Two games share the slate's highest total at 51.6: Cowboys–Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium and Raiders–49ers at Levi's Stadium, where the 49ers carry the highest implied total at 30.8. The main slate runs 11 games and locks Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM ET. Lions–Dolphins has the third-highest total at 50.6. The Lions and the Cowboys share the second-highest implied total at 28.8, as 7-point and 6-point favorites. At the other end, Giants–Eagles sits at 40.1, the lowest total on the slate.
The current forecast calls for light rain at 86°F for Lions–Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, and a 43% chance of precipitation for Cardinals–Seahawks at Lumen Field. Both are checks to watch through the week. These are early leans built on early projected ownership, and that ownership moves with the injury report and the lines. The main slate article posts closer to lock with the final read.
Top Stacks
WAS vs LAR (DK $20,400)
Players: Jayden Daniels (DK $6,000); Stefon Diggs (DK $5,600); Puka Nacua (DK $8,800)
The Commanders stack projects 55.8 points with 12.8% average ownership, a 10.5% optimal rate and 2.73 value, and it is Stack IQ's top stack. Daniels carries a 24.7 DK average over his last three and a 24% projected carry share. Diggs adds a 25% projected target share and a 12.6 DK average over his last three behind the Commanders' 21.0 implied total. Nacua brings it back in a game with a 47.5 total, with a 43% projected target share and a 57% anytime touchdown chance.
DET vs MIA (DK $19,400)
Players: Jared Goff (DK $6,600); Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK $8,100); Malik Washington (DK $4,700)
The Lions stack projects 53.1 points with 8.8% average ownership, a 7.3% optimal rate and 2.75 value. Goff holds a 20.3 DK average over his last three and a 21.9 season average. St. Brown carries a 42% projected target share and 10.0 targets a game over his last three, behind the Lions' 28.8 implied total. Washington brings it back in a game with a 50.6 total, with a 22% projected target share against a Lions defense that allows the fourth-most DK points per game to receivers.
DAL vs IND (DK $19,700)
Players: Dak Prescott (DK $6,500); CeeDee Lamb (DK $8,300); Keenan Allen (DK $4,900)
The Cowboys stack projects 54.2 points with 15.7% average ownership, an 8.1% optimal rate and 2.74 value. Lamb has drawn 13.7 targets a game over his last three, up on his season. Prescott pairs a 15% anytime touchdown chance with the Cowboys' 28.8 implied total. Allen brings it back in a game tied for the slate's highest total at 51.6, and he carries a 12.0 DK average over his last three.
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett (DK $5,000)
Brissett is the top value at quarterback against the Seahawks, at 3.70. His 18.5 Hero Projection sits beside a 31.2 ceiling.
His 7.5% optimal rate is the top mark at quarterback. He is a popular play with a 13.3 floor.
Brock Purdy (DK $6,800)
Purdy draws the Raiders, who allow the fifth-most DK points per game to quarterbacks, and the 49ers carry a 30.8 implied total. He adds a 14% projected carry share and a 23% anytime touchdown chance.
His 22.9 Hero Projection is the top mark at quarterback, and his ceiling sits at 36.4. He is 6.9% owned with a 7.0% optimal rate.
Dak Prescott (DK $6,500)
Prescott ran for a touchdown and scored 19.8 DK points against the Cardinals on November 1, and he carries a 6.6% optimal rate against the Colts. His 21.9 Hero Projection is second at quarterback. He is a popular play with a 35.6 ceiling.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs (DK $10,000)
Gibbs is handling 29.7 touches a game over his last three, and the Lions carry a 28.8 implied total against the Dolphins. He scored 27.8 DK points against the Vikings on November 1, and his DK average over his last three is 29.9.
Gibbs carries an 82% anytime touchdown chance and a 22.1% optimal rate, the top mark among backs. The field crowds onto him at the top of the position, and his ceiling reaches 54.7.
Jonah Coleman (DK $5,300)
Coleman scored 20.4 DK points with a touchdown against the Chiefs on November 1. Next he faces a Panthers defense that allows the second-most DK points per game to running backs. He is 10.6% owned with a 15.4% optimal rate, a leverage of 4.8.
