FREE Open Championship DFS Preview

Content provided by DrRoto.com - Exclusive DFS Hero Partner

This is one of my favorite events of the year, right up there with The Masters and the U.S. Open. In America, we will be able to sip our coffees while watching players battle heavy fescue grass, gorse bushes, and (hopefully) strong winds as they navigate one of the most complete tests of golf on planet Earth. Can. Not. Wait. After last week saw Scotland’s national Open produced a homegrown champion, Royal Troon, running adjacent to the Firth of Clyde, will play host to the Open Championship. Last week at the Scottish Open, Robert Macintyre took home his home country’s national championship, holing a 20’ putt on the final hole to beat Adam Scott by a single stroke. The tournament once again produced a dramatic finish after the 2023 edition saw Rory McIlroy birdie the final hole in strong winds to best the 2024 champion by a single shot. While the Renaissance Club isn’t a true links course like Royal Troon, it still serves as a warm-up to the Open, and there is much we can learn from what we saw play out.

THE COURSE:

Royal Troon- Old Course

We will be watching action take place this week on a Par 71, measuring just under 7,400 yards. This is an iconic venue, previously hosting classics such as Watson besting Nicklaus in “The Duel in the Sun” in 1977, Palmer winning his second Open Championship in 1962, and Stenson besting Mickelson (who was 11 strokes better than 3rd place) in another duel in 2016. Stenson’s win broke a streak of six consecutive American champions, so it doesn’t necessarily favor a player who is most accustomed to links-style golf in the UK. The course features three Par 5s, small greens, undulating fairways, and many deep pot bunkers. Measuring out at 593 yards, 623 yards, and 572 yards, playing the par five holes well will be key to competing for the title. The total distance of the course tells a very small part of the story at Troon, as the course will test all aspects of a player’s game. In previous editions at the venue, short game and accuracy off the tee have been of more importance than at other Open Championship venues. This has been factored into the model this week. Distance control with approach shots will be very important as well, as there are multiple tiers on many of the greens, with trouble often just short or long of the intended target. There are also run-offs around the greens, similar to what we saw at Pinehurst #2 at the US Open. Based on what we know about who the course favors, I’ll be favoring strong ball strikers (Combination of tee shots and approach shots) who also show consistently solid short gameplay. It will ask of players to hit a lot of types of shots around the greens, so players who consistently fare well relative to the field around the greens shows the ability to adapt from week to week. Keep a close eye on the forecast, as there is often a significant wave advantage, as the average score of morning vs afternoon tee times differs greatly.

Stat categories & other key factors:

SG: Ball striking

SG: Approach

SG: Off the tee

SG: Around the green

Approach play 150-225

Putting on slow greens

Open Championship history

CORE PLAYERS $10,000+

Rory McIlroy $11,400:

He doesn’t have the wins to show for it, but Rory has been playing the best golf of his illustrious career. With Scheffler priced up at $12,800, the salary relief allows for a more balanced lineup. The performance in his runner-up finish at Pinehurst displayed that his skills have been refined and that he’s able to use them in the biggest moments. Troon should play right into his hands. The ability to fly the ball lower, work the ball in both directions and improve wedge play are a few factors that have me most bullish on his chances of contending. We know his stats are elite level, but the intangible factors could come into play as Rory seeks to break a decade-long major-less streak. This very well could be the week he gets back in the winner’s circle. If he does, it could begin a new chapter of his career where he wins at least a major title each year. Turning point? We’ll see, but the narrative around his legacy will change if he’s able to hoist the Claret Jug.

CORE PLAYERS $7,000-$9,900:

Tyrell Hatton $9,500:

While it has been a successful first season on the LIV tour, Hatton’s play in majors is what has me more positive about his chances at the season’s final major. His career has shown that he’s elite tee-to-green, but play in majors hadn’t been great. The 2019 Open Championship (T-6) was his only top-10 before this year’s Masters. Those who have watched him play know he wears his emotions on his sleeve, and at times, a quick temper seemed to adversely impact his play. The Masters was a big step, as conditions were very difficult and required patience. The US Open saw him fire a final round 77 in a T-26 finish, but before that, he played very well at a difficult course. It seems he has turned a corner mentally, and a 3rd place finish in the LIV event at Valderrama last week was preceded by a victory in his previous start in Nashville. Additionally, DFSHero.com has him with an 89.71% chance to make the cut. The form is there, and his game fits Troon well. I’m locking him in.

