Cardinals–Cowboys carries the slate's highest total at 54.5, and the Cowboys' 30.5 implied total sits above every other team's. Ravens–Bills follows at 53.5, and the Bills share the second-highest implied total, 28.5, with the Bengals. Colts–Jaguars and Titans–Bengals tie for the third-highest total at 46.5, while Browns–Steelers brings up the bottom at 39.5. The main slate holds 11 games and locks Sunday, November 1 at 1:00 PM ET. These are early leans on early projected ownership that moves with the news.
Two early games carry rain in the current forecast. Titans–Bengals shows rain with a 40% chance of precipitation at Paycor Stadium, which cuts into passing and pushes volume to the run game. Colts–Jaguars shows light rain with a 46% chance of precipitation at EverBank Stadium, a forecast to check before Sunday. Chargers–Rams kicks off at 4:05 PM ET, and Chiefs–Broncos and Patriots–Dolphins follow at 4:25 PM ET. The main slate article posts closer to lock with the final read.
Top Stacks
ARI vs DAL (DK $21,200)
Players: Jacoby Brissett (DK $5,700); Trey McBride (DK $7,400); CeeDee Lamb (DK $8,100)
The Cardinals stack is Stack IQ's top stack, and it projects 57.4 points with 10.4% average ownership, a 12.7% optimal rate and 2.74 value. Brissett feeds McBride a 27% projected target share, and McBride has drawn 10.7 targets a game over his last three, level with his season. Brissett holds a 16.9 DK average over his last three behind the Cardinals' 24.0 implied total. Lamb brings it back from a 54.5 game total, with a 29% projected target share and a 52% anytime touchdown chance.
DET vs MIN (DK $21,700)
Players: Jared Goff (DK $6,600); Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK $8,000); Justin Jefferson (DK $7,100)
The Lions stack projects 57.5 points with 14.4% average ownership, a 13.1% optimal rate and 2.66 value. Goff's props sit at 263.5 passing yards and 1.5 touchdown passes behind the Lions' 24.8 implied total. St. Brown carries a questionable tag that the Friday report settles, and he holds a 30% projected target share with props at 76.5 yards and 6.5 catches. Jefferson brings it back in a 46.1-total game: the Lions allow the fourth-most DK points per game to receivers, and he carries a 28% projected target share and a 74.5-yard prop.
BUF vs BAL (DK $20,600)
Players: Josh Allen (DK $7,700); DJ Moore (DK $5,700); Zay Flowers (DK $7,200)
The Bills stack projects 56.0 points with 9.9% average ownership, a 9.8% optimal rate and 2.69 value. Allen leads a 28.5-point implied total with a 59% anytime touchdown chance. Moore carries a questionable tag that the Friday report settles, and he adds a 39% anytime touchdown chance on a 14% projected target share. Flowers brings it back from a 53.5 game total: the Bills allow the most DK points per game to receivers, and he draws a 29% projected target share with 10.3 targets a game over his last three.
Quarterback
Josh Allen (DK $7,700)
The Bills share the second-highest implied total on the slate, 28.5, with the Bengals, and Allen runs that offense against the Ravens. He scored 18.3 DK points against the Raiders on October 18 and holds a 24.1 DK average over his last three.
Allen's legs drive his ceiling: a 22% projected carry share sits behind a 40.5 ceiling that leads all quarterbacks. He is 8.1% owned with a 9.2% optimal rate.
Dak Prescott (DK $6,300)
The Cardinals allow the fourth-most DK points per game to quarterbacks, and Prescott faces them with the Cowboys' 30.5 implied total behind him. He scored 23.3 DK points against the Eagles on October 26, holds an 18.0 DK average over his last three, and carries an 8.6% optimal rate.
Trevor Lawrence (DK $6,200)
Lawrence comes in hot, with a 23.4 DK average over his last three and a 6.7% optimal rate. The Jaguars are 7.5-point favorites over the Colts with a 27.0 implied total. Light rain in the current forecast at EverBank Stadium is the check to watch before Sunday.
Running Back
Chase Brown (DK $6,300)
The Bengals are 10-point favorites over the Titans, and Brown carries the backfield with a 59% projected carry share and a 15% projected target share. The current forecast at Paycor Stadium calls for rain with a 40% chance of precipitation, and rain pushes volume to the run game.
