FREE 10/02 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top TNF DFS Plays

Thursday Night Football delivers another NFC West clash, and this time we’re heading to Los Angeles for a showdown between the Rams and the San Francisco 49ers. With both teams sitting atop the division at 3-1, this game has some serious implications, even if it’s still early in the season. The total sits at a respectable 44.0, and the fact that it’s a dome game eliminates any weather concerns. This familiarity between these two teams, who split their series last year with each winning on the road, adds another layer to the DFS puzzle. The 49ers are absolutely ravaged by injuries, with George Kittle, Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings all out, leaving Mac Jones at QB and a patchwork receiving corps. Conversely, the Rams are relatively healthy. Weather doesn’t appear to be a concern tonight; focus on matchup and usage.

From a DFS perspective, the stark contrast in team health is a massive storyline. The 49ers’ offensive struggles are evident; they’ve scored the fewest points in the division, and their passing game is severely compromised, despite Christian McCaffrey’s presence. The Rams, on the other hand, boast a strong pass offense (8th in EPA per dropback) and a pass defense that ranks third in EPA per dropback and second in sacks. While the 49ers’ pass defense is solid (9th in EPA per dropback), their inability to generate pressure (31st in pressure rate) could be a vulnerability. Considering both teams’ struggles running the ball, and the 49ers’ injury woes, we’re likely looking at a game where the Rams’ healthy weapons could shine, and McCaffrey will be forced to carry an enormous load for San Francisco. Let’s dive into the top Captain and Flex plays for Thursday’s showdown slate!

Top Captain Plays

Puka Nacua ($17,400)

Puka Nacua has been an absolute target hog with 15 targets in back-to-back games, including an explosion for 170 yards and a touchdown last week against Indianapolis. His 1.5x captain multiplier on a $17,400 salary is maximized by a staggering 35.03 DK points projection, offering a robust 2.01x value, which is critical in a high-stakes divisional matchup against the 49ers. Nacua’s consistent target share and dual-threat ability, including a 45-yard rushing touchdown earlier this season, solidify his ceiling potential, and his moderate 9.5% captain ownership allows for significant leverage against the field.

Honorable Mention

• Christian McCaffrey ($17,100)

Top UTIL Plays

1. Matthew Stafford ($10,400)

Matthew Stafford completed 29 of 41 pass attempts for 375 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday’s comeback win, showcasing the vintage performance we’ve been waiting for. His ability to lead an 11-play, 90-yard touchdown drive and then immediately follow with an 88-yard huge play to Tutu Atwell demonstrates his clutch playmaking, especially when the team needs it most. Through four starts, Stafford has thrown for 1,114 yards and eight touchdowns, proving he still possesses the arm talent and leadership to deliver elite fantasy production.

Stafford now faces a home matchup against the 49ers on a short week, where his 40.22% optimal percentage highlights his strong potential to be in the winning lineup. This high optimal percentage, combined with his recent 375-yard, three-touchdown performance, makes him a foundational piece for tonight’s slate. His $10,400 salary is easily justified by his demonstrated ability to put up huge numbers, giving him a robust 1.7x value projection.

2. Kendrick Bourne ($4,600)

Kendrick Bourne has settled into the critical No. 3 wide receiver role for the 49ers, playing 68% of snaps as a reliable target in an offense that consistently produces. His $4600 salary offers immense value, projecting for a solid 9.88 DK points, which translates to a strong 2.15x value that DFS players covet. Facing the Rams, a team the 49ers often find success against, Bourne is in a prime position to exceed expectations, especially if Ricky Pearsall’s (knee) status keeps him sidelined, elevating Bourne’s target share even further.

Tonight’s game sets up well for Bourne to continue his consistent production, as he’s an integral part of the 49ers’ passing game and a key contributor to their offensive flow. His high optimal lineup percentage of 39.5% and significant ownership at 34.4% demonstrate the confidence the DFS community has in his ability to deliver. Bourne provides a high-floor, high-value option at his price point, making him an outstanding play to anchor your lineups.

Honorable Mentions

• Mac Jones ($9,200)

Bargain Bin

Demarcus Robinson ($3,600)

Demarcus Robinson ($3600) returns from suspension and immediately steps into a valuable role for the 49ers, catching one of two targets for 20 yards in his 2025 debut. With Ricky Pearsall (knee) potentially sidelined for Thursday’s game against the Rams, Robinson’s snap count and target share project to increase significantly against his former team, positioning him as a strong punt play at a minimal salary.

His $3600 salary makes him an elite value play with a 2.33x projection, and his 39.15% optimal lineup percentage highlights his ceiling in this matchup. The 49ers’ offense consistently creates scoring opportunities, and Robinson’s potential expanded role against a familiar opponent provides multiple pathways to exceed his modest projection and crush value for DFS lineups.

Honorable Mention

• Colby Parkinson ($600)

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