FREE 12/06 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC 323 presents an intriguing roster construction challenge with 28 fighters averaging $8,100 in salary. The card is headlined by a bantamweight title rematch between Dvalishvili and Yan, where Merab’s dominant wrestling should translate to strong DFS production despite his premium pricing. With only four fighters projected for 30%+ ownership, there’s solid leverage opportunities throughout the card, particularly in spots where the betting lines don’t align with DraftKings salaries.

The slate offers seven legitimate 8x+ value candidates, creating multiple viable lineup builds around the higher-priced options. Key matchups like Pantoja vs Van and the aging veterans in Blachowicz facing Guskov provide clear DFS angles based on fighting styles and recent form. The pricing structure allows for balanced roster construction, though you’ll need to identify the right spots to pay up versus finding value in the mid-tier range. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Merab Dvalishvili ($9,500)

Dvalishvili continues to dominate the bantamweight division through his relentless wrestling pace and cardio advantage, setting a new UFC record with 20 successful takedowns in his recent title defense against Cory Sandhagen. His ability to pressure opponents and control fight positioning has produced consistent fantasy scoring, while his improved striking creates additional scoring opportunities throughout five-round fights. The 80.4% win probability reflects his current championship form, having successfully defended his title three times already in 2025.

The betting market heavily favors a decision finish at -200 odds, which aligns perfectly with Dvalishvili’s wrestling-heavy style that generates points through takedowns, control time, and volume striking. At $9,500, his 57.8% optimal lineup percentage validates the investment despite elevated ownership, as his reliable floor and championship-level performance justify the premium pricing. Facing Petr Yan provides an ideal matchup for his wrestling-based approach, with the Georgian’s conditioning advantage becoming more pronounced in later rounds.

Other Premium Options

• Alexandre Pantoja ($9,000, Own: 37.4%)
• Mansur Abdul-Malik ($9,800, Own: 28.3%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Grant Dawson ($8,900)

Dawson continues to showcase elite wrestling control while displaying improved striking volume that creates consistent fantasy scoring opportunities. His dominant performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira demonstrated his ability to dictate fight pace through takedowns and ground control, landing six of eleven attempts while accumulating over ten minutes of control time and a massive 195-84 striking advantage. The grappling specialist has compiled an impressive 11-1-1 UFC record with his lone setback being a fluke knockout, and his wrestling-heavy approach generates reliable fantasy points through takedowns, control time, and ground strikes.

The betting market reflects strong confidence in Dawson’s chances tonight, installing him as a -258 favorite with 72.1% win probability against Manuel Torres. His submission finish odds of +140 offer the most likely non-decision outcome, aligning perfectly with his grappling-centric style that has produced consistent scoring throughout his UFC tenure. At $8,900 with moderate projected ownership of 23.5%, Dawson provides excellent tournament value as a fighter capable of controlling fights from start to finish while maintaining the grappling threat that can deliver ceiling performances through quick submissions.

Top Play 2: Iwo Baraniewski ($8,800)

Baraniewski brings explosive finishing power into his UFC debut, having secured his contract with a devastating 20-second knockout on the Contender Series that showcased his crisp striking precision. His perfect 6-0 record includes four knockouts, demonstrating consistent ability to end fights early, while his judo background provides additional grappling advantages that create multiple pathways to victory at light heavyweight. The betting market strongly favors his finishing ability with KO/TKO odds at just +110, and his -198 moneyline reflects 66.4% win probability against an opponent who remains winless in his last two outings.

The $8,800 salary provides excellent value for a fighter with such clear finishing upside, especially considering the -650 odds suggest this fight won’t reach the scorecards. His size advantage moving up from light heavyweight gives him additional power at 205 pounds, while facing Aslan creates a favorable stylistic matchup against someone struggling with current form. At 25.2% optimal lineup inclusion with moderate 26.2% ownership, Baraniewski offers strong tournament appeal with both floor and ceiling considerations working in his favor.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Maycee Barber ($8,700, Own: 12.2%)
• Chris Duncan ($8,600, Own: 25.8%)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Joshua Van ($7,200)

Van continues to showcase elite boxing fundamentals while maintaining an aggressive pace that consistently generates fantasy scoring opportunities. His recent unanimous decision victory over top-ranked Brandon Royval demonstrated his ability to absorb volume while landing the cleaner, more impactful strikes throughout three rounds. The 24-year-old has compiled an impressive 8-1 record across nine fights since his 2023 debut, with his relentless forward pressure and durability creating reliable scoring floors even in competitive matchups.

The flyweight contender faces a title shot against Alexandre Pantoja carrying significant underdog value at +190 odds, with his 34.5% win probability offering strong tournament upside at moderate 31.5% ownership. Van’s proven ability to perform in high-volume wars translates directly to DFS production, as evidenced by his Fight of the Night performance against Royval where both fighters combined for over 400 significant strikes. At $7,200, his combination of finishing potential and decision-based scoring floor provides excellent leverage in a spot where his boxing skills and pace could trouble the champion over five rounds.

Other Value Options

• Terrance McKinney ($7,600, Own: 30.3%)
• Bogdan Guskov ($7,800, Own: 26.1%)

Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!