UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas on Saturday promises an action-packed lineup with a blend of experienced fighters and rising stars. The main event showcases Jared Cannonier, a seasoned middleweight, defending his position against the up-and-coming Caio Borralho. Cannonier (17-7) is looking to bounce back from a controversial early stoppage loss to Nassourdine Imavov, where he felt the referee's intervention was premature. With an opportunity to face Borralho on short notice, Cannonier aims to make a strong statement and reaffirm his status among the elite at 185 pounds.

Each fight brings its own storylines and stakes, ensuring a thrilling night of UFC action. In the APEX we tend to get more shocking upsets than most other venues. Using tools from 

, combined with Vegas data and tape study, I will outline my thoughts on the slate to aid in building your own strategy to approach this slate.

Fights Expected to Finish Inside the Distance

Zachary Reese (69% ITD )/Jose Medina (10% ITD) – 79% Fight ITD

Nathan Fletcher (46% ITD)/ Zygimantas Ramaska (33% ITD) – 79% Fight ITD

Edmen Shahbazyan (59% ITD)/Gerald Meerschaert (18% ITD) – 77% Fight ITD

Cong Wang (59% ITD)/Victoria Leonardo (6% ITD) – 65% Fight ITD

Robert Valentin (35% ITD)/Ryan Loder (24% ITD) – 59% Fight ITD

Wang Cong stands out as the top favorite on the card. Making her UFC debut after a career in kickboxing, she boasts a notable win over Valentina Shevchenko. The UFC's matchmaking seems strategic here. Cong is both powerful and fast, though she hasn't faced a relentless wrestler before. Her opponent, Victoria Leonardo, is versatile but not exceptional in any one area. Leonardo will apply pressure and push the pace. As we've seen frequently, UFC debuts can be unpredictable, and the odds may be skewed. Stewart Nicoll from the last card serves as a reminder of this scenario.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti is a tall striker with refined technique. She excels when controlling the fight's pace but can falter under pressure. Josiane Nunes, on the other hand, is all about advancing aggressively, despite her overall limitations. She will undoubtedly throw powerful strikes. This fight is likely closer to a toss-up than the odds indicate.

Viacheslav Borshchev (or Slava) is a formidable striker but has recently shown vulnerability in his chin. He was knocked down by Chase Hooper in his last fight and performed poorly. This makes James Llontop a viable contender.

Zachary Reese is a large presence for the weight class and possesses solid all-around skills with significant knockout power. Apart from his debut knockout loss, he has performed impressively. He is likely to win and win by finish, though his debut loss gives some cause for caution. I believe Reese will come through.

Dennis Buzukja now faces a new, short-notice opponent in Francis Marshall, who is a much easier challenge than his previous matchup. If the fight stays standing, Marshall has an advantage. However, Dennis is likely to secure takedowns, and Marshall has struggled from his back.

Tabatha Ricci is a skilled grappler with strong top game. Her striking is improving but still lacking. This fight is essentially a pick 'em against veteran Angela Hill. Ricci has exceptional cardio. If she can secure takedowns, she is likely to win and score well, though this is a difficult fight to predict.

Edmen Shahbazyan is an impressive striker with powerful kicks and solid takedown defense, which he will need. He struggles to get back up if taken down. Shahbazyan is most likely to knock out Gerald Meerschaert, though Meerschaert looked better than ever with his takedowns in his last fight. Meerschaert scores well in his victories.

Michael Morales is a dominant fighter who combines wrestling and Muay Thai effectively. However, he has not historically scored exceptionally well. He faces Neil Magny, a savvy veteran who is always a threat. While I won't have much exposure to Magny, I understand if you choose him as a dog.

Mairon Santos is a tall, big fighter for his weight class. He is primarily a striker with selective volume and solid takedown defense. Facing grappler Kaan Ofli, Santos is likely to remain on his feet. If he does, he offers good value and might secure a knockout.

Ryan Loder is a methodical wrestler who excels at controlling opponents from the top and is difficult to shake off. He faces Robert Valentin, a wild striker who likes to use spinning techniques and has heavy hands. Loder is likely to control the fight and neutralize Valentin’s striking.

Caio Borralho is a skilled grappler with strong takedowns and a high fight IQ. Training out of The Fighting Nerds gym, known for strategic fight plans, he did not look particularly impressive in his last fight despite knocking out Paul Craig. Borralho is favored to win, but Jared Cannonier presents a significant challenge, particularly given Cannonier’s experience and age. This matchup is a substantial step up for Borralho, making it difficult to predict the outcome.

Good luck everybody! I look forward to talking strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord.

8/24 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

This article is for subscribers

DaveVR