Christian McCaffrey (DK $8,000)
McCaffrey draws a Raiders defense that allows the sixth-most DK points per game to running backs, and his optimal rate sits at 14.4%. He carries a 23.7 DK average over his last three and a 72% anytime touchdown chance. He carries a questionable tag that the Friday report settles, and the 49ers kick off after lock, so he is a late-swap check.
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua (DK $8,800)
Nacua caught 11 of 12 targets and scored 25.0 DK points against the Chargers on November 1. Next he faces the Commanders. He carries a 20.3 DK average over his last three.
The field leans on Nacua heavily, and his 17.0% optimal rate is the top mark at receiver. His 45.0 ceiling sits beside Jaxon Smith-Njigba (DK $9,300) at 44.4.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK $8,100)
St. Brown carries a 57% anytime touchdown chance against the Dolphins, and his 14.8% optimal rate is second among receivers. He scored 12.6 DK points against the Vikings on November 1 and holds a 17.6 DK average over his last three.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (DK $9,300)
Smith-Njigba owns a 47% projected target share against the Cardinals and a 14.4% optimal rate. He holds a 29.8 DK average over his last three. The current forecast gives Lumen Field a 43% chance of precipitation, and the Seahawks kick off after lock, so he is a late-swap check.
Tight End
Hunter Henry (DK $4,500)
Henry has drawn 5.0 targets a game over his last three against the Packers, up on his season. His 11.6 DK average over that stretch tops his 9.2 season mark. His 11.3% optimal rate is the top mark at tight end.
He left the November 1 game early with a foot injury and carries a questionable tag that the Friday report settles. The Patriots kick off after lock, which makes him a late-swap check. He is a popular play with a 34% anytime touchdown chance and 2.65 value.
Tyler Warren (DK $4,600)
The Colts play the Cowboys in a game tied for the slate's highest total at 51.6, and Warren carries an 8.2% optimal rate. He is 2.1% owned with a leverage of 6.1, a play to let Build & Sim size.
George Kittle (DK $6,000)
The Raiders allow the fourth-most DK points per game to tight ends, and Kittle's optimal rate sits at 8.0%. He carries a 55% anytime touchdown chance. He scored 15.8 DK points on 10 targets against the Falcons on October 25.
Defense
Saints (DK $2,900)
The Saints defense carries a 9.7 DK average over its last three games, and it faces a Browns offense with a 20.5 implied total. Its 9.0% optimal rate is the top mark at the position.
Its 18.1 ceiling leads all defenses. The unit is a popular play with a 19% anytime touchdown chance and 2.81 value.
Eagles (DK $2,500)
The Eagles play the Giants in a game with a 40.1 total, the lowest on the slate. The unit is 5.5% owned with a 7.8% optimal rate, a leverage of 2.3.
Broncos (DK $3,000)
The Broncos face a Panthers offense with a 20.3 implied total, and the unit holds a 5.3% optimal rate. The defense carries a 17% anytime touchdown chance and a 16.6 ceiling, and it is the field's most popular defense.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Brock Purdy (DK $6,800) at quarterback and Jahmyr Gibbs (DK $10,000) as the default running back spend. Kenneth Walker III (DK $9,000) comes next, and Chuba Hubbard (DK $6,500) and Jonah Coleman (DK $5,300) are its cheaper backs. The market is split on Patrick Mahomes (DK $6,100), a minority of the market flags Quinshon Judkins (DK $5,400) and the Texans defense, and the news it watches is Rashee Rice (DK $6,400) returning for the Chiefs and trade talk around Jonathan Taylor (DK $7,500). DFS Hero agrees on Purdy, with a 7.0% optimal rate against 6.9% ownership, and has Gibbs at a 22.1% optimal rate and Walker at a leverage of 6.2. The market's core skips the Commanders, whose stack with Puka Nacua (DK $8,800) is Stack IQ's top stack.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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