Packers–Lions carries the highest total on the slate at 53.6, and the Lions' 28.3 implied points top every team. Bengals–Ravens follows at 51.1, and the 6-0 49ers bring a 27.0 implied total into 49ers–Falcons at 50.5. The 10-game main slate locks Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET. These are early leans on early projected ownership, and that ownership moves with the injury report, the lines and the forecast.
At the other end, Browns–Titans sits at the lowest total on the slate, 37.5. The Giants carry a 16.5 implied total as 10-point underdogs to the Texans. Packers–Lions and Rams–Raiders kick off at 4:25 PM ET, and Lamar Jackson (DK $6,700) carries a questionable tag that the Friday report settles. The game-day article posts one hour before lock with the final read.
Top Stacks
GB vs DET (DK $19,800)
Players: Jordan Love (DK $6,000); Matthew Golden (DK $6,000); Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK $7,800)
The Packers stack projects 61.3 points with 14.0% average ownership, a 16.2% optimal rate and 3.11 value. It is Stack IQ's top stack. Love's props carry 36.5 pass attempts and 282.5 passing yards, and Golden's 74.5-yard receiving line rides with them in the Packers' 25.3 implied total. St. Brown brings it back from the 53.6 game total with 7.5 receptions on his props.
BAL vs CIN (DK $21,700)
Players: Lamar Jackson (DK $6,700); Zay Flowers (DK $6,900); Ja'Marr Chase (DK $8,100)
The Ravens stack projects 59.5 points with 11.4% average ownership, an 11.7% optimal rate and 2.76 value. Jackson carries a questionable tag that the Friday report settles, and his 32% anytime touchdown chance pairs with Flowers' 28% projected target share in the Ravens' 26.8 implied total. Flowers has drawn 10.0 targets a game over his last three, up on his season. Chase brings it back from a 51.1 game total with a 79-yard receiving line and a 28% projected target share.
LV vs LAR (DK $21,900)
Players: Kirk Cousins (DK $5,800); Brock Bowers (DK $7,700); Puka Nacua (DK $8,400)
The Raiders stack projects 59.6 points with 16.2% average ownership, a 12.8% optimal rate and 2.71 value. Cousins carries a 20.9 DK average over his last three and a 237.5 passing-yard line. Bowers has drawn 10.0 targets a game over that stretch and has a 69.5-yard receiving line. Nacua brings it back from a 48.5 game total with a 57% anytime touchdown chance and 7.5 receptions on his props.
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (DK $6,600)
The 49ers carry the second-highest implied total on the slate at 27.0 against the Falcons, and Purdy runs that offense. His props sit at 243.5 passing yards and 18.5 rushing yards, with a 25% anytime touchdown chance.
Purdy runs too: he carries a 17% projected carry share. He scored 17.4 on October 19 against the Commanders, adding 28 rushing yards in a win. His 11.2% optimal rate is the top mark at quarterback, and he is one of the field's favorite passers.
Jordan Love (DK $6,000)
Love has accounted for two total touchdowns in six straight games, the newest a 21.2-point day against the Cowboys on October 18. He draws the Lions, who allow the most DK points per game to quarterbacks. He is 5.5% owned with a 9.1% optimal rate.
Matthew Stafford (DK $6,400)
The Rams carry a 26.5 implied total against the Raiders, and Stafford faces a defense that allows the sixth-most DK points per game to quarterbacks. His 276.5 passing-yard line backs a 20.6 DK average over his last three. He is a well-backed play with an 8.8% optimal rate.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey (DK $7,600)
McCaffrey owns the 49ers' backfield and a 23% projected target share against the Falcons. His props sit at 5.5 receptions and 60.5 rushing yards, with a 73% anytime touchdown chance.
He scored 31.7 on October 19 against the Commanders with two rushing touchdowns, beside a 21.7 DK average over his last three. He is 31.9% owned with a 32.5% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at running back.
