FREE 9/5 NFL TNF Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

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This is what we have been waiting for. Thursday nights really are that much better with NFL action. And to begin the season, we don’t even have to grit our teeth when saying that, as we have a fantastic matchup to enjoy. As the Kansas City Chiefs look to defend their Super Bowl championship, the Baltimore Ravens visit Arrowhead Stadium. Let’s not waste any time as we jump into some DFS players we are targeting, one we are fading (sorry, Taylor Swift fans), and some prop bets we have our eye on.

TNF DFS Picks

Captain

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens, $17,100 (DK)/$17,000 (FD)

I know that the Ravens brought Derrick Henry into the fold this offseason, but do we really think Lamar Jackson is going to stop running? The ball will be in his hands each play, and Baltimore doesn’t have great depth behind Henry (more on that later). Henry will likely be eased into action, so we are avoiding him tonight. It will be a tough defensive matchup on both sides of the ball. If you like Kansas City to win, playing from behind should help Jackson rack up the fantasy production. The floor that comes from his rushing production, 821 yards, and five touchdowns last year also helps.

Isaiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs, $12,600 (DK)/$12,500 (FD)

There is a lot of offensive talent on both teams here, so taking the discount in the captain spot could be a prudent strategy. The Chiefs really leaned on Isaiah Pacheco down the stretch and in the postseason last year. That is a trend I would expect to see continue behind a strong offensive line. The depth behind Pacheco doesn’t stand out either, and I plan on having him pick up a few receptions (44 for 244 last year).

Flex Plays

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens, $6,400 (DK)/$11,000 (FD)

The big thing here is that Mark Andrews is healthy. Before injuring his leg in Week 11, Andrews was in the midst of another strong season, catching 45 passes for 544 yards and six touchdowns. Even with the emergence of Zay Flowers, Andrews is still a top option for Jackson, and his price doesn’t reflect the production pace he was on prior to the injury.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs, $7,600 (DK)/$10,000 (FD)

There is a considerable amount of buzz, and rightfully so, surrounding Rice after his explosive rookie year. Rice now has a year of experience, and he will be the main downfield option for Patrick Mahomes. In season-long leagues, the threat of suspension is scaring some away from Rice, but we don’t have to worry about that in DFS. Enjoy Rice for as long as it lasts after he caught 79 passes for 938 yards and seven touchdowns.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs, $10,400 (DK)/$17,500 (FD)

We get Patrick Mahomes at a little discount compared to Jackson, and it’s the lack of a floor on the ground that’s driving the cost. It’s not an easy matchup for Mahomes against a tough Baltimore defense, but he certainly has proven himself to be a top option.

Having a roster built without a quarterback is an interesting approach, but in this matchup, it’s reasonable. After Kansas City drafted Xavier Worthy, Mahomes has multiple weapons to work with. Instead of trying to pick who will have the best game, going with their quarterback casts a wider net. But his price doesn’t fit into all roster builds.

Value Plays

Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens, $4,400 (DK)/$7,500 (FD)

While the Ravens did add Henry this off-season, can we really expect Henry to carry a full load on his own? That means Justice Hill will have a role that might be a little larger than normal in Week 1. Hill has value as a third-down back and did average 4.6 yards per carry last year.

Harrison Butker, K, Kansas City Chiefs, $4,600 (DK)/$9,000 (FD)

I apologize for putting you to sleep. All we want to do is remove kickers from season-long fantasy leagues, and I am targeting one for DFS. We do know that Butker is one of the best kickers in the league, and he is cheaper than his counterpart tonight. Anytime the Chiefs score, Butker will be a part of it. If there is any initial rust, and the Ravens do have a strong defense, Kansas City might settle for more field goals than normal as well.

Fade

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs, $9,600 (DK)/$14,000 (FD)

Once you get past the quarterbacks, Travis Kelce is at the top of the salary chart this week. It makes roster builds difficult, and we are also forced to pay a premium for Travis Kelce. There are more weapons than in the past in Kansas City, and Kelce is also another year older. He only had two games in which he broke the century mark in the regular season last year, and Kelce’s true value is dependent upon finding the end zone. Last year, Kelce only had five touchdowns, and he finished with “just” 984 yards.

TNF Prop Bets

Isiah Pacheco – Over 2.5 Receptions (-115 on DraftKings)

With Clyde Edwards-Helaire for at least the first four games, the Chiefs are thin in the backfield. They did bring Samaje Perine into the fold, but the veteran will likely need a little time before truly ramping up. That means Isiah Pacheco will be carrying a heavy load, and that carries through to the passing game. Including the postseason, Pacheco hit this number in 11 of 18 games last year with a greater competition for targets out of the backfield.

Justice Hill – Over 1.5 Receptions (-115 on DraftKings)

With just Derrick Henry ahead of him on the depth chart, Justice Hill figures to have a steady role. At least at the beginning of the season, that will certainly be the case for Hill. Henry isn’t known as a true receiving threat, and Hill now fills the third down role. Hill took on a larger role towards the end of last season, and that carried through the postseason. In his last five games and two playoff games, Hill had 17 receptions and hit the over each week.

Isiah Pacheco – Anytime Touchdown (+100 on Bet MGM)

It’s clear that we like Isiah Pacheco this week, so let’s go with it. Pacheco is clearly the main cog in Kansas City’s backfield, and he will be busy tonight. In 14 regular season games last year, Pacheco had seven rushing touchdowns while adding two more through the air. When the playoffs came, the Chiefs leaned on Pacheco more heavily, and on the road to the Super Bowl, he had a touchdown each week.