49ers–Cowboys carries the slate's highest total at 55.6, and the 49ers own the top team total at 29.8 inside AT&T Stadium. Bills–Jets follows with the second-highest total at 51.0, with the Bills implied for 29.5 as 8-point favorites. Panthers–Saints sits third at 48.8 in the Caesars Superdome, a near pick'em with both teams implied above 23. The Jaguars add a 28.5 implied total against the Titans. Ten games lock at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 15, and Rams–Cardinals, Seahawks–Raiders and 49ers–Cowboys kick off later in the afternoon.
The low end runs through Rams–Cardinals at 39.5, Texans–Browns at 39.6 and Vikings–Packers at 40.0, and the Cardinals' 15.0 implied total is the lowest on the board. Six of the ten games are indoors. The current forecast at Huntington Bank Field calls for light rain for Texans–Browns, and no open-air game shows wind of 15 mph or more. These are early leans built on early projected ownership, and that ownership moves with the injury report and the lines. The main slate article posts closer to lock with the final read.
Top Stacks
SF vs DAL (DK $22,300)
Players: Brock Purdy (DK $7,000); George Kittle (DK $6,500); CeeDee Lamb (DK $8,800)
The 49ers stack projects 62.9 points with 25.3% average ownership, a 22.5% optimal rate and 2.85 value. It is Stack IQ's top stack, built on a 49ers offense with a 29.8 implied total against the Cowboys. Books set Purdy at 255.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns, and Kittle at 5.5 receptions. Lamb brings it back in a 55.6-total game with a 7.5-reception line and a 56% anytime touchdown chance.
NO vs CAR (DK $19,300)
Players: Tyler Shough (DK $5,600); Chris Olave (DK $7,000); Tetairoa McMillan (DK $6,700)
The Saints stack projects 52.4 points with 6.8% average ownership, a 7.5% optimal rate and 2.76 value. Shough averages 20.5 DK points over his last three, and Olave draws 9.7 targets a game over that span, level with his season, in a Saints offense implied for 25.0. Books give Olave a 46% anytime touchdown chance. McMillan brings it back from a 48.8-total game with a 45% anytime touchdown chance and a 32.1 ceiling.
LV vs SEA (DK $22,200)
Players: Kirk Cousins (DK $5,300); Brock Bowers (DK $7,600); Jaxon Smith-Njigba (DK $9,300)
The Raiders stack projects 57.7 points with 8.9% average ownership, a 13.9% optimal rate and 2.69 value. Cousins averages 21.4 DK points over his last three, and books give Bowers a 48% anytime touchdown chance. Smith-Njigba brings it back from a 43.1-total game with 11.0 targets a game over his last three, level with his season. Books give him a 53% anytime touchdown chance.
Quarterback
Shedeur Sanders (DK $4,600)
Sanders threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints on November 8, a 22.7-point game, and he faces the Texans next. That game sits beside a 7.6 DK average over his last three. The current forecast at Huntington Bank Field calls for light rain, a check to watch before kickoff.
The Browns' starting call is the news to follow this week, and Sanders carries a 32.2 ceiling into it. He is 2.8% owned with a 9.3% optimal rate, the top mark at quarterback, and a leverage of 6.5.
Josh Allen (DK $7,500)
The Bills carry a 29.5 implied total against the Jets, the second-highest team total on the slate, and Allen runs that offense. Books give him a 65% anytime touchdown chance, and he is 7.7% owned with an 8.4% optimal rate.
Drew Lock (DK $5,000)
Sam Darnold is out, and Lock takes the Seahawks' starting job against the Raiders, who allow the second-most DK points per game to quarterbacks. His oblique tests came back good on November 9, and he carries a questionable tag that the Friday report settles. Seahawks–Raiders kicks off after lock, which makes him a late-swap check. He is 4.3% owned with an 8.3% optimal rate and a leverage of 4.0.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson (DK $8,200)
Robinson carries the Falcons' backfield with 23.0 touches a game over his last three, level with his season, and he faces the Chiefs. He posted 29.7 points against the Bengals on November 8, with an 18.2 DK average over his last three.
Books give Robinson a 67% anytime touchdown chance. His 23.9 Hero Projection sits a hair above the 23.7 that Kenneth Walker III (DK $9,200) and Christian McCaffrey (DK $8,500) carry. He is one of the slate's most popular backs, and his 27.1% optimal rate is the top mark at the position.
