FREE 05/17 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

This week’s UFC DFS slate features 24 fighters with an average salary near $8,100, presenting a balanced pool for roster construction. Eight fighters are drawing heavy ownership above 30%, creating clear chalk targets but also opening the door for differentiation through seven strong value plays priced for 8x or better upside. Key matchups like Michael Morales vs. Gilbert Burns offer intriguing contrasts in scoring potential—Morales’ youth and power make him a high-ceiling option despite the steep price, while Burns’ recent struggles limit his upside. Meanwhile, contests such as Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig and Nursultan Ruziboev vs. Dustin Stoltzfus present salary disparities worth exploiting for leverage.

From a strategic standpoint, expect ownership to cluster around proven veterans like Craig and Yusuff, though both face significant risks given recent form and stylistic challenges. Morales stands out as a premium pivot with clear path to finishing upside against an aging Burns, while under-the-radar candidates like Bellato could provide contrarian value if they capitalize on pricing inefficiencies. The tight salaries across this card demand careful balance between chalk and low-owned sleepers to maximize scoring ceiling without sacrificing floor. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Rodolfo Bellato (-650) ($9,400)

Rodolfo Bellato’s resilience and ability to recover under pressure make him an intriguing DFS option despite a challenging recent outing. His fight against Jimmy Crute showcased his stamina and finishing upside, as he turned around a rough start to secure a majority draw by dominating the later rounds. Bellato’s balanced style allows for multiple scoring avenues—he can accumulate significant strikes while maintaining control time, which boosts his floor even if the finish doesn’t materialize. At $9,400, he offers solid value given his potential to rack up points in both striking and grappling exchanges.

Facing Paul Craig, who has shown vulnerabilities when pressured consistently, Bellato’s pace and durability stand out as key assets. His moderate ownership near 43% suggests he is well-entrenched in lineups but not overly chalky, providing leverage if he outperforms expectations. The -650 odds reflect the betting market’s confidence in him to control the fight tempo and avoid early trouble again. For DFS players targeting a reliable light heavyweight with upside from late-fight dominance, Bellato is a strong play worth considering this week.

Other Premium Options

• Denise Gomes ($9,500, Own: 22.7%, Odds: -450)
• Yadier del Valle ($9,200, Own: 30.1%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Matheus Camilo (-140) ($8,600)

Matheus Camilo’s six-fight win streak and youth make him an intriguing DFS option in his UFC debut, especially at $8,600. He brings a balanced skill set with solid striking and takedown ability that can generate points across multiple categories. His tendency to control opponents on the ground combined with steady striking output offers a reliable floor, while his aggressive style opens doors for finishes. Facing Gabriel Green, who has all submission wins but less experience overall, Camilo’s wrestling edge could be decisive in controlling the pace and racking up control time.

While ownership is moderate and close to field average, Camilo’s value lies in his potential to outperform expectations as an under-the-radar newcomer. The matchup favors a fighter comfortable mixing pressure with grappling, allowing him to accumulate points through control and damage rather than solely relying on a finish. At this price point and tournament rank, he provides a strong path for both floor consistency and upside in a slate lacking dominant lightweight favorites.

Top Play 2: Melquizael Costa (-185) ($8,700)

Melquizael Costa’s recent three-fight winning streak showcases his well-rounded skill set and scoring versatility, making him a strong DFS consideration at $8,700. His ability to mix submission finishes with volume striking gives him multiple scoring avenues, while his edge in total strikes landed against Christian Rodriguez highlights his activity level. Although he conceded significant control time and takedowns in that fight, Costa’s resilience and grappling threat keep the pressure on opponents throughout all rounds.

With moderate ownership near 33.5%, Costa offers solid value given his consistent output and matchup dynamics. Facing Julian Erosa, another fighter on a win streak but with less grappling pedigree, Costa’s ability to blend striking volume with ground control can tilt the fight in his favor and boost DFS floor through control time points. At this salary tier, he’s a reliable option who balances risk and reward well for tournament lineups seeking both finishing upside and steady point accumulation.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Jared Gordon ($8,200, Own: 35.5%, Odds: +140)
• Luana Santos ($8,400, Own: 22.8%, Odds: +130)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Sodiq Yusuff (+105) ($7,900)

Sodiq Yusuff’s striking volume and athleticism remain his primary DFS assets, offering a solid floor through consistent output even if finishing upside is limited. Despite recent setbacks, he tends to engage actively on the feet, which can rack up significant significant strike points when he controls distance. His matchup against Mairon Santos presents an opportunity to rebound against a less proven opponent, making Yusuff’s pace and pressure worthwhile in tournaments where volatility can pay off.

However, caution is warranted given Yusuff’s recent form and vulnerability under pressure—he has struggled against higher-tier competition and was finished quickly in his last outing. His price tag reflects that risk but also keeps him accessible for lineups needing salary relief with moderate projected ownership near the field average. In formats favoring balanced floors with some finishing potential, Yusuff offers a reasonable mix of scoring paths without commanding chalk-level attention.

Other Value Options

• Dustin Stoltzfus ($7,200, Own: 21.2%, Odds: +180)
• Tainara Lisboa ($7,800, Own: 20.8%, Odds: -160)

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