Packers–Lions owns the slate with a 55.5 total, the highest on the board, and the Lions' 29.5 implied points are the most of any team. The Sunday main slate runs 10 games and locks at 1:00 PM ET, with Packers–Lions, Rams–Raiders and Broncos–Cardinals in the afternoon window. 49ers–Falcons holds the second-highest total at 50.5, and the 49ers and the Texans share the second-highest implied total at 26.5.
Rams–Raiders rounds out the top three totals at 48.5, and all three of the top games are indoors. The 49ers come in 6-0 as 2.5-point favorites against the Falcons. Browns–Titans sits at the bottom with a 37.0 total, and the Giants' 16.0 implied total is the lowest on the slate, with the Texans favored by 10.5. The Ravens turn to Tyler Huntley (DK $4,900) with Lamar Jackson out.
Injury Watch
- Mike Evans (49ers, out)
- David Montgomery (Texans, out): Woody Marks (DK $5,600) is next up at running back.
- Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers, out)
- Deebo Samuel Sr. (49ers, out)
- Brian Robinson Jr. (Falcons, out)
- Puka Nacua (DK $8,400) (Rams, questionable)
- Lamar Jackson (Ravens, out): Tyler Huntley (DK $4,900) is next up at quarterback.
- Baker Mayfield (DK $5,500) (Buccaneers, questionable)
Top Stacks
SF vs ATL (DK $19,800)
Players: Brock Purdy (DK $6,600); George Kittle (DK $5,700); Drake London (DK $7,500)
The 49ers stack projects 59.8 points with 18.9% average ownership, a 16.7% optimal rate and 3.05 value, and it is Stack IQ's top stack. Purdy's props line sits at 242.5 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns, with a 17% projected carry share on top of it. Kittle has averaged 6.7 targets a game over his last three, and the 49ers carry a 26.5 implied total. London brings back a 50.5-point game with a 28% projected target share and an 85-yard receiving line.
GB vs DET (DK $19,800)
Players: Jordan Love (DK $6,000); Matthew Golden (DK $6,000); Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK $7,800)
The Packers stack projects 58.4 points with 22.5% average ownership, a 12.9% optimal rate and 2.96 value. Love's props line sits at 283.5 passing yards on 37.5 attempts, and Golden's sits at 73.5 receiving yards on a 24% projected target share. The Packers are implied for 26.0 against a Lions defense that allows the second-most DK points per game to receivers. St. Brown brings back a 55.5-point game with a 33% projected target share and lines of 82 receiving yards and 7.5 catches.
CIN vs BAL (DK $21,900)
Players: Joe Burrow (DK $6,900); Ja'Marr Chase (DK $8,100); Zay Flowers (DK $6,900)
The Bengals stack projects 58.7 points with 10.3% average ownership, a 12.8% optimal rate and 2.68 value. Burrow carries a 25.6 DK average over his last three, and Chase holds a 33% projected target share with lines of 82 receiving yards and 7.5 catches. The Bengals are implied for 24.5 as 3-point favorites. Flowers brings back a 46.0-point game with a 30% projected target share and 10.0 targets a game over his last three.
Quarterback
Jordan Love (DK $6,000)
Love faces the Lions at Ford Field in a 55.5-point game. He is 18.5% owned with a 20.0% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at quarterback.
Love scored 21.2 DK points against the Cowboys on October 18, level with his 21.2 average over his last three. He practiced fully on Thursday after a limited Wednesday with a back injury. The Hero Projection has him at 20.3 points with a 34.8-point ceiling.
C.J. Stroud (DK $5,700)
Stroud scored 27.0 DK points against the Jaguars on October 18, and his average over his last three is 24.7. The Giants allow the fifth-most DK points per game to quarterbacks. He is 10.7% owned with a 12.5% optimal rate.
Bryce Young (DK $5,900)
The Buccaneers blitz on 43.8% of passing plays, and Young has averaged 8.9 yards per attempt against the blitz this season. The Panthers are favored in this one, and he is 8.6% owned with a 9.3% optimal rate.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey (DK $7,600)
McCaffrey was in line for extra pass-catching work against the Falcons this week, and he carries a 23% projected target share. His props line sits at 5.5 receptions and 46.5 receiving yards, with a 71% anytime touchdown chance.
He scored 31.7 DK points against the Commanders on October 19, and his last-three average is 21.7. A popular play, he holds a 35.5% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at running back, with 3.17 value.
