NHL DraftKings Picks: Thursday Main Slate (November 5)

The Lightning and the Oilers set the slate. The Lightning carry the highest implied total at 4.2 against the Blackhawks, who sit lowest at 2.3. The Oilers follow at 4.0 against the Ducks, in the game with the slate's highest total at 7.0. Bruins–Penguins holds the second-highest total at 6.6, with each side at 3.3. Eleven games lock at 7:00 PM ET Thursday, and Ducks–Oilers at 8:00 PM ET and Predators–Avalanche at 9:30 PM ET start after it.

Semyon Varlamov (DK $7,200) projects in net for the Islanders against the Hurricanes, and his 12.5 projection leads all goalies. Jordan Binnington (DK $7,300) projects for the Blues against the Devils. Matt Tomkins (DK $8,000) projects for the Oilers against the Ducks and Lukas Dostal (DK $7,400). Andrei Vasilevskiy (DK $8,500) projects for the Lightning against the Blackhawks. Every goalie on the slate is a projected starter.

Injury Watch

• Dylan Larkin (Red Wings, out)
• Zach Hyman (Oilers, out)
• Josh Morrissey (Jets, out)
• Miro Heiskanen (DK $5,600) (Stars, day-to-day)
• Mathew Barzal (Islanders, out)
• Troy Terry (Ducks, out)
• Patrick Kane (Blackhawks, out)
• Josh Manson (Avalanche, out)

Top Stacks

EDM PP1 vs ANA (DK $34,200)

Players: Connor McDavid (DK $9,500); Leon Draisaitl (DK $8,500); Evan Bouchard (DK $7,500); Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (DK $5,400); Kasperi Kapanen (DK $3,300)

The Oilers stack projects 66.4 points with 17.1% average ownership, a 21.9% optimal rate and 1.96 value. It is Stack IQ's top stack, and the Oilers carry a 4.0 implied total in a game with a 7.0 total. Nugent-Hopkins, on line 2 and PP1, had a goal and an assist for 15.0 DK points against the Devils on November 3. Kapanen had two assists in a 10.0-point game the same night.

COL PP1 vs NSH (DK $31,700)

Players: Nathan MacKinnon (DK $9,300); Cale Makar (DK $7,300); Martin Necas (DK $6,700); Nazem Kadri (DK $5,100); T.J. Hughes (DK $3,300)

The Avalanche stack projects 58.0 points with 8.6% average ownership, an 8.9% optimal rate and 1.88 value. The Avalanche carry a 3.8 implied total, tied for the third highest on the slate. Kadri, on line 3 and PP1, scored against the Blue Jackets on November 3 for 10.0 DK points and averages 13.7 over his last three. T.J. Hughes plays line 2 and PP1 and averages 6.8 over his last three.

TBL PP1 vs CHI (DK $29,000)

Players: Nikita Kucherov (DK $8,400); Jake Guentzel (DK $6,600); Brayden Point (DK $5,700); Anthony Cirelli (DK $4,100); Charle-Edouard D'Astous (DK $4,200)

The Lightning stack projects 58.0 points with 16.3% average ownership, a 9.6% optimal rate and 2.01 value. The Lightning carry a 4.2 implied total and a 78% win chance. Point, on line 1, scored twice against the Red Wings on November 3 for 23.0 DK points and averages 17.9 over his last three. Cirelli, on line 2, scored on five shots for 19.0 the same night.

Center

Connor McDavid (DK $9,500)

McDavid plays on the Oilers' top line and PP1 against the Ducks, and the Oilers carry a 4.0 implied total. His 14.2% optimal rate tops the center position, with an 18.1 projection. The field builds around him.

His form runs through the power play. He had a goal and a power-play assist in a 25.5-point game against the Rangers on November 1, then 10.6 against the Devils on November 3. He averages 15.2 over his last three and 20.7 across 16 games this season.

Nathan MacKinnon (DK $9,300)

Against the Predators, MacKinnon plays line 1 and PP1 for an Avalanche team with a 3.8 implied total, and he carries a 10.8% optimal rate. He had two assists, one on the power play, against the Blue Jackets on November 3, and he averages 14.5 over his last three and 18.0 this season. His 16.4 projection is second among centers.

