FREE 8/10 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2, also known as UFC Vegas 95, airs live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas For this card, I am using the tools found on DFSHero.com to identify the best plays for this slate.

In the main event, Polish heavyweight Marcin Tybura faces Moldovan Serghei Spivac in a rematch. Tybura won their first encounter by unanimous decision in February 2020. The co-main event features an all-American featherweight bout between Damon Jackson and Chepe Mariscal.

The card also includes welterweight action with Danny Barlow of the U.S. fighting Kazakhstan's Nikolay Veretennikov, bantamweight matchups with Chris Gutierrez of the U.S. against Quang Le of Vietnam, and Chelsea Chandler of the U.S. taking on Yana Santos. Additionally, Japanese fighter Toshiomi Kazama will face Cyprus's Charalampos Grigoriou at bantamweight.

Fights Expected to Finish Inside the Distance

• Charalampos Grigoriou (49% ITD)/Toshiomi Kazama (20% ITD) – 69% Fight ITD

• Serghei Spivac (39% ITD)/Marcin Tybura (22% ITD) – 61% Fight ITD

• Danny Barlow (45% ITD)/Nikolay Veretennikov (15% ITD) – 60% Fight ITD

• Karl Williams (35% ITD)/Jhonata Diniz (21% ITD) – 56% Fight ITD

• Chepe Mariscal (34% ITD)/Damon Jackson (18% ITD) – 51% Fight ITD

Other Notable ITD Lines

• Chris Gutierrez (33% ITD)

• Youssef Zalal (30% ITD)

Favorite Plays

• Chris Gutierrez 7k

• Charlampos Grigoriou 8.8k

• Serghei Spivac 8.3k

• Youseff Zalal 9.4k

• Danny Barlow 9.3k

• Karl Williams 9k

Viable Value Plays/Live Dogs

This slate features a few value plays/live dogs:

• Chris Guiterrez 7k (mispriced favorite after the fight was rescheduled with a new opponent – he will be 60+% owned)

• Damon Jackson 7.1k

• Marcin Tybura 7.9k

• Chelsea Chandler 7.8k

• Jhonata Diniz 7.2k

• Quang Le 6.7k

Analysis

This card looks like it could be heavy on favorites, with few or no underdogs winning. Last week, I thought the opposite, and we ended up with only one underdog victory. Chris Gutiérrez initially had underdog pricing before his opponent changed. He was scheduled to face Javid Basharat as a sizable underdog, but that fight was canceled. This week, Gutiérrez was rescheduled to fight Quang Le, who is debuting on short notice. As a result, Gutiérrez is now a heavy (-535) favorite. However, DraftKings doesn’t adjust pricing once it’s set, even after an opponent change.

Le, a 32-year-old Vietnamese bantamweight, has an 8-0 record with six finishes. While Le is talented, this might be too much too soon for him. One of these fighters will likely be optimal due to pricing, and as the odds suggest, it’s probably going to be Gutiérrez, who will be massive, mega chalk. This could be seen as a gift from the DFS gods—a free square.

Before this fight was rescheduled, much of the MMA community was focused on Damon Jackson, who was expected to be the mega chalk. Jackson, a decent fighter, faces Chepe Mariscal, who has never been favored in a UFC fight. Chepe is a heavy-pressure fighter who tends to win close battles due to his toughness, durability, and unbreakable spirit. While Damon has a significant size advantage and seems to have newfound confidence (possibly from his recent Turkish hair transplant), I wouldn’t be surprised if he overpowers and controls Chepe, but I’m not counting on it. Additionally, Chepe missed weight by 3 pounds and looked rough, which isn’t a great sign.

Speaking of missed weights, Chandler also missed by 6 pounds. As a weight bully, this could help her if the fight goes on, but she also looked pretty bad on the scales.

Regarding Tybura and Spivac, Tybura won their first matchup, but it was so long ago that I essentially disregard it. Tybura is well-rounded but not exceptional in any area, and the line has moved away from him since he opened as a favorite.

Lastly, while I don’t love Diniz, he’s got to be in the pool. I think Karl Williams is likely good enough to control him, but there’s a decent number of people in the MMA community who think Diniz can keep it on the feet and use his striking to piece Williams up. Diniz is a dangerous striker with big power, but his skill level is hard to gauge given the poor quality of his competition. There’s a good chance Karl can take him down and control him repeatedly.

Biggest Line Movements

• Serghei Spivac: Opened -110 to Now -150

• Youssef Zalal: -286 to -440

• Chris Gutierrez: -350 to -550

• Chelsea Chandler: +136 to +123

• Damon Jackson: +190 to +175

• Charalampos Grigoriou: -216 to -252

• Karol Rosa: -182 to -205

• Danny Barlow: -300 to -350

• Jhonata Diniz: +185 to +175

Good luck everybody! I look forward to talking strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord.