NFL DraftKings Picks: Sunday Main Slate (November 1)

Two games share the top total on Sunday's main slate at 54.6: Ravens–Bills and Cardinals–Cowboys. The Cowboys carry a 30.8 implied total against the Cardinals, the Bengals sit at 29.5 as 12.5-point favorites over the Titans, and the Bills check in at 28.8. Eleven games lock at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1. Chargers–Rams, Chiefs–Broncos and Patriots–Dolphins kick off later in the afternoon.

Browns–Steelers carries the lowest total on the slate at 39.1, and the Browns' implied total sits at 17.8. Falcons–Buccaneers has rain in the forecast with a 40% chance of precipitation, which pushes volume toward the run game. Patriots–Dolphins carries light rain and a 42% chance of precipitation, a forecast to check before kickoff.

Injury Watch

• Brian Robinson Jr. (Falcons, out)
• George Pickens (DK $6,600) (Cowboys, questionable)
• Breece Hall (DK $6,000) (Jets, questionable)
• A.J. Brown (DK $5,900) (Patriots, questionable)
• Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers, out)
• DJ Moore (DK $5,700) (Bills, questionable)
• Jaylen Waddle (DK $5,400) (Broncos, questionable)
• Dalton Kincaid (DK $5,300) (Bills, questionable)

Top Stacks

ARI vs DAL (DK $21,200)

Players: Jacoby Brissett (DK $5,700); Trey McBride (DK $7,400); CeeDee Lamb (DK $8,100)

The Cardinals stack projects 60.6 points with 13.5% average ownership, a 16.4% optimal rate and 2.91 value. It is Stack IQ's top stack. Brissett's props set him at 256.5 passing yards, and McBride carries a 29% projected target share, both inside the Cardinals' 23.8 implied total. Lamb brings back the Cowboys' side of a 54.6 game total with a 32% projected target share and an 82.5-yard receiving line.

BUF vs BAL (DK $20,600)

Players: Josh Allen (DK $7,700); DJ Moore (DK $5,700); Zay Flowers (DK $7,200)

The Bills stack projects 58.9 points with 12.3% average ownership, a 12.8% optimal rate and 2.80 value. Allen carries a 26% projected carry share on top of a 247.5-yard passing line. Moore is questionable and holds a 24% projected target share with a 55.5-yard receiving line inside the Bills' 28.8 implied total. Flowers brings back the Ravens' side of the same 54.6 game total with an 85-yard receiving line and 10.3 targets a game over his last three.

CIN vs TEN (DK $18,900)

Players: Joe Burrow (DK $7,000); Ja'Marr Chase (DK $7,700); Wan'Dale Robinson (DK $4,200)

The Bengals stack projects 56.2 points with 13.3% average ownership, a 9.3% optimal rate and 2.97 value. Burrow has averaged 27.4 DK points over his last three with a 2.5 passing-touchdown line, and Chase's 80.5-yard receiving line ties him to the Bengals' 29.5 implied total. Robinson brings back the Titans' side of a 46.5 game total with a 27% projected target share and a 5.5-catch line.

Quarterback

Josh Allen (DK $7,700)

Allen is a runner as much as a passer. His props set him at 7.5 carries with a 62% anytime TD chance against the Ravens. The Bills carry a 28.8 implied total, and his 26.2 projection is the top mark at quarterback.

Allen has averaged 24.1 DK points over his last three games and 28.7 on the season. He is 10.7% owned with an 11.7% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at the position.

Dak Prescott (DK $6,300)

The Cowboys carry the slate's highest implied total at 30.8, and Prescott runs that offense against the Cardinals. His props set him at 2.5 passing touchdowns and 271 passing yards. He is a popular play with a 9.6% optimal rate.

Jacoby Brissett (DK $5,700)

Volume carries Brissett against the Cowboys: his props set him at 36.5 pass attempts. He is 6.2% owned with a 7.6% optimal rate, a leverage of 1.4, and he is a play to let Build & Sim size.