The field leaves Brown light: he is 5.2% owned with an 18.1% optimal rate that tops all running backs, a leverage of 12.9. Build & Sim sizes a leverage play like him against the contest's real payouts. He has averaged 17.0 touches a game over his last three, level with his season.
Jahmyr Gibbs (DK $9,500)
Gibbs owns the Lions' backfield against the Vikings in a popular spot, with a 14.8% optimal rate. His props sit at 22.5 carries with a 75% anytime touchdown chance, and his 49.2 ceiling tops the position.
Ashton Jeanty (DK $6,700)
Jeanty's work as a receiver carries his case against the Jets. He caught every target thrown his way for 21.6 DK points against the Rams on October 25, with a 16.0 DK average over his last three. He is 9.4% owned with a 14.0% optimal rate.
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua (DK $8,600)
Nacua draws a 33% projected target share against the Chargers, and he has seen 13.7 targets a game over his last three, up on his season. The Rams are 6.5-point favorites with a 25.5 implied total.
His form backs that volume. He played through a calf issue on October 25 and scored 21.8 DK points against the Raiders, with a 25.5 DK average over his last three. A popular play, he carries a 17.1% optimal rate that leads the position.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK $8,000)
St. Brown is the Lions' lead receiver against the Vikings, coming off 27.2 DK points and 153 receiving yards against the Packers on October 25. He tweaked his ankle in that game, the team expected him to practice Thursday, and he carries a questionable tag that the Friday report settles. A popular play, he holds a 15.0% optimal rate, second among receivers.
CeeDee Lamb (DK $8,100)
Lamb catches passes in the slate's highest-total game against the Cardinals, and the Cowboys carry a 30.5 implied total. He caught two touchdowns for 24.4 DK points against the Eagles on October 26. One of the field's go-to receivers, he holds a 13.0% optimal rate.
Tight End
Trey McBride (DK $7,400)
McBride comes off 30.1 DK points against the Broncos on October 25, the game that brought his 400th career catch, and his last three games average 21.3. He faces the Cowboys in a 54.5-total game.
The field under-owns McBride: he is 6.6% owned with a 13.0% optimal rate that leads all tight ends, a leverage of 6.4. Books give him a 49% anytime touchdown chance.
Sam LaPorta (DK $5,100)
The Lions' tight end role runs through LaPorta against the Vikings, with a 19% projected target share and a prop at 51.5 receiving yards. A popular pick, he holds a 15.0 DK average over his last three and a 10.2% optimal rate, second at tight end.
Brenton Strange (DK $4,000)
Strange's targets are climbing against the Colts: 7.7 a game over his last three, up on his season, with a 13.2 DK average across those games. His 2.54 value is third at tight end, and the popular price tag carries a 7.3% optimal rate.
Defense
Steelers (DK $3,300)
The Steelers face the Browns' 18.0 implied total with a 9.1% optimal rate that leads all defenses. The Steelers are 3.5-point favorites with a 63% win chance.
The Steelers' 8.9 Hero Projection leads all defenses in a popular spot. They scored 8.0 DK points against the Saints on October 25, and books give them a 21% anytime touchdown chance.
Broncos (DK $2,300)
The Broncos draw the Chiefs in a 41.1-total game. Their 2.90 value tops the position, and they carry a 7.8% optimal rate at 3.2% ownership.
Raiders (DK $2,500)
The Raiders defense lands in a coin-flip game against the Jets, with a 50% win chance and the Jets' implied total at 23.0. At $2,500 it holds a 5.5% optimal rate on 3.6% ownership.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Ravens–Bills as the slate's main game, with Josh Allen (DK $7,700) as its default quarterback, Derrick Henry (DK $7,200) as a core back and Jacoby Brissett (DK $5,700) as the value quarterback. It keys on Lamar Jackson (DK $6,800): the market reports that a high ankle sprain kept him out of three straight games, watches whether Tyler Huntley (DK $4,800) starts, and splits on how high to rank Jackson. The market also splits on the Steelers defense, with some buzz for the Browns defense on the other side, and a minority of the market likes Chase Brown (DK $6,300) as a Bengals pivot. DFS Hero has the Steelers at a 9.1% optimal rate and Brown at an 18.1% optimal rate. DFS Hero agrees on Allen, whose 9.2% optimal rate sits above his 8.1% projected ownership, while Stack IQ ranks the Cardinals–Cowboys stack that Brissett anchors above Ravens–Bills.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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