Two 4-2 teams meet at Soldier Field. The 51.0 total puts both quarterbacks and their top targets in play. The Bears are 3-point favorites over the Patriots, with a 59% win chance against 41%. The showdown is one game and locks at 8:15 PM ET.
Drake Maye (DK $15,900) at Captain is the top read. He has the hottest recent form of either quarterback and a Captain optimal rate above his Captain ownership. Caleb Williams (DK $15,600) at Captain is the read on the favored side, and A.J. Brown (DK $13,500) at Captain is the pass catcher with the most target share behind him.
Captain
Drake Maye (DK $10,600)
Maye threw three touchdowns for 23.8 DK points against the Jets on October 18, and his last-three average is 31.5 heading into the game against the Bears. His 20% projected carry share gives him rushing work on top of the passing.
The field puts him at Captain less often than he wins there: 19.4% Captain ownership against a 22.3% Captain optimal rate. His 35.8 ceiling sits on a DK $15,900 Captain price.
Caleb Williams (DK $10,400)
Williams returned from a hamstring injury on October 18 and threw for 305 yards against the Patriots' last opponent before this one, the Falcons, for 19.5 DK points. His 17.0% Captain ownership sits under a 19.1% Captain optimal rate. His 34.4 ceiling comes at a DK $15,600 Captain price.
A.J. Brown (DK $9,000)
Brown carries a 29% projected target share, and he practiced through an ankle issue to land without an injury designation for the game against the Bears. He is 11.8% owned at Captain with an 18.5% Captain optimal rate. His 35.3 ceiling sits on a DK $13,500 Captain price.
Core Plays
D'Andre Swift (DK $9,800)
Kyle Monangai is out, and Swift holds a 48% projected carry share against the Patriots. Sportsbooks give him a 62% anytime touchdown chance and a 61.5-yard rushing line.
Swift ran for two touchdowns and scored 23.0 DK points against the Falcons on October 18, and his last-three average is 16.2. His 36.2 ceiling is the top mark at running back. He is 45.4% owned with a 46.6% optimal rate.
Luther Burden III (DK $8,400)
Burden caught all eight of his targets for 17.5 DK points against the Falcons on October 18 and draws the Patriots next. His 21% projected target share is second on the Bears to no one at receiver. He is 38.6% owned with a 43.3% optimal rate.
Rhamondre Stevenson (DK $7,800)
Stevenson leads the Patriots' backfield with a 37% projected carry share against the Bears, and his 34.1% optimal rate is second at running back. His last-three average is 13.2, and sportsbooks give him a 51% anytime touchdown chance.
Value Plays
Kalif Raymond (DK $3,400)
Raymond holds the Bears' third receiver spot against the Patriots, with a 57% projected snap share and an 11% projected target share. He also returned three punts for 54 yards against the Falcons on October 18.
He is 19.4% owned with a 22.1% optimal rate, a leverage of 2.7. His price sits under a Maye Captain without forcing a cut elsewhere.
Kyle Williams (DK $1,800)
Williams's 2.38 value is the top mark at receiver, and he has a 19.5-yard receiving line against the Bears. His last-three average is 6.8. He is 11.3% owned with a 12.2% optimal rate, a leverage of 0.9.
Correlation
The first build puts Drake Maye (DK $15,900) at Captain with DeMario Douglas (DK $6,600) and Hunter Henry (DK $6,200), then brings it back with Colston Loveland (DK $6,400). Douglas scored 20.6 DK points against the Jets on October 18, and his last-three average is 15.5. He also has a leverage of 5.7. Henry's last-three average is 13.1. Loveland's 33.6% optimal rate is the top mark at tight end.
The second build pairs Roschon Johnson (DK $4,400) with the Bears defense and Andy Borregales (DK $4,800). Johnson scored 15.5 DK points against the Falcons on October 18, and his last-three average is 9.3. His leverage of 5.4 is the top mark at running back, the kind of play to let Build & Sim size. The Bears defense carries a 20.8% optimal rate and a leverage of 4.2, and Borregales has an 18.5% optimal rate.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Caleb Williams (DK $10,400) as its default Captain, ranks Drake Maye (DK $10,600) and D'Andre Swift (DK $9,800) next, and pairs Caleb Williams with Luther Burden III (DK $8,400). It splits on which quarterback takes the Captain seat, with one side backing Maye on the return of A.J. Brown (DK $9,000), and it splits on the Patriots backfield as well. DFS Hero has Rhamondre Stevenson (DK $7,800) at a 34.1% optimal rate. The market also reports the Patriots playing without two starting guards and three cornerbacks, and a minority of the market flags Kyle Williams (DK $1,800) as a punt. DFS Hero leans to Maye in the Captain seat, with his 22.3% Captain optimal rate above the 19.1% for Caleb Williams.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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