Running Back

Bijan Robinson (DK $8,500)

Bijan Robinson holds a 72% projected carry share against the Buccaneers, and Brian Robinson Jr. is out. Bijan's props set him at 19.5 carries and 80.5 rushing yards with a 66% anytime TD chance. The rain in the forecast at Raymond James Stadium pushes volume toward the run game.

Robinson caught all five of his targets for 59 yards in his newest game, a 17.2-point day against the 49ers on October 25. He is 15.8% owned with an 18.0% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at running back.

Chase Brown (DK $6,300)

The Bengals are 12.5-point favorites over the Titans, and Brown leads their backfield with a 62% projected carry share. He carries 3.04 value, the top value at running back, and he is a popular play with a 17.7% optimal rate.

Jahmyr Gibbs (DK $9,500)

Gibbs practiced in full on October 29 with a shoulder issue, and he carries a 17.4% optimal rate against the Vikings with 27.7 touches a game over his last three, level with his season. His props carry a 73% anytime TD chance. His 26.1 projection is the top mark at running back, and the field has him among its favorite plays.

Wide Receiver

Ja'Marr Chase (DK $7,700)

The Titans allow the eighth-most DK points per game to receivers, and Chase carries a 29% projected target share against them. His props set him at 6.5 catches with a 55% anytime TD chance.

Chase practiced in full on October 29 with an ankle issue. He scored a touchdown in his newest game, a 17.2-point day against the Ravens on October 25. His 16.9% optimal rate is the top mark among receivers, and the field agrees on him as a popular play.

Puka Nacua (DK $8,600)

Targets drive Nacua's case against the Chargers, with a 16.3% optimal rate behind it. He has drawn 13.7 targets a game over his last three, up on his season. His 23.6 projection is the top mark at receiver, and his props set him at 93.5 receiving yards.

Zay Flowers (DK $7,200)

Flowers scored 30.7 against the Bengals on October 25, and his last-three average is 19.3. The Bills allow the most DK points per game to receivers, and Flowers draws them with a 33% projected target share and a 15.3% optimal rate.

Tight End

Trey McBride (DK $7,400)

McBride draws 10.7 targets a game over his last three, level with his season, and he faces the Cowboys. His props set him at 7.5 catches and 74.5 receiving yards.

McBride scored 30.1 against the Broncos on October 25, and his last-three average is 21.3. His 19.4 projection is the top mark at tight end, with a 13.0% optimal rate behind it.

Hunter Henry (DK $4,300)

Henry's targets are up on his season over his last three, and he faces the Dolphins with a 6.7% optimal rate. His last-three average of 14.1 sits above his 9.7 season average. His game kicks off after lock with light rain and a 42% chance of precipitation in the forecast, which makes him a late-swap check.

Mark Andrews (DK $3,400)

Andrews plays in Ravens–Bills, a 54.6 game total, and the Ravens carry a 25.8 implied total. His props carry a 32% anytime TD chance, and his 6.5% optimal rate ties for third at tight end.

Defense

Steelers (DK $3,300)

The Browns carry a 17.8 implied total, and the Steelers face them as 3.5-point favorites. Deshaun Watson (DK $5,400) carries a 0.5 passing-touchdown line.

The Steelers allow the third-fewest DK points per game to quarterbacks over seven games. Their 18.5 ceiling and 9.2% optimal rate back a play the field agrees on.

Broncos (DK $2,300)

The Broncos have averaged 9.3 DK points over their last three games, and they face the Chiefs with a 7.6% optimal rate. Their 2.81 value sits beside the Steelers' 2.79 at the top of the position. They are one of the field's favorite defenses.

Lions (DK $2,700)

The Lions are 3.5-point favorites over the Vikings, who carry a 21.0 implied total. Their 2.61 value is third at defense, with a 6.6% optimal rate.

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