Kyren Williams (DK $7,000)
Williams has handled 20.3 touches a game over his last three, up on his season, and he gets the Raiders, who allow the eighth-most DK points per game to running backs. That workload carries a 22.0 DK average over the same stretch. He pairs a 22.8% optimal rate with a crowd that likes him.
Bucky Irving (DK $6,100)
The Panthers allow the fifth-most DK points per game to running backs, and Irving draws them with 20.0 touches a game over his last three. His props carry 15.5 carries and 67.5 rushing yards. He is 11.4% owned with a 17.3% optimal rate, a leverage of 5.9 for Build & Sim to size.
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua (DK $8,400)
Nacua carries a 34% projected target share against the Raiders. He has seen 14.3 targets a game over his last three, up on his season, and his receiving line sits at 94.5 yards.
He scored 14.0 on October 18 against the Cardinals, and his last-three average stands at 28.5. His 26.8 projection is the top mark at receiver, and his 26.7% optimal rate comes on a popular play.
Matthew Golden (DK $6,000)
Golden gets the Lions, who allow the second-most DK points per game to receivers. He scored 25.4 on October 18 against the Cowboys, and his last-three average is 20.1. He is 14.9% owned with a 20.8% optimal rate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK $7,800)
St. Brown's props sit at 79.5 receiving yards and a 57% anytime touchdown chance against the Packers. He owns a 34% projected target share in the Lions' 28.3 implied total, the highest on the slate. A 19.3% optimal rate backs a play the crowd builds with.
Tight End
George Kittle (DK $5,700)
Deebo Samuel Sr. is out, and Kittle carries a 26% projected target share against the Falcons. He has drawn 6.7 targets a game over his last three, up on his season, and his receiving line sits at 68.5 yards.
A touchdown on October 19 against the Commanders gave him 17.9, beside a 14.1 DK average over his last three. He is 23.5% owned with a 24.3% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at tight end.
Sam LaPorta (DK $4,800)
LaPorta scored 19.8 on October 11 against the Cardinals, and he carries a 16.5 DK average over his last three into a game against the Packers. His 22% projected target share sits in the Lions' offense. He is 11.0% owned with a 14.8% optimal rate.
Tyler Higbee (DK $3,500)
Higbee plays a 64% projected snap share against the Raiders, who allow the seventh-most DK points per game to tight ends. He is 6.9% owned with a 12.4% optimal rate, a leverage of 5.5.
Defense
Texans (DK $3,400)
The Giants carry the lowest implied total on the slate at 16.5, and the Texans face them as 10-point favorites. The Texans bring a 6.7 DK average over their last three and a 14.2% optimal rate.
The Texans carry an 80% win chance, and their 9.7 projection is the top mark at defense. Their ceiling reaches 19.6, with a 20% chance at a defensive touchdown.
Buccaneers (DK $2,200)
The Buccaneers' defense has a 6.3 DK average over its last three, and it faces the Panthers. It is 6.0% owned with a 7.8% optimal rate, a leverage of 1.8.
Browns (DK $2,800)
The Browns' defense draws the Titans and their 18.0 implied total, and it carries a 5.9% optimal rate. The Browns bring a 9.0 DK average over their last three and a 53% win chance.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Packers–Lions, with Jordan Love (DK $6,000) and Jared Goff (DK $6,800) as its quarterbacks. It treats George Kittle (DK $5,700) as chalk and keys on the 49ers' receiver news. The market splits on the top running back among Jahmyr Gibbs (DK $9,800), Bijan Robinson (DK $8,500) and Christian McCaffrey (DK $7,600), and it splits on Bengals–Ravens until the ankle status of Lamar Jackson (DK $6,700) clears. Stack IQ agrees on the game: its stack of Love, Matthew Golden (DK $6,000) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK $7,800) carries a 16.2% optimal rate. DFS Hero has McCaffrey at a 32.5% optimal rate, and it backs Kittle with a 24.3% optimal rate against 23.5% ownership.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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