FREE 09/29 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top MNF DFS Plays

The Week 4 NFL schedule concludes with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Jets at Dolphins matchup carries a 44.5 total with Miami favored by 2.5, setting up a balanced game where both sides could contribute points without going overboard. Over in Denver, the Bengals face a Broncos team that’s a 7.5-point favorite, also at 44.5 total, which points to some potential value on the underdog side if Cincinnati keeps it close.

QB Plays

Bo Nix ($6,000)

Bo Nix enters Week 4 with strong dual-threat momentum, completing 22 of 30 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns in his last outing while adding consistent rushing production across three starts, including a season-high 33 yards on eight carries against the Chargers. His projection of 19.6 DK points at a $6,000 salary delivers 3.26x value, ranking him third in tournament scoring potential with an 8.7% boom rate that highlights his ceiling for multi-touchdown games. This usage pattern, blending efficient passing with reliable scrambling, establishes a secure floor while capitalizing on Denver’s offensive scheme that funnels opportunities his way.

The matchup against Cincinnati’s defense opens prime pathways for Nix’s skill set, with the Bengals allowing ample passing volume and struggling against mobile quarterbacks in recent weeks. Projected ownership around 41.5% provides solid tournament leverage without excessive popularity, especially in a game with a 44.5 total where Denver’s -7.5 spread suggests a pass-heavy script favoring his red-zone involvement. At this salary, Nix’s combination of projected output and upside makes him a cornerstone for building balanced lineups with high-ceiling potential.

Honorable Mentions

• Justin Fields ($5,500)

RB Plays

De’Von Achane ($7,000)

De’Von Achane continues to showcase his dual-threat prowess as Miami’s primary back, racking up 91 total yards on 12 carries and seven receptions in Week 3 while bouncing back from a slower ground game the prior week with efficient runs including multiple double-digit gains. His receiving role remains a standout strength, converting seven of nine targets for 29 yards and following up a monster 92-yard, one-touchdown receiving line against New England, which highlights his consistent involvement in the passing attack even as the backfield shares carries. At a $7,000 salary, Achane’s 2.87x value projection aligns with his 20.1 DraftKings points forecast, delivering a secure floor through high-volume usage that positions him as the tournament’s No. 3-ranked player with a 23.3% boom rate for explosive upside.

Facing the Jets on Monday night in a 44.5-point total game where Miami holds a -2.5 spread edge, Achane’s workload sets up perfectly for another multi-faceted outing, especially with his red-zone exposure and short-area receiving reliability boosting ceiling potential. His 70.2% optimal lineup inclusion reflects the model’s confidence in his floor-ceiling balance, while 73.7% projected ownership provides tournament stability in a high-scoring affair under mild weather conditions with light winds. This combination makes Achane a cornerstone recommendation for building competitive DFS rosters.

Honorable Mentions

• J.K. Dobbins ($5,800)

WR Plays

Garrett Wilson ($6,200)

Garrett Wilson heads into Monday night’s matchup against the Dolphins with elite target volume, having seen 30 targets across his last three games for 21 receptions, 229 yards, and two touchdowns, including a standout 10-catch, 84-yard, one-score performance in Week 3 despite a backup quarterback. As the Jets’ clear alpha receiver, Wilson’s role ensures consistent downfield opportunities, with his 16.2 projected DraftKings points offering 2.61x value at just $6,200 salary, making him a cornerstone for cash and tournament builds alike. This usage trend provides a reliable floor backed by his recent efficiency, positioning him for another multi-reception outing in a game boasting a 44.5 total.

The Dolphins present an inviting spot for Wilson’s big-play ability, especially with his tournament rank of 5 and 15.9% boom rate highlighting massive ceiling potential in GPPs. At 51.7% optimal lineup percentage and 58.3% projected ownership, he delivers leverage against the field while capitalizing on his red-zone exposure, as evidenced by that Week 3 score. His combination of volume, projection, and salary efficiency makes Wilson a must-target for stacking with Jets’ offensive upside in this prime-time clash.

Honorable Mentions

• Tyreek Hill ($6,500)

TE Plays

Mike Gesicki ($2,900)

Mike Gesicki steps into a prime spot against Denver’s defense, where his role as Cincinnati’s reliable tight end provides consistent target volume in a high-total game projected at 44.5 points. With three targets in each of his last two outings, including a red-zone carry that positioned him at the one-yard line, Gesicki maintains steady involvement in the Bengals’ passing attack, especially as they hold a -7.5 spread favorite status that favors offensive opportunities. His projected 6.1 DK points deliver exceptional 2.11x value at just $2,900 salary, ranking him No. 1 in GPP formats and optimal lineups at 28.9%, making him a cornerstone for building efficient rosters with tournament upside.

Gesicki’s moderate 25.2% projected ownership sits near the field average of 18.4%, offering solid leverage without excessive popularity that could dilute stacks. The Bengals’ pass-heavy tendencies in favorable weather—71 degrees with minimal wind—enhance his floor through short-area catches, while his 2.2% boom rate highlights ceiling potential for multi-touchdown outings in a matchup ripe for tight end production. At this price point, Gesicki combines secure usage metrics with explosive red-zone exposure, positioning him as a must-target for cash and tournament builds seeking balanced value and scoring potential.

Honorable Mentions

• Evan Engram ($3,700)

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