Mark Scheifele (DK $6,200)

Scheifele had two assists in a 14.5-point game against the Canadiens on November 3, averages 11.7 over his last three and carries an 8.0% optimal rate. He plays line 1 and PP1 for the Jets against the Canucks, with a 12.4 projection and 2.00 value. He is a well-backed way into the Jets.

Wing

Leon Draisaitl (DK $8,500)

Ducks–Oilers carries a 7.0 total, and Draisaitl plays line 1 and PP1 for the Oilers against the Ducks. His 12.8% optimal rate leads the wings, with a 16.9 projection and a 41.8 ceiling. The crowd is with him.

He had two assists against the Rangers on November 1, then a power-play goal against the Devils on November 3, each worth 14.5 DK points. He averages 14.0 over his last three and 18.6 this season.

Kyle Connor (DK $7,300)

Connor scored twice against the Canadiens on November 3, once on the power play, for 32.0 DK points, and he averages 17.8 over his last three. He plays line 1 and PP1 for the Jets against the Canucks. His 11.6% optimal rate is second among wings, and he is a popular wing.

Nikita Kucherov (DK $8,400)

The Lightning carry the top implied total on the slate at 4.2 against the Blackhawks, and Kucherov plays line 1 and PP1 with an 11.2% optimal rate. He had two assists against the Red Wings on November 3 for 14.5 DK points and averages 14.9 over his last three. He projects for 16.3.

Defense

Evan Bouchard (DK $7,500)

Bouchard scored a power-play goal and added two assists against the Rangers on November 1, then had a goal and a power-play assist against the Devils on November 3. He averages 17.7 over his last three and 18.3 this season. He plays line 1 and PP1 against the Ducks.

The Oilers carry a 4.0 implied total, and Bouchard's 14.4 projection and 10.0% optimal rate both lead the defensemen. His 33.1 ceiling fits that top role. He is the chalk on the blue line.

Cale Makar (DK $7,300)

Makar scored and added a power-play assist against the Blue Jackets on November 3 for 26.6 DK points, averages 23.0 over his last three and carries an 8.0% optimal rate. He plays line 1 and PP1 for the Avalanche against the Predators. His 30.6 ceiling is second among defensemen.

Zach Werenski (DK $7,100)

Werenski plays line 1 and PP1 for the Blue Jackets against the Stars, and his 13.3 projection matches Cale Makar (DK $7,300). He is 4.2% owned with a 7.0% optimal rate, a leverage of 2.8. He is a leverage play for Build & Sim to size.

Goalie

Semyon Varlamov (DK $7,200)

Varlamov was named the Islanders' starter against the Hurricanes on November 5, and his 12.5 projection is the top mark among goalies. He won his newest start, 9.5 DK points against the Predators on October 27. He averages 9.6 over his last three.

Goalie builds across the field run through him. His 9.5% optimal rate leads the position, with a 30.1 ceiling and 1.74 value.

Jordan Binnington (DK $7,300)

The Blues named Binnington their starter against the Devils on November 5. His 6.3% optimal rate ranks second among goalies, with 1.59 value. He is a well-used goalie on this slate.

Matt Tomkins (DK $8,000)

Tomkins beat the Rangers on November 1 for 21.4 DK points in his one start this season. He was slated on November 5 to start against the Ducks. The Oilers carry a 63% win chance behind him, and his 5.8% optimal rate comes with plenty of support from the field.

What The Market Is Saying

The market builds around the Lightning against the Blackhawks, with the Brayden Point (DK $5,700), Nikita Kucherov (DK $8,400) and Jake Guentzel (DK $6,600) line as its headline stack. Its other anchor is the Oilers against the Ducks, with Connor McDavid (DK $9,500) as its default build-around. It also leans on the Jets against the Canucks while splitting on how that game plays out, and a minority of the market looks to Connor Bedard (DK $6,500) and Roman Josi (DK $6,000) for shot volume. The news it keys on is Semyon Varlamov (DK $7,200) starting for the Islanders, Zach Hyman out for the Oilers and the Blackhawks on the second half of a back-to-back. DFS Hero agrees on the Oilers: Stack IQ ranks the Oilers PP1 its top stack, and McDavid carries a 14.2% optimal rate.

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