Alvin Kamara (DK $5,000)
The Panthers allow the second-most DK points per game to running backs, and Kamara is the Saints' lead back in a game with a 48.8 total. He is 5.4% owned with a 19.6% optimal rate and a leverage of 14.2.
Christian McCaffrey (DK $8,500)
McCaffrey has 19.3 touches a game over his last three, up on his season, against the Cowboys, and he carries a 19.5% optimal rate. Books give him a 78% anytime touchdown chance, and he averages 25.5 DK points over his last three. He is a popular piece of the 49ers' attack.
Wide Receiver
Drake London (DK $6,600)
London led the Falcons in receiving against the Bengals on November 8, catching every target for 68 yards and 11.8 points, and he gets the Chiefs next. He draws 7.0 targets a game over his last three, level with his season.
London's 2.84 value is the best at wide receiver, with an 18.8 Hero Projection and a 35.7 ceiling. He is one of the slate's most popular receivers, and his 25.0% optimal rate backs that crowd.
Justin Jefferson (DK $6,800)
The Packers allow the sixth-most DK points per game to wide receivers, and Jefferson gets them with 9.0 targets a game over his last three, up on his season. He is a popular pick with a 17.6% optimal rate and a 2.73 value.
CeeDee Lamb (DK $8,800)
Jake Ferguson is out, which leaves the Cowboys' top tight end targets open, and Lamb faces the 49ers with a 17.5% optimal rate. Books set his receiving line at 89.5 yards with a 56% anytime touchdown chance, and he averages 24.9 DK points over his last three. He is one of the field's favorite receivers.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts Sr. (DK $3,800)
Pitts draws 5.0 targets a game over his last three, up on his season, against a Chiefs defense that allows the sixth-most DK points per game to tight ends. His 25.8 ceiling sits on a 10.8 Hero Projection, and books give him a 26% anytime touchdown chance.
Pitts' 2.83 value ties George Kittle (DK $6,500) for the third-best value at tight end. He is 8.0% owned with a 17.2% optimal rate and a leverage of 9.2, a leverage spot for Build & Sim to size.
George Kittle (DK $6,500)
Kittle has 8.3 targets a game over his last three, up on his season, in a 49ers offense with a 29.8 implied total against the Cowboys. Books give him a 55% anytime touchdown chance. He is a popular tight end with a 14.2% optimal rate.
Brock Bowers (DK $7,600)
Bowers averages 22.6 DK points over his last three and carries an 11.8% optimal rate. He faces the Seahawks with an 18.8 Hero Projection, the top projection at tight end.
Defense
Jaguars (DK $4,000)
The Jaguars are 10.5-point favorites against the Titans, with an 81% win chance. They scored 11.0 against the Ravens on November 5 and average 10.7 over their last three.
Books give the Jaguars a 20% anytime touchdown chance, and their 9.4 Hero Projection is the second-best at the position. They are 3.6% owned with a 6.5% optimal rate.
Vikings (DK $2,800)
Vikings–Packers carries a 40.0 game total, among the three lowest on the slate, and the Vikings defense gets the Packers at Lambeau Field. The Vikings are 2.5% owned with a 5.5% optimal rate and a leverage of 3.0.
Browns (DK $2,500)
The Browns defense gets the Texans in a game with a 39.6 total, the second-lowest on the slate. The Browns are 2.8% owned with a 5.1% optimal rate and a leverage of 2.3.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around 49ers–Cowboys, with Christian McCaffrey (DK $8,500) as its default back, and around the Seahawks against the Raiders, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (DK $9,300) as the piece in that game. It splits on the Seahawks' quarterback spot and on how far to trust the 49ers, and it watches the news on Drew Lock (DK $5,000) and on whether Kirk Cousins (DK $5,300) holds the Raiders' starting job. DFS Hero has Lock at an 8.3% optimal rate. A contrarian view tags the Jaguars as the safest favorite on the slate, and DFS Hero gives the Jaguars defense a 6.5% optimal rate. DFS Hero agrees on the core game: Stack IQ ranks the 49ers stack first, and McCaffrey carries a 19.5% optimal rate.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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