FREE 06/28 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC 317 features a balanced mix of high-ownership stars and strong value plays, with seven fighters projected to clear 30% ownership and six priced for 8x+ value. The main event between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira headlines a card with multiple high-stakes matchups, including a flyweight title bout between Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France. Topuria’s elite striking and Oliveira’s grappling upside create divergent scoring paths, while mid-tier options like Joshua Van and Renato Moicano offer volume and finish potential at manageable salaries.

With an average salary of $8,100, roster construction will hinge on identifying under-owned pivots in chalky spots, particularly in bouts like Van vs. Royval and Moicano vs. Dariush, where pace and durability could dictate scoring outcomes. The slate also presents clear leverage opportunities, as Talbott’s grappling questions and Pantoja’s durability concerns may create mispriced volatility. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Jacobe Smith (-1600) ($9,900)

Jacobe Smith carries explosive power and an undefeated record into his matchup with Niko Price, making him a high-upside play at $9,900. His UFC debut knockout of Preston Parsons showcased his ability to end fights early, and his wrestling pedigree at Fortis MMA ensures he can dictate where the fight takes place. Price’s aggressive style plays directly into Smith’s counter-striking and finishing ability, creating a path for another dominant performance.

Smith’s optimal lineup rate of 41.9% reflects his combination of knockout potential and scoring upside, while his moderate ownership keeps him viable in tournaments. Eight of his 10 career wins have come by KO, and his athleticism translates to consistent pressure and control. Against a durable but hittable opponent like Price, Smith’s power and pace make him the top-ranked tournament play at welterweight.

Other Premium Options

• Ilia Topuria ($9,300, Own: 47.2%, Odds: -300)
• Jhonata Diniz ($9,100, Own: 31.3%, Odds: -850)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Terrance McKinney (-200) ($8,600)

Terrance McKinney has been explosive early in fights, delivering first-round finishes in six of his ten UFC appearances. His aggressive grappling transitions and powerful striking generate rapid fantasy scoring, with his recent first-round TKO of Damir Hadzovic showcasing his ability to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes. Facing Slava Borshchev, who struggled defensively in his last outing, McKinney’s relentless pressure and submission threat create a high-ceiling scenario at a reasonable $8,600 price point.

McKinney continues to dominate as a tournament play with a 40.4% optimal lineup rate, reflecting his consistent ability to outperform his salary. His moderate ownership (37.7%) near the field average keeps him viable in large contests, while his finishing upside against a striker with defensive vulnerabilities makes him a compelling core build. The matchup favors McKinney’s early blitz, and his proven track record of fast starts aligns perfectly with DFS scoring dynamics.

Top Play 2: Gregory Rodrigues (-235) ($8,800)

Gregory Rodrigues continues to deliver high-output striking and relentless pressure, making him a consistent DFS performer with elite scoring potential. His 33.4% optimal lineup rate reflects how his aggressive style generates knockdowns, significant strikes, and frequent grappling exchanges—all key scoring categories. Against Jack Hermansson, who absorbs 4.62 strikes per minute, Rodrigues’ volume and power create a clear path to fantasy points, especially given Hermansson’s recent vulnerability to pressure fighters.

Rodrigues has been dominant in fights where he dictates pace, averaging 6.43 significant strikes landed per minute with a 55% accuracy rate. His cardio issues in the Cannonier fight were an outlier in an otherwise durable career, and Hermansson’s lower finishing threat compared to Cannonier reduces that concern. At $8,800 with moderate ownership, Rodrigues’ combination of striking volume, grappling activity, and matchup upside makes him a standout mid-tier play with tournament-winning upside.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Joshua Van ($8,000, Own: 31.1%, Odds: -260)
• Jose Delgado ($8,500, Own: 24.7%, Odds: +111)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Kai Kara-France (+210) ($7,200)

Kai Kara-France continues to showcase fight-ending power at flyweight, delivering a first-round knockout in his last outing to vault into title contention. His striking accuracy and explosive left hook make him a constant threat for early finishes, while his improved defensive movement keeps him durable in exchanges. Facing Pantoja’s grappling-heavy approach, Kara-France’s ability to keep fights standing and land fight-altering shots creates high upside in a championship matchup.

Kara-France has been efficient in maximizing scoring opportunities, earning bonuses in three of his last five wins with his aggressive striking output. His $7,200 salary presents strong value for a fighter with a proven ceiling, and his optimal lineup rate reflects consistent DFS viability. With moderate ownership in a title fight scenario, his knockout power and recent momentum make him a compelling play in all formats.

Other Value Options

• Payton Talbott ($7,500, Own: 29.3%, Odds: +105)
• Hyder Amil ($7,700, Own: 30.6%, Odds: -131)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!