Jr., and the Clippers lose Brandon Ingram, Isaiah Jackson and Bradley Beal. Keegan Murray is out for the Kings. The Jazz have Keyonte George (DK $7,900) and Lauri Markkanen (DK $7,500) questionable in the 7:00 PM game, so that news lands before lock. The other four games tip after lock, and late swap re-solves the open spots as their news breaks.
Injury Watch
- Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves, out)
- Brandon Ingram (Clippers, out)
- Keegan Murray (Kings, out)
- Isaiah Jackson (Clippers, out)
- Egor Demin (Nets, out)
- Keyonte George (DK $7,900) (Jazz, questionable)
- Lauri Markkanen (DK $7,500) (Jazz, questionable)
- Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz, out)
Point Guard
Brayden Burries (DK $4,300)
Burries projects to start for the Bucks against the Celtics, with 22 minutes and a 21.1% usage rate. He posted 47.3 DK points against the Raptors on November 6, and his last-three average sits at 29.8.
Sportsbooks set his line at 11.4 points and 4.7 rebounds, and the Hero Projection has him at 27.1 DK points. His 27.4% optimal rate is the top mark at point guard, and he is a popular cheap starter.
LaMelo Ball (DK $8,000)
Anthony Edwards is out, and Ball runs point for the Timberwolves against the Jazz with a 26.2% optimal rate. He projects for 31 minutes and averages 41.3 DK points over his last three. His props line sits at 20.8 points.
Tyler Herro (DK $6,700)
Herro scored 37.3 DK points against the Celtics on November 4, and he draws the same opponent with a 25.7% optimal rate. He followed with 46.8 against the Raptors on November 6, and his last-three average is 41.3.
Shooting Guard
Darius Acuff Jr. (DK $8,400)
Acuff runs the Kings' offense against the Heat with a 32.4% usage rate over a projected 36 minutes, and his optimal rate sits at 22.0%. He scored 42.3 DK points against the Spurs on November 6.
Sportsbooks set his line at 23.6 points and 6.1 assists, and his last-three average of 43.9 sits above his 42.1 Hero Projection. He is a crowd favorite at both guard spots.
Ayo Dosunmu (DK $6,600)
Dosunmu projects for 33 minutes against the Jazz with a 19.9% optimal rate, and books set his line at 18.1 points. He averages 41.1 DK points over his last three.
Zach LaVine (DK $6,600)
Keegan Murray is out for the Kings, and books set LaVine's line at 20.3 points against the Heat with a 16.6% optimal rate. LaVine projects for 32 minutes and a 32.1 Hero Projection.
Small Forward
Michael Porter Jr. (DK $7,200)
Porter posted 39.8 DK points against the Hawks on November 7, and Egor Demin is out for the Nets against the Mavericks. Porter carries a 25.3% usage rate over a projected 35 minutes, with a 38.0 average over his last three.
His props line sits at 21.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.3 threes. His 23.5% optimal rate is the top mark at small forward, and the field has piled in on him.
Jayson Tatum (DK $10,000)
Tatum rested on November 4 and was off the injury report for the Celtics' next game, and he carries a 19.8% optimal rate. He averages 50.7 over his last three and takes a 33.6% usage rate against the Bucks, with the Celtics implied for 117.8, the second-highest total on the slate.
Jaden McDaniels (DK $6,500)
The Timberwolves face the Jazz, and McDaniels pairs 33 projected minutes on the wing with a 16.9% optimal rate. He posted 44.0 DK points against the Pelicans on November 6, and books set his line at 16.9 points.
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK $11,300)
The Heat own the highest implied total on the slate against the Kings, and Antetokounmpo runs their offense with a 32.8% usage rate over 33 projected minutes and a 22.8% optimal rate. He averages 55.5 DK points over his last three.
His 83.0 ceiling is the top mark at power forward, and his props line sits at 29.2 points, 11.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists. The field builds around him at the top of the price range.
Julius Randle (DK $7,500)
Randle carries a 27.7% usage rate over 34 projected minutes against the Mavericks, with an 18.9% optimal rate. His last-three average sits at 38.1.
Max Strus (DK $4,400)
Brandon Ingram is out for the Clippers, and Strus returned from a foot injury on November 2 with a 26.9 DK average over his last two and a 16.5% optimal rate. He carries a 22.4% usage rate against the Pelicans and a 24.1 Hero Projection.
Center
Danny Wolf (DK $3,000)
Wolf started for the Nets on November 7 and posted 23.3 DK points against the Hawks, and he carries a 23.6% optimal rate. He averages 22.3 over his last three and faces the Mavericks.
His props line sits at 9.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 threes, and his 7.55 value is the top mark at center. He is a popular punt at the position.
Brook Lopez (DK $4,600)
Isaiah Jackson is out, and Lopez projects to start for the Clippers against the Pelicans with 25 minutes and a 23.1% optimal rate. He posted 36.0 DK points against the Heat on November 4, with a 24.8 average over his last three.
Bam Adebayo (DK $8,100)
Adebayo averages 44.4 DK points over his last three heading into the Kings game, and books set his line at 19.3 points. He is 10.5% owned with a 13.3% optimal rate.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Heat–Kings, with Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK $11,300) and Bam Adebayo (DK $8,100) at its center and Adebayo treated as a core big. DFS Hero backs that read, with Adebayo 10.5% owned at a 13.3% optimal rate and Antetokounmpo at a 22.8% optimal rate. The market is split on the Timberwolves and on LaMelo Ball (DK $8,000), and it is split on Pelicans–Clippers too. DFS Hero has Ball at a 26.2% optimal rate. A contrarian view points to Domantas Sabonis (DK $9,700) and his rebounding, and his leverage of 2.8 makes him one to let Build & Sim size, while the news the market keys on is the Nets playing without Egor Demin and Mikel Brown Jr.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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