Woody Marks (DK $5,600)
David Montgomery is out, and Marks leads the Texans' backfield against the Giants with a 66% projected carry share. The Texans are 10.5-point favorites, and Marks is 21.6% owned with a 25.7% optimal rate.
Bijan Robinson (DK $8,500)
Robinson is the Falcons' lead back against the 49ers, and with Brian Robinson Jr. out he holds a 69% projected carry share. His props line sits at 89.5 rushing yards with a 76% anytime touchdown chance, and he carries a 24.4% optimal rate, the third-best at running back.
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin Jr. (DK $4,300)
Emeka Egbuka is out, and Godwin steps into the lead receiver role for the Buccaneers against the Panthers. He carries a 21% projected target share and 6.0 targets a game over his last three, with a props line of 45.5 receiving yards.
The field under-owns that role change, and Build & Sim is the place to size it. Godwin is 17.1% owned with a 35.0% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at receiver, and a leverage of 17.9.
Matthew Golden (DK $6,000)
Golden caught a touchdown for 25.4 DK points against the Cowboys on October 18, and his average over his last three is 20.1. He draws a Lions defense that allows the second-most DK points per game to receivers, and he carries a 27.9% optimal rate as a crowd favorite.
Ted Hurst III (DK $3,000)
Hurst moves into a bigger role for the Buccaneers against the Panthers this week, with a props line of 38.5 receiving yards. He is 9.9% owned with a 27.1% optimal rate and a leverage of 17.2.
Tight End
George Kittle (DK $5,700)
Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. are out, and Kittle takes a bigger share of the 49ers' passing game against the Falcons. He carries a 26% projected target share, and his props line sits at 71.5 receiving yards with a 48% anytime touchdown chance.
Kittle caught a touchdown for 17.9 DK points against the Commanders on October 19, and his last-three average is 14.1. He is 27.2% owned with a 30.0% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at tight end.
Cade Otton (DK $3,100)
Otton holds the Buccaneers' tight end job against the Panthers on a 91% projected snap share. He is 13.7% owned with a 27.1% optimal rate and a leverage of 13.4, the top leverage at tight end.
Sam LaPorta (DK $4,800)
The Lions carry the slate's highest implied total at 29.5, and LaPorta plays in that offense against the Packers. He caught a touchdown for 19.8 DK points against the Cardinals on October 11, and his last-three average is 16.5. A tight end the field likes, he holds a 13.1% optimal rate.
Defense
Titans (DK $2,600)
The Titans face a Browns offense implied for 19.5 in the slate's lowest-total game, 37.0. They are 18.9% owned with a 20.3% optimal rate.
Against the Colts on October 18, the Titans put up 21.0 DK points, and their last-three average is 8.3. Their anytime touchdown chance sits at 17%, with 2.74 value.
Texans (DK $3,400)
The Texans face the Giants' 16.0 implied total, the lowest on the slate. A chalk defense, they carry a 9.9 projection, a 20.0-point ceiling and a 16.2% optimal rate.
Dolphins (DK $2,300)
The Jets carry a 21.8 implied total in the slate's second-lowest-total game, and the Dolphins face them. They are 7.5% owned with an 8.8% optimal rate and a leverage of 1.3.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Packers–Lions, with Jahmyr Gibbs (DK $9,800) as the core spend-up, and Christian McCaffrey (DK $7,600) and George Kittle (DK $5,700) as the default chalk. It splits between Jordan Love (DK $6,000) and Jared Goff (DK $6,800) at quarterback, and it splits on Woody Marks (DK $5,600) as a core piece. The market reports that Tyler Huntley (DK $4,900) starts for the Ravens, and a minority of the market looks to Derrick Henry (DK $7,900), Tetairoa McMillan (DK $7,100), Bo Nix (DK $5,000) and the Vikings defense. DFS Hero has Love at a 20.0% optimal rate. DFS Hero has Marks at a 25.7% optimal rate.
Take these reads into the DFS Hero Workspace: shape the player pool, then Build & Sim builds your lineups and simulates every one against your contest's real payouts in one click. Stack IQ, late swap and Hero Chat sit in the same screen. Get Full Access for $1: $1 for 5 days, cancel anytime.
The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
More NFL DFS Analysis
The DFS engine that never stops working.
Build, simulate, and fill your entries in one Workspace, across every sport. $1 for 5 days.