FREE 11/22 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC Qatar is here and it’s a loaded slate with 28 fighters averaging $8,125 in salary. The pricing structure creates excellent roster construction flexibility, with only two fighters projected for heavy ownership above 30%. This opens up multiple lineup building approaches, whether you’re targeting the chalk or fading popular plays for contrarian leverage.

The slate offers exceptional value depth with 10 fighters showing 8x upside potential, making it easier to afford premium plays like Tsarukyan in his featured matchup against Hooker. The relatively balanced salary distribution means you won’t be forced into obvious punt plays, allowing for more strategic roster construction. With ownership likely to be spread across multiple viable options, finding the right combination of ceiling and floor becomes crucial for separating your lineups from the field. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Arman Tsarukyan ($9,500)

Tsarukyan continues to demonstrate elite-level performance across multiple facets, riding a four-fight UFC winning streak that includes his impressive split decision victory over former champion Charles Oliveira. His well-rounded skill set has consistently produced strong fantasy scoring through effective striking combinations, takedown execution, and superior cardio that allows him to maintain pace throughout three rounds. The betting market reflects his dominance with an 86.7% win probability and -650 moneyline odds, positioning him as one of the strongest favorites on the slate.

The finish odds heavily favor a KO/TKO outcome at +140, which aligns perfectly with Tsarukyan’s recent trend of more aggressive striking and his opponent’s defensive vulnerabilities. His $9,500 salary represents premium pricing, but the 38.4% optimal lineup percentage validates the investment for a fighter with this level of win probability and finishing upside. At 29 years old with a stellar 22-3 record, Tsarukyan enters this main event opportunity with the experience and skill set to deliver the dominant performance that justifies his position as the slate’s top play.

Other Premium Options

• Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev ($9,800, Own: 38.9%)
• Saygid Izagakhmaev ($9,300, Own: 18.1%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Denzel Freeman ($8,600)

Freeman brings devastating finishing power into his UFC debut with five finishes across six professional victories, establishing himself as a legitimate threat in the heavyweight division. His 6’2" frame and 77" reach provide excellent tools for creating striking opportunities, while the betting market reflects strong confidence in his ability to secure another stoppage victory at +100 odds for a KO/TKO finish. The -205 moneyline backing translates to 67.2% win probability, indicating oddsmakers view this as a favorable matchup for the newcomer’s skill set.

The $8,600 salary creates excellent value considering his optimal lineup inclusion rate of 29.1% and the heavyweight division’s consistent potential for explosive scoring through finishes. Freeman’s aggressive finishing mentality aligns perfectly with tournament strategy, as his moderate 27% projected ownership provides solid leverage opportunities while maintaining reasonable floor expectations. His late entry into the UFC at 34 demonstrates the refined skill development that often produces immediate impact performances, making him an ideal pivot from higher-priced options who may carry inflated ownership in this heavyweight showcase.

Top Play 2: Volkan Oezdemir ($8,900)

Oezdemir brings proven knockout power and experience advantages into this light heavyweight matchup, with the betting markets heavily favoring his finishing ability at +125 for a KO/TKO outcome. His 69.2% win probability reflects a fighter who has consistently competed at elite levels throughout his UFC tenure, and his ability to hang with top-tier competition like Carlos Ulberg in his last outing demonstrates the durability and striking fundamentals that make him dangerous against any opponent. The Swiss veteran’s 6’1" frame and technical boxing create multiple pathways to fantasy scoring through both volume striking and explosive finish potential.

The $8,900 salary point provides excellent leverage opportunity with moderate projected ownership sitting at 23%, while his 26.7% optimal lineup inclusion rate suggests strong underlying value that the field may underestimate. Oezdemir’s matchup against Menifield sets up favorably for his patient counter-striking style, and the -225 moneyline backing combined with heavy finish expectation creates a high-ceiling tournament play with legitimate floor protection through his proven ability to compete in competitive fights that generate consistent fantasy scoring opportunities.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Tagir Ulanbekov ($8,600, Own: 20.7%)
• Asu Almabayev ($8,700, Own: 14.2%)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Ryan Loder ($7,700)

Loder brings significant physical advantages into this middleweight clash, standing two inches taller with a two-inch reach advantage over Naurdiev. His Division I wrestling background provides a clear path to control against an opponent who has shown vulnerability to grappling-heavy game plans throughout his UFC tenure. The coaching experience at Team Alpha Male has refined his tactical approach, and facing another .500 UFC fighter creates an even playing field where his wrestling pedigree can be the deciding factor.

The betting market reflects the competitive nature of this matchup with Loder sitting at +120, indicating solid value for a fighter whose grappling skills haven’t been fully showcased in his UFC appearances. At $7,700, his 23.1% optimal lineup rate significantly exceeds his 21.1% projected ownership, creating a leverage opportunity in tournaments. His wrestling-heavy style aligns perfectly with decision-based scoring, and the physical advantages combined with his grappling foundation make him an excellent play at moderate ownership levels.

Other Value Options

• Kyoji Horiguchi ($7,600, Own: 17.8%)
• Alex Perez ($7,500, Own: 20.5%)

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