Alexander Volkanovski (DK $8,200) and Movsar Evloev (DK $8,000) close the card with a five-round main event at a 50% win chance each. Petr Yan (DK $8,800) and Merab Dvalishvili (DK $7,400) go five rounds right before them, with Yan at 56% and Dvalishvili at 44%. The 14-fight card locks Saturday at 10:00 AM ET, and those last two fights hold a big share of the field's money.
The clear favorites sit early and in the middle of the card. Asaf Chopurov (DK $9,500) is at 82% against Colby Thicknesse (DK $6,700), Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (DK $9,400) is at 81% against Nikita Krylov (DK $6,800), Iasmin Lucindo (DK $9,200) is at 77% against Nicolle Caliari (DK $7,000), and Azamat Murzakanov (DK $9,000) is at 64% against Dominick Reyes (DK $7,200). Merab Dvalishvili (DK $7,400) is the most-owned fighter on the card at 49.2%. Petr Yan (DK $8,800) sits at 39.9%, Movsar Evloev (DK $8,000) at 38.5% and Asaf Chopurov (DK $9,500) at 30.7%. Yakhyaev and Alexander Volkanovski (DK $8,200) draw heavy ownership as well.
Top Plays
Merab Dvalishvili (DK $7,400)
Dvalishvili gets five rounds against Petr Yan (DK $8,800), and his wrestling pace scores in all of them. He is 6-1 in the UFC since 2023 with five wins by decision, and his last-three average is 143.4. He goes in with a 44% win chance.
The simulations and the field meet on him. He is 49.2% owned with a 55.7% optimal rate, the top optimal rate on the card, and carries a leverage of 6.5. His value is 11.98.
Alexander Volkanovski (DK $8,200)
Volkanovski headlines the card against Movsar Evloev (DK $8,000) in a five-round main event, and the 50% win chance makes it a pick'em. He is 3-3 in the UFC since 2023 with a knockout among his wins. He landed 158 significant strikes against Diego Lopes on April 12, 2025, then 98 in the January 31 rematch with Lopes.
Five rounds of volume carry his price. He brings an 80.0 Hero Projection and a 168.3 ceiling, and his 41.7% optimal rate ranks second on the card. He is a crowd favorite with a 9.76 value.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (DK $9,400)
Yakhyaev finishes fights, and he takes an 81% win chance against Nikita Krylov (DK $6,800). He is 3-0 in the UFC since 2023 with every win a stoppage. He knocked out Julius Walker with a knockdown on June 27 for 127.5, and his last-three average is 123.7.
The floor is the reason to pay up. Yakhyaev carries a 74.5 floor and a 34.9% optimal rate, and the field leans on him heavily. His 89.9 Hero Projection ranks first on the card, close with Merab Dvalishvili (DK $7,400) at 88.7.
Bolaji Oki (DK $7,600)
Oki is a coin flip against Daniel Santos (DK $8,600) with a 50% win chance, and he is the cheaper side of the fight. He scored a knockdown against Mason Jones on September 6, 2025, then landed 84 significant strikes against Manoel Sousa on March 14. Both of his UFC wins since 2023 came on the cards.
The simulations rate him above the field. He is 24.6% owned with a 28.6% optimal rate and a leverage of 4.0. His value is 8.02.
Aaron Pico (DK $8,300)
Pico is the favorite with a 57% win chance against Losene Keita (DK $7,900), and his wrestling drives his scoring. He took Patricio Pitbull down six times on April 11 for 107.0, and his last-two average is 62.9.
Takedowns win him rounds on the cards. He is 1-1 in the UFC since 2023, and his win came by decision. He is a popular play, with an 8.28 value and a 27.2% optimal rate.
Value Plays
Jacob Malkoun (DK $7,300)
Malkoun takes a 41% win chance against Abubakar Vagaev (DK $8,900), and he scores on the mat. He is 3-1 in the UFC since 2023, and he took Gerald Meerschaert down three times on May 2. His last-three average is 86.5.
The field rosters him widely as a cheap underdog. He brings a 24.1% optimal rate and a 7.50 value. His ceiling is 127.6.
Cam Rowston (DK $7,800)
Rowston is unbeaten in the UFC since 2023 at 3-0 with two knockouts, and he takes a 47% win chance against Abus Magomedov (DK $8,400). His last-three average is 103.8.
He won his newest fight on the mat, with three takedowns against Robert Bryczek on May 2. He is 17.1% owned with a 20.3% optimal rate. His leverage of 3.2 sits on an underdog with a knockout path, the kind of side to let Build & Sim size.
Lone'er Kavanagh (DK $7,900)
Kavanagh is the slight favorite at 51% against Ramazan Temirov (DK $8,300), and he is the cheaper side. He is 3-2 in the UFC since 2023 with all of his wins on the cards. He landed 97 significant strikes in a win over Brandon Moreno on February 28, then scored a knockdown against Brandon Royval on July 11.
The underowned side of a near-even fight is the read. He is 17.4% owned with a 19.6% optimal rate and a leverage of 2.2. His Hero Projection is 56.5.
Noah Gugnon (DK $7,500)
Gugnon gets a lightweight fight with Kody Steele (DK $8,700), and his submission game gives him a live finish at a 42% win chance. He is 1-0 in the UFC since 2023, a submission of Milos Janicic on August 1.
A finish is what the simulations pay for. He is 14.5% owned with a 17.8% optimal rate and a leverage of 3.3. His ceiling is 133.8.
Fights To Target
Azamat Murzakanov (DK $9,000)
Murzakanov goes in as the 64% favorite against Dominick Reyes (DK $7,200), with a 22.0% optimal rate. He is 4-1 in the UFC since 2023 with three knockouts. He knocked out Aleksandar Rakic on October 25, 2025, then faced Paulo Costa on April 11, and his last-three average is 77.6.
Dominick Reyes (DK $7,200)
Reyes carries knockout power at a 36% win chance and a 10.3% optimal rate, and his UFC wins since 2023 include three knockouts. He is 7.9% owned with a leverage of 2.4, which makes him the leverage side of this fight. Reyes and Azamat Murzakanov (DK $9,000) are alternatives: roster one side of this fight, never both in one lineup.
Rizvan Kuniev (DK $7,800)
Kuniev takes a 47% win chance and a 14.8% optimal rate against Alexander Volkov (DK $8,400). He knocked out Tyrell Fortune with a knockdown on July 25, and his last-three average is 59.4. He is 13.7% owned with a leverage of 1.1.
Alexander Volkov (DK $8,400)
Volkov holds a 53% win chance and an 11.8% optimal rate, and he is 5-1 in the UFC since 2023, with wins by knockout, submission and decision. He won a decision over Waldo Cortes Acosta on May 9, and he is 10.8% owned with a leverage of 1.0. Volkov and Rizvan Kuniev (DK $7,800) are alternatives: one side of this fight per lineup, never both.
Iasmin Lucindo (DK $9,200)
Lucindo carries a 77% win chance and a 16.7% optimal rate into a catchweight fight with Nicolle Caliari (DK $7,000), and she is 5-1 in the UFC since 2023. She took Angela Hill down three times on August 9, 2025, and her last-three average is 62.0.
Nicolle Caliari (DK $7,000)
Caliari missed weight, and the fight went ahead at a catchweight with her at a 23% win chance and a 10.6% optimal rate. She submitted Shauna Bannon on May 16, and her last-three average is 56.0. She is 6.2% owned with a leverage of 4.4, the third-highest leverage on the card, and that submission path is the leverage in this fight. Caliari and Iasmin Lucindo (DK $9,200) are alternatives: roster one of them, never both in one lineup.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (DK $9,400) as its default stud. It pairs him with Asaf Chopurov (DK $9,500) and treats Merab Dvalishvili (DK $7,400) and Movsar Evloev (DK $8,000) as core plays. It splits on the main event, on Petr Yan (DK $8,800) against Dvalishvili as a fight, on Aaron Pico (DK $8,300) against Losene Keita (DK $7,900), and on Lone'er Kavanagh (DK $7,900) against Ramazan Temirov (DK $8,300), and the news it keys on is Nicolle Caliari (DK $7,000) missing weight with her fight going ahead. DFS Hero agrees on Dvalishvili with a 55.7% optimal rate against the field's 49.2% ownership, and pushes back on Chopurov, whose 22.9% optimal rate sits under his 30.7% ownership. DFS Hero has Pico at a 27.2% optimal rate. DFS Hero has Kavanagh at a 19.6% optimal rate.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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