Joe Fagnano (DK $8,400) is in line to start at quarterback for the Ravens, and the Jaguars come into M&T Bank Stadium as 10-point favorites with an 80% win chance. The game total sits at 39.5. The Jaguars are 5-2 and the Ravens 4-4 going in. This single-game showdown locks Thursday, November 5 at 8:15 PM ET, so every roster comes out of one game and one set of backfields.
The Captain reads run through the Jaguars. Bhayshul Tuten (DK $14,700) at Captain carries the top projection at running back. Parker Washington (DK $14,100) at Captain carries the top projection at receiver. Trevor Lawrence (DK $15,900) at Captain carries a 76.4% optimal rate in any seat.
Captain
Bhayshul Tuten (DK $9,800)
Tuten owns the Jaguars' backfield against the Ravens, with a 62% projected carry share and a 50% anytime touchdown chance. He scored 32.9 DraftKings points against the Colts on November 1 and averages 23.1 over his last three games.
His numbers point to the Captain seat: a 16.5% captain optimal rate and a 29.6 ceiling, the top ceiling at running back, at a $14,700 Captain price. He is questionable with an ankle and foot issue, and his coach said on November 4 that he was feeling better.
Parker Washington (DK $9,400)
Washington draws a 26% projected target share against a Ravens defense that allows the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to receivers. A popular play, he carries a 32.0 ceiling at a $14,100 Captain price.
Trevor Lawrence (DK $10,600)
Lawrence runs the Jaguars' offense against the Ravens and averages 25.8 DraftKings points over his last three games. He carries a 76.4% optimal rate in any seat and a leverage of 11.4. His 30.3 ceiling comes at a $15,900 Captain price.
Core Plays
Derrick Henry (DK $10,200)
Henry is the Ravens' lead back against the Jaguars, with a 63% projected carry share. His props set 17.5 carries and a 44% anytime touchdown chance, and he ran one in against the Bills on November 1 for 14.0 points.
The field and the sims line up on him: he is 42.8% owned with a 46.1% optimal rate and a leverage of 3.3. His 28.9 ceiling is second at running back.
Zay Flowers (DK $10,400)
Flowers draws a 26% projected target share against a Jaguars defense that allows the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to receivers. He is 43.1% owned with a 44.6% optimal rate.
Joe Fagnano (DK $8,400)
Fagnano is in line to start for the Ravens against the Jaguars, and his prop sets 28.5 pass attempts. He is the cheaper of the two quarterbacks, 32.7% owned with a 38.0% optimal rate and a leverage of 5.3.
Value Plays
Justice Hill (DK $3,200)
Hill catches passes out of the Ravens' backfield against the Jaguars, with an 11% projected target share. He drew eight targets against the Bills on November 1 and scored 7.5 points. He logged a full practice on November 3 after a groin issue.
He is the leverage play to let Build & Sim size: a leverage of 7.4, top among running backs, on a 28.1% optimal rate and 20.7% ownership. His ceiling sits at 18.7.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (DK $3,400)
Rodriguez carries no injury designation for Thursday against the Ravens, and his 50% anytime touchdown chance matches the 50% of Bhayshul Tuten (DK $9,800). Rodriguez scored 12.8 against the Colts on November 1 and averages 6.8 over his last three games. He carries a leverage of 4.1.
Correlation
Bhayshul Tuten (DK $14,700) at Captain pairs with the Jaguars defense and Jake Moody (DK $4,800), the Ravens' kicker. Tuten carries a 62% projected carry share on the side with an 80% win chance. The Jaguars defense carries a 32.8% optimal rate. Moody carries a 13.4% optimal rate and a leverage of 1.1.
Trevor Lawrence (DK $10,600) leads the second build, with Parker Washington (DK $9,400) and Brenton Strange (DK $7,400) as his pass catchers and Zay Flowers (DK $10,400) as the bring-back. Strange draws a 17% projected target share and a 3.5-reception prop. Flowers carries a 29.4 ceiling.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around the Jaguars, with Trevor Lawrence (DK $10,600) as its default captain, Parker Washington (DK $9,400) as its favorite pass catcher and the Jaguars defense as a default play against a backup quarterback. It keys on the status of Bhayshul Tuten (DK $9,800), a game-time decision after missing practice, and treats Chris Rodriguez Jr. (DK $3,400) as core chalk if Tuten sits. The market is split on Derrick Henry (DK $10,200), Joe Fagnano (DK $8,400) and Zay Flowers (DK $10,400), and a minority of the market looks to Nate Boerkircher (DK $1,600) as a cheap tight end. DFS Hero has Henry at a 46.1% optimal rate, Fagnano at 38.0% and Flowers at 44.6%. On the market's captain, DFS Hero agrees: Lawrence is 65.0% owned with a 76.4% optimal rate and a leverage of 11.4.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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