FREE 11/15 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC 322 presents a compelling DFS puzzle with 28 fighters averaging $8,064 in salary, creating a relatively tight pricing structure that demands strategic roster construction. With only five fighters projected for heavy ownership above 30%, there’s significant opportunity to gain leverage through smart pivots and contrarian plays. The slate features two title fights anchored by high-priced champions, but the real value lies in the 12 fighters showing strong 8x upside potential at more reasonable price points.

The championship bouts between Shevchenko and Weili, plus the main event welterweight title fight, will likely draw considerable chalk ownership despite their premium salaries. However, the undercard offers several intriguing spots including Wellmaker vs Ewing and the veteran clash between Daukaus and Meerschaert that could provide the scoring ceiling needed to separate lineups. With solid value options scattered throughout and multiple paths to roster construction, this slate rewards both aggressive stacking strategies and balanced approaches. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Baisangur Susurkaev ($9,800)

Susurkaev continues to showcