The Giants are 2-point favorites over the Commanders at MetLife Stadium, with a 41.0 total and a 55% win chance for the Giants. They come in 5-2-1 against a 2-5-1 Commanders side. The one-game Showdown locks at 8:15 PM ET Thursday, November 12. Light rain is in the kickoff forecast, 49°F with a 68% chance of precipitation, so check it before lock.
Jayden Daniels (DK $15,000) at Captain is the read to pay for. J.J. McCarthy (DK $13,200) and Malik Nabers (DK $16,500) are the other Captain picks, one from each side of the ball for the Giants.
Captain
Jayden Daniels (DK $10,000)
Daniels draws the Giants, who allow the fifth-most DK points per game to quarterbacks. His rushing line sits at 37.5 yards on 6.5 carries. He scored 15.6 against the Rams on November 8 and averages 18.2 over his last three.
The field underweights him in the Captain seat. He carries 18.0% captain ownership against a 23.7% captain optimal rate. His 31.6 ceiling backs the $15,000 Captain price.
J.J. McCarthy (DK $8,800)
The Commanders allow the fourth-most DK points per game to quarterbacks, and McCarthy practiced fully on November 10 after a hip issue. He sits at 13.6% captain ownership against a 17.0% captain optimal rate, with a 28.6 ceiling at a $13,200 Captain price.
Malik Nabers (DK $11,000)
Nabers draws 10.7 targets a game over his last three, level with his season, and faces the Commanders. The field likes him in any seat, and he backs it with a 48.7% optimal rate, a 34.2 ceiling and a $16,500 Captain price.
Core Plays
Isaiah Likely (DK $8,200)
The Commanders allow the third-most DK points per game to tight ends, and Likely's receiving line sits at 46.5 yards on 4.5 catches. He scored 16.3 with a touchdown against the Eagles on November 8. He averages 14.5 over his last three.
Likely is one of the slate's most popular plays, and the numbers agree. His 41.2% optimal rate is the top mark at tight end, with a 26.3 ceiling and a 33% anytime touchdown chance.
Cam Skattebo (DK $9,000)
Skattebo is the Giants' lead back against the Commanders, with the top optimal rate at running back at 37.6%. He practiced fully on November 10 after a hamstring issue. His line sits at 15.5 carries with a 45% anytime touchdown chance. Before he missed the Giants' last game, he scored 22.1 against the Texans on October 25, with a 12.6 average over his last three.
Rachaad White (DK $7,600)
White is the Commanders' lead back against the Giants, at 11.0 touches a game over his last three. He is 33.0% owned with a 36.7% optimal rate and averages 12.5 DK points over his last three.
Value Plays
Treylon Burks (DK $3,600)
Burks practiced on a limited basis on November 10 after a foot issue. He drew 5.3 targets a game over his last three, up on his season, before he missed the Commanders' last game. In his last game played, he scored 11.1 on 81 receiving yards against the Eagles on November 1. He faces the Giants.
He is 17.1% owned with a 22.0% optimal rate, a leverage of 4.9 that leads all receivers. His 1.68 value makes him a leverage play to let Build & Sim size under an expensive Captain.
Darnell Mooney (DK $4,000)
Mooney practiced fully on November 10 after a chest issue, and the Commanders allow the seventh-most DK points per game to receivers. He scored 8.0 against the Eagles on November 8, with a 3.9 average over his last three. He is 9.6% owned with a 10.4% optimal rate.
Correlation
The first build puts Jayden Daniels (DK $15,000) at Captain with Stefon Diggs (DK $9,200) and Chig Okonkwo (DK $5,800). Malachi Fields (DK $5,000) brings it back from the Giants. Diggs carries a 35.5% optimal rate and a leverage of 4.7. Okonkwo is up to 6.0 targets a game over his last three, and Fields draws 6.0 a game over the same stretch with a leverage of 2.8. Build & Sim fills the open seats and simulates each version against the contest's real payouts.
The second build pairs Austin Ekeler (DK $4,600) with the Commanders defense and Giants kicker Dominic Zvada (DK $5,400). Ekeler has the top value at running back at 1.83, with a leverage of 6.3. Zvada scored 17.0 against the Eagles on November 8 and averages 9.3 over his last three. The Commanders defense carries a 14.1 ceiling.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Jayden Daniels (DK $10,000) at Captain and the two tight ends, Isaiah Likely (DK $8,200) and Chig Okonkwo (DK $5,800). Malik Nabers (DK $11,000) and Treylon Burks (DK $3,600) fill out its core. It splits on whether the game runs through the ground or the air and on Okonkwo's matchup, and a minority of the market reaches for Theo Johnson (DK $2,600) and Malachi Fields (DK $5,000). The news it keys on is a reported season-ending loss of Terry McLaurin for the Commanders, with Rachaad White (DK $7,600) reported as the feature back. It also watches Cam Skattebo (DK $9,000) returning from his hamstring injury and J.J. McCarthy (DK $8,800) expected to play through his hip. DFS Hero agrees on the Captain: Daniels carries a 66.5% optimal rate in any seat against 64.6% ownership, and a 23.7% captain optimal rate against 18.0% captain ownership.
Take these reads into the DFS Hero Workspace: shape the player pool, then Build & Sim builds your lineups and simulates every one against your contest's real payouts in one click. Stack IQ, late swap and Hero Chat sit in the same screen. Get Full Access for $1: $1 for 5 days, cancel anytime.
The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
More NFL DFS Analysis
The DFS engine that never stops working.
Build, simulate, and fill your entries in one Workspace, across every sport. $1 for 5 days.