Kyler Murray is out, and Carson Wentz (DK $9,000) starts for the Vikings against the Bills on Monday night. Both teams come in at 6-1. The Bills are 3.5-point favorites with a 63% win chance, and the game total sits at 45.0. It is a one-game showdown at U.S. Bank Stadium that locks at 8:15 PM ET, and statuses and ownership can move before then.
Josh Allen (DK $17,100) is the Captain to start from, with his rushing role behind a 56% anytime touchdown chance. Justin Jefferson (DK $14,700) is the Vikings' answer at Captain. James Cook III (DK $15,600) carries the Bills' backfield workload into the same seat.
Captain
Josh Allen (DK $11,400)
Allen's legs drive the Captain case against the Vikings. His anytime touchdown chance is 56%, and his rushing-yard line is 31.5. His ceiling reaches 39.4, and he costs $17,100 in the Captain seat.
He scored 27.6 against the Ravens on November 1, and his last-three average is 26.8. The field puts him at Captain 21.4% of the time, against a 26.8% captain optimal rate.
Justin Jefferson (DK $9,800)
The Bills allow the fifth-most DK points per game to receivers, and Jefferson is the Vikings' Captain with Jauan Jennings out. The field puts him at Captain 15.2% of the time, against an 18.1% captain optimal rate. His ceiling reaches 32.1, and he costs $14,700 at Captain.
James Cook III (DK $10,400)
Cook has handled 24.7 touches a game over his last three against his season, a rising workload against the Vikings. He is a popular play with a 44.4% optimal rate, the top mark among backs. His ceiling reaches 29.9, and he costs $15,600 at Captain.
Core Plays
Carson Wentz (DK $9,000)
Kyler Murray is out, and Wentz takes over the Vikings' offense against a Bills defense that allows the fourth-most DK points per game to quarterbacks. He was named Monday's starter on November 5. His pass-attempt line sits at 30.5.
Passing volume carries his ceiling to 29.2, with a passing-yard line of 214.5. He is 52.3% owned with a 53.5% optimal rate.
T.J. Hockenson (DK $5,400)
Hockenson caught a touchdown in each of his two newest games, scoring 13.5 against the Colts on October 25, then 15.8 against the Lions on November 1, and he carries a 45.1% optimal rate. Against the Bills, his 2.13 value tops the tight ends. He is one of the field's favorite pieces.
DJ Moore (DK $7,800)
Moore's targets are climbing against the Vikings: 6.3 a game over his last three, up on his season. He carries no injury designation for Monday and scored 17.6 against the Ravens on November 1. He is 34.2% owned with a 36.3% optimal rate.
Value Plays
Bills (DK $4,000)
The Bills carry a 63% win chance and a 24.6% optimal rate, and their defense faces Carson Wentz (DK $9,000) with Kyler Murray out. The unit projects for 7.6 points at a 1.90 value. At this price it fits under Josh Allen (DK $17,100) at Captain.
The defense scored 14.0 against the Ravens on November 1 and averages 5.7 over its last three. Its ceiling reaches 15.1, with a 15% anytime touchdown chance, and it is a common choice at the position.
Ty Johnson (DK $3,400)
Johnson is the Bills' receiving back against the Vikings, with a receptions line of 1.5. He practiced in full on Friday after an illness kept him out Thursday. His 1.67 value is the best at running back, and he is 13.7% owned with a 16.1% optimal rate.
Correlation
Josh Allen (DK $17,100) at Captain pairs with Dalton Kincaid (DK $7,400) and Khalil Shakir (DK $7,200), with Jordan Addison (DK $6,800) as the bring-back. Shakir averages 11.9 over his last three, and Kincaid carries a 32.6% optimal rate. Addison has a leverage of 7.8, a bring-back to let Build & Sim size.
Jordan Mason (DK $6,400) faces a Bills defense that allows the sixth-most DK points per game to backs, with an 11.5 carries line. Pair him with the Vikings defense, at a leverage of 0.6. Tyler Bass (DK $4,600) completes the build on the Bills' side with a 15.3 average over his last three.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Josh Allen (DK $11,400) at quarterback and Captain, takes Justin Jefferson (DK $9,800) on the Vikings' side, and treats James Cook III (DK $10,400) as the default back. It splits on Dalton Kincaid (DK $7,400) and on whether Jordan Mason (DK $6,400) or Aaron Jones Sr. (DK $7,000) leads the Vikings' backfield. It watches injuries on the Bills' offensive line and news on DJ Moore (DK $7,800) and his shoulder. DFS Hero has Moore at a 36.3% optimal rate. DFS Hero agrees with the market on Allen, with a 70.8% optimal rate against 69.3% ownership.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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