FREE 03/13 PGA Cheat Sheet: THE PLAYERS Championship DFS Plays

The 2025 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is here, bringing together one of the strongest fields in golf with 48 of the top 50 players in the world competing. Known as a ball-striker’s paradise, this Pete Dye-designed course demands precision off the tee and sharp approach play, making it a test of all-around skill rather than favoring any single strength. With Scottie Scheffler chasing an unprecedented three-peat, and softer conditions expected due to early-week rain, we could see another low-scoring edition. However, with water lurking on 14 holes and unpredictable March winds on the weekend, avoiding big numbers will be just as important as piling up birdies.

For DFS purposes, pricing is tighter than usual with no standout value plays under $7K and three highly owned players projected north of 20%. This makes roster construction particularly tricky as you’ll need to balance high-upside stars like Scheffler or Xander Schauffele with mid-range options who fit this course’s accuracy-over-power profile. Past champions have thrived in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Approach while putting has been less critical, so targeting consistent ball-strikers should be a priority. Let’s dive into our top plays for this slate.

Premium Plays ($10,000+)

Top Play: Scottie Scheffler ($12,800)

Scottie Scheffler ($12,800) comes into THE PLAYERS Championship as one of the most reliable DFS options, backed by elite ball-striking and consistent results. His 88.1% make-cut percentage reflects a high floor, while his recent T3 at The Genesis Invitational and T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational show he’s maintaining strong form despite some struggles with the putter. At TPC Sawgrass, where precision off the tee and approach play are critical, Scheffler’s ability to lead fields in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee is a significant advantage. While his salary is steep, his projected 88.9 DraftKings points and 23.0% Optimal Lineup Rate justify the price tag in both cash games and tournaments.

The 31.1% projected ownership is certainly high but warranted given his consistency and upside on a demanding course like this one. While rostering Scheffler means sacrificing elsewhere in your lineup, he offers unparalleled stability at the top end of the pricing spectrum with legitimate win equity. If you’re comfortable eating chalk in tournaments, he’s a cornerstone play. However, for those looking to differentiate in GPPs, pivoting to similarly priced options with lower ownership could provide leverage without sacrificing too much upside.

Other Premium Options

• Ludvig Aberg ($10,200, MakeCut: 75.4%, Own: 20.1%)
• Collin Morikawa ($10,500, MakeCut: 79.7%, Own: 23.2%)

Mid-Range Plays ($8,000-$9,999)

Top Play: Russell Henley ($9,500)

Russell Henley ($9,500) enters THE PLAYERS Championship in excellent form following his recent win at Bay Hill, where his short game carried him to victory. Gaining nearly 10 strokes around the green and with the putter last week, Henley’s performance showcased his ability to grind out results under pressure—a skill that could prove invaluable at TPC Sawgrass, where precision and scrambling often separate contenders from the field. While his make-cut percentage (69.2%) isn’t elite for this salary range, Henley’s current momentum and well-rounded game make him an intriguing option for both cash games and tournaments.

At 15.5% projected ownership, Henley will be one of the chalkier plays this week, but it’s likely warranted given his recent form and optimal lineup rate (18.5%). His salary feels slightly elevated compared to others in this range, but the combination of high upside and steady performance makes him a viable choice despite the popularity. If you’re building around Henley in DFS lineups, his consistency and win equity justify eating some chalk in larger fields—just be mindful of balancing your roster with lower-owned pivots elsewhere.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Tommy Fleetwood ($9,800, MakeCut: 72.2%, Own: 15.8%)
• Sepp Straka ($8,600, MakeCut: 65.6%, Own: 18.9%)
• Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900, MakeCut: 71.3%, Own: 16.8%)

Value Plays ($7,000-$7,999)

First Value Play: Aaron Rai ($7,100)

Aaron Rai ($7,100) presents an intriguing value option at THE PLAYERS Championship, especially for those looking to balance their lineups with a lower-priced golfer. His ball-striking remains his calling card, highlighted by a recent T4 finish at the Mexico Open, where he gained over nine strokes on approach and led the field in greens in regulation. While his 58.2% make-cut percentage isn’t overly reassuring, his iron play gives him upside on a course like TPC Sawgrass that rewards precision over power. With a projected 61.83 DraftKings points and an 8.71x value rating, Rai offers solid potential for both cash games and tournaments.

However, at 11% projected ownership—well above the field average—Rai’s popularity is worth considering. While his salary makes him an appealing fit for many lineup constructions, the elevated ownership suggests he’ll be a common piece in builds this week. If you believe in his ability to replicate his strong approach play from Mexico, the chalk could be justified given his price and upside. That said, if you’re looking for differentiation in tournaments, it might be worth pivoting to similarly priced options with lower rostership and comparable profiles.

Second Value Play: Denny McCarthy ($7,700)

Denny McCarthy ($7,700) is an intriguing mid-range option for THE PLAYERS Championship, particularly given his strong course history at TPC Sawgrass. He’s a perfect 5-for-5 in cuts made at this event, which pairs well with his recent form, including an 18th-place finish at Bay Hill where he gained a season-high 7.1 strokes putting and added 2.43 strokes on approach. While his make-cut percentage this season sits at a modest 57.7%, McCarthy hasn’t missed a cut all year and has climbed to 26th in the FedExCup standings. His elite putting (second in SG: Putting last week) could be a significant advantage on Sawgrass’ tricky greens, making him a solid play in both cash and GPP formats.

At just over 7% projected ownership, McCarthy offers moderate differentiation without being overly chalky. His $7,700 salary provides solid value (7.97x) relative to his projection of 61.4 DraftKings points, and while his tournament rank (56th) suggests limited upside compared to higher-priced players, his consistency and ability to handle tough setups make him appealing here. With balanced ownership and proven success on this course, McCarthy fits as a steady option for those looking to round out lineups without sacrificing cut equity or upside potential.

Other Value Options

• Corey Conners ($7,900, MakeCut: 60.3%, Own: 10.9%)
• Keegan Bradley ($7,700, MakeCut: 61.0%, Own: 11.1%)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!