Tony Finau $8,700:

Tony can putt! At least, it seems that way based on his previous three performances on the greens. These events have seen Big Ton’ gain over two strokes on the greens in each event, notably gaining over three at the Travelers Championship. This is especially notable for Finau, as he is one of the best ball strikers in the world. These putting performances were paired with solid approach play, leading to T-8, T-3, and T-5 finishes, respectively. He also boasts an impressive Open Championship resumé, with top-30 finishes in his first six appearances before a missed cut last year. There was a 3rd place finish and a T-9 finish included amongst those finishes, and word is Finau has been in Scotland for a couple of weeks reacquainting himself with links golf. The Open experience is something he can draw upon, and with his recent play, I’m feeling great about his chances.

Shane Lowry $8,200:

The big Irishman is enjoying a nice season in ’24, notably finishing in the top 20 in the previous two majors. The putting was the one thing letting him down, but that aspect of his game has looked good in his previous two events. Troon has shown in the past a contender will need to be playing from the short grass on approach shots. Lowry gaining strokes off the tee in 10 consecutive events gives me confidence that he’ll be doing just that. The accuracy off the tee will showcase his iron play that allows him to curve the ball flight in either direction, helping to negate the strong winds. With a very good links & Open Championship record, Lowry has shown creativity both on approach shots using slopes to his benefit and around the greens when attempting to save par. Experience is important at this event, and he has it in droves.

Aaron Rai $7,300:

This is an egregiously low price for Rai, as he has been playing some of the most consistent golf of anyone in the world. This has especially been the case from tee to green, with his approach play helping carry him to five consecutive top-20 finishes. While not long off the tee, he is very accurate, and many of the long hitters will be clubbing down to avoid bunkers and creeks. This will lead to many players striking approach shots from similar distances, which should play right into the hands of the two glove-wearing Englishmen. His putting has over 1.5 strokes on the field over his previous two rounds. He also cut his teeth on the DP World tour, winning twice, including once in Scotland. Rating out with a solid floor outcome and an over 80% chance to make the cut via DFShero.com, I’m feeling very comfy when clicking his name. When form this good sustains for as long as it has, you don’t let projected ownership % get in the way of clicking a borderline “free square” into your lineups. Don’t overthink this one. He’s a value too good to pass on.

CORE PLAYERS $5,000-$7,000:

Adam Scott $6,700:

Scott has a very good Open Championship track record and just finished a shot outside of a playoff last week right here in Scotland. There were some signs heading into last week, and I was personally high on him as he loves golf in this area. His putting has been better this season, and the flatter greens should help level the playing field a bit. With windy conditions being all but inevitable, the ability to control both the trajectory and curvature of your golf ball will be important. The recently turned 44-year-old is one of the best in the world at these things and is running out of time to contend in majors. He’s a great combination of distance and accuracy with the driver, just last week gaining over a stroke per round off the tee alone. That made 7/8 events gaining on the field from the tee boxes. The betting odds have Scott at 60-1, with only 21 players at shorter odds. There are 35 players priced higher, making him a solid value play. It feels like his game is trending, and with pricing being released before his 2nd place finish went final, he’s too good a value to pass on.

Viktor Perez $6,200:

Posting three top-12 finishes in his previous five starts, including a 3rd at the Canadian Open, Perez seems primed for a strong finish at the season’s final major. At the first two of those finishes, he didn’t fare particularly well off the tee, relying heavily on strong approach play and putting. In the last two events, he’s gained almost three strokes per tournament on average against the field. If the approach play returns to the level it was and the tee shots stay in the fairway, he has a real shot at competing for a top-10. Gaining over six strokes on the field on the greens at the Renaissance Club shows he can keep the putter hot on slower greens. While there isn’t a long history of Open experience, he does have consecutive made cuts, finishing T-41 & T-34, respectively. The tall Frenchman could be the value play your lineups need this week. Click away

Mateo Manassero $5,400:

While it isn’t the level of competition the PGA Tour plays against weekly, Manassero has had a resurgent season on the DP World Tour. A win earlier in the season and three top-15 finishes in his last four starts show that the Italian could be ready to play well again at the Open Championship. Amazingly, the 31-year-old finished T-13 in this event in 2009. If you’re doing the math as I did, he was 16 when accomplishing that amazing feat. Now finally finding his game again after a long down period, it could be an inspiring story continuing at Troon. The approach play has been stellar. Last week was the best field against which he’s competed this season. He went out and gained almost two strokes per round with his approach play, propelling him to a T-15 finish. When he’s played well the irons have been what’s carried him. The tee solid as well, so that previously mentioned approach game should be able to lead him to plenty of birdies. Lock in M&M as a great value play.

Let’s have a banger of a week in Scotland!