FREE 06/14 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

With 26 fighters averaging $8,062 in salary, UFC Atlanta presents a balanced slate that demands precise roster construction and strategic decision-making. Seven fighters are projected to be highly owned (30%+) suggesting some clear value spots are emerging, but seven 8x+ candidates offer paths to differentiate lineups. Consider the implications of Kamaru Usman’s return to welterweight against Joaquin Buckley; his grappling could be key for scoring, but Buckley’s power is a major threat. Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick also presents an interesting dynamic, as Maverick’s takedown game could challenge Namajunas’s defensive weaknesses.

The middle tier is particularly intriguing, as matchups like Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski and Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee offer volatile scoring potential at potentially lower ownership. Shahbazyan’s all-or-nothing style could lead to a quick finish or a DFS bust, while Chiesa’s reliance on grappling makes him a boom-or-bust play. Navigating these pricing tiers and ownership projections will be crucial for success this week. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Malcolm Wellmaker (-1300) ($9,800)

Wellmaker comes off a statement knockout victory in his UFC debut, showcasing his explosive power and finishing ability. That first-round knockout of Saaiman, mirroring his Contender Series performance, confirms his quick-strike potential. Facing Moutinho, who is still searching for his first UFC win, provides a favorable matchup for Wellmaker to leverage his striking advantage and pursue another early finish.

Wellmaker’s high ownership reflects the perceived safety of his finishing upside in this fight. While the ownership may seem high, his optimal percentage suggests he remains a key piece in winning lineups. His ability to end the fight quickly justifies the $9800 salary, as he possesses the power to deliver a high fantasy score in a short amount of time.

Other Premium Options

• Mansur Abdul-Malik ($9,600, Own: 42.1%, Odds: -750)
• Oumar Sy ($9,500, Own: 28.7%, Odds: -400)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Ricky Simon ($8,700)

Simon now faces Cameron Smotherman on short notice, presenting an exploitable matchup for his wrestling-heavy style. Smotherman is coming off a recent loss and has shown vulnerabilities against grapplers, which plays directly into Simon’s strengths. The quick turnaround for Smotherman suggests a potential cardio disadvantage, further enhancing Simon’s chances of securing takedowns and maintaining control throughout the fight.

Simon’s dominant wrestling and ability to accumulate control time translate to consistent fantasy scoring. His recent first-round finish demonstrates his finishing upside, adding to his already high floor. While highly owned, his optimal percentage aligns closely with his ownership, indicating he is a strong play in a favorable matchup at this price point.

Top Play 2: Ange Loosa (+115) ($8,400)

Loosa faces a favorable matchup where his wrestling can be a deciding factor. He has shown the ability to secure takedowns, averaging over two per fight in the UFC, and that ground control can translate to significant scoring, particularly against an opponent with a lower takedown defense rate. At $8400, his moderate ownership of around 22% is appealing for tournaments, considering his optimal percentage is a solid 35.1%.

Loosa’s physicality and strength present a challenge for his opponent. He maintains a high pace throughout his fights, leading to accumulated strikes and potential late-round dominance. That cardio and wrestling combination creates opportunities for a finish or a high-volume decision, both of which are valuable for DFS.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Raoni Barcelos ($8,500, Own: 28.6%. Odds: 190)
• Jose Ochoa ($8,600, Own: 23.0%, Odds: +155)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Kamaru Usman (-170) ($7,200)

Usman faces Buckley in a welterweight bout, presenting a favorable opportunity to get back in the win column. His extensive experience and championship pedigree provide a solid foundation, and his wrestling-heavy style matches up well against Buckley’s striking focus. Usman’s cardio and ability to control the fight’s pace should lead to consistent scoring throughout the rounds.

At this price point, Usman’s optimal percentage aligns favorably with his projected ownership, making him a strong tournament play. His grappling acumen and top control offer multiple avenues for accumulating significant control time, and a potential late finish boosts his ceiling. Usman’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place makes him a reliable DFS option with upside.

Other Value Options

• Andre Petroski ($7,400, Own: 31.1%, Odds: +205)
• Cody Durden ($7,600, Own: 24.1%, Odds: -180)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!