Waldo Cortes Acosta (DK $8,700) and Johnny Walker (DK $7,500) close the card in the main event, the only five-round fight of the night. Cortes Acosta is a 67% favorite, and Walker sits at 33%. The card runs 14 fights and locks Saturday, November 7 at 5:00 PM ET, with six fighters under a $50,000 cap. Lines and projected ownership can move before lock.
Four fights carry a clear favorite: Seokhyeon Ko (DK $9,700) at 84%, Austin Bashi (DK $9,600) at 82%, Nina Milosevic (DK $9,500) at 80% and Keiichiro Nakamura (DK $9,400) at 76%. The chalk sits in that top price tier. Bashi is the most-owned fighter on the card at 44.9%, and Milosevic is second in ownership with the top Hero Projection at 93.0.
Top Plays
Nina Milosevic (DK $9,500)
Knockout power drives the case for Milosevic, an 80% favorite over Priscila Cachoeira (DK $6,700). Her UFC record since 2023 is 1-0, and that win came by KO/TKO. She knocked down and stopped Hailey Cowan on August 1 for 108.4 DK points, her average over her last one fight.
A stoppage win is built into her ceiling of 173.4, the top ceiling on the card. Her 93.0 Hero Projection sits on a $9,500 salary. She is a crowd favorite with a 31.2% optimal rate.
Waldo Cortes Acosta (DK $8,700)
The main event gives Cortes Acosta five rounds against Johnny Walker (DK $7,500), two more than any other fight on the card, and he is a 67% favorite. His UFC record since 2023 is 8-4, with five of those wins by KO/TKO. His DK scores in his five newest fights top out at 115.2.
Five knockouts since 2023 give him a 151.5 ceiling at $8,700. He is a heavily played headliner. His 29.6% optimal rate is the second-highest on the card.
Karine Silva (DK $8,800)
The submission threat makes Silva the pick as a 66% favorite over Gabriella Fernandes (DK $7,400). Her UFC record since 2023 is 4-3, with two wins by submission and two by decision. She threw two submission attempts against Jasmine Jasudavicius on April 18.
Grappling sets her ceiling at 156.6. She is 28.6% owned with a matching 28.6% optimal rate.
Thomas Petersen (DK $8,400)
Decision wins built Petersen's UFC record since 2023 to 3-4, all three wins on the cards. He is a 61% favorite over Gabriel Lorenco (DK $7,800). His DK scores in his five newest fights top out at 126.5.
His opponent has no UFC fights since 2023, and the numbers ride with the favorite. Petersen carries a 143.8 ceiling at $8,400. He is a fighter the field likes, with a 28.5% optimal rate.
Murtazali Magomedov (DK $8,200)
A near coin flip against Jose Delano (DK $8,000) puts Magomedov at a 48% win chance. His UFC record since 2023 is 1-0 by submission. He took down Melsik Baghdasaryan on June 20 and tapped him for 98.2 DK points, his average over his last one fight.
That submission game carries a 132.3 ceiling at $8,200. He is a well-backed pick with a 25.1% optimal rate.
Value Plays
Jonny Parsons (DK $7,300)
Two knockdowns in his lone UFC fight since 2023 back Parsons as the live underdog against Jose Souza (DK $8,900). He has a 32% win chance. His record in that window is 1-0 by KO/TKO, a stoppage of Danny Roberts on July 22, 2023 that scored 119.0 DK points.
An underdog with that finishing path is leverage on this card. He is 15.6% owned with a 23.8% optimal rate, a leverage of 8.2. That leverage makes him the kind of play to let Build & Sim size across lineups.
Virna Jandiroba (DK $7,600)
Form is the case for Jandiroba, who holds a 36% win chance against Tatiana Suarez (DK $8,600). Her UFC record since 2023 is 5-1, with four wins by decision and one by submission. Her last-three average is 105.9 DK points.
Takedown volume drives her scoring. She landed six takedowns in a decision over Tabatha Ricci on April 4 for 104.0 DK points. She is 16.3% owned with a 19.8% optimal rate.
Ollie Schmid (DK $6,800)
The upset in the Keiichiro Nakamura (DK $9,400) fight runs through Schmid, a 24% underdog. At $6,800 he leaves room for the high-priced favorites. A win carries a 117.6 ceiling.
The field barely touches this fight's underdog side. Schmid is 10.3% owned with a 19.7% optimal rate, a leverage of 9.4.
Davey Grant (DK $7,100)
Striking volume is how Grant scores against Elijah Smith (DK $9,100). His UFC record since 2023 is 4-2. He landed 162 significant strikes in a decision over Adrian Luna Martinetti on April 25 for 95.3 DK points, beside a 51.9 last-three average.
A 27% underdog with that pace is leverage at $7,100. He is 14.1% owned with an 18.1% optimal rate.
Fights To Target
Lucas Fernando (DK $9,200)
Fernando is a 73% favorite over Billy Elekana (DK $7,000), and the two sides are alternatives: roster one, never both. His UFC record since 2023 is 1-0 by KO/TKO. He knocked out Rafael Tobias on August 15 for 92.9 DK points, his average over his last one fight. He is a popular favorite with a 20.7% optimal rate.
Billy Elekana (DK $7,000)
The other side of this fight is a 27% underdog with a 17.3% optimal rate and two submission wins among his 3-1 UFC record since 2023. He is the alternative to Lucas Fernando (DK $9,200), never a partner in the same lineup. Elekana is 9.2% owned with a leverage of 8.1.
Seokhyeon Ko (DK $9,700)
Heavy favoritism is the case for Ko, an 84% favorite over Wellington Turman (DK $6,500) with a 22.1% optimal rate. Take Ko or Turman from this fight, never both. His UFC record since 2023 is 2-1 with both wins by decision, and his last-three average is 81.4 DK points. He is a heavily rostered favorite with the third-highest Hero Projection on the card at 87.5.
Wellington Turman (DK $6,500)
Turman is the upset side of the same choice, a 16% underdog with a 16.6% optimal rate and a 105.2 ceiling. He is the alternative to Ko in a lineup, never an add beside him. Turman is 7.3% owned with a leverage of 9.3.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Nina Milosevic (DK $9,500) as its default chalk, with Mantas Kondratavicius (DK $9,300) and Keiichiro Nakamura (DK $9,400) as its other trusted favorites. The market reports that the original main event fell apart, and it treats the replacement headliner as a volatile short-notice fight. It is split on that main event and on Marcos Degli (DK $9,000) against Mitch Raposo (DK $7,200). DFS Hero has Waldo Cortes Acosta (DK $8,700) at a 29.6% optimal rate. DFS Hero agrees on Milosevic, whose 31.2% optimal rate tops the card, and pushes back on Kondratavicius, who carries a leverage of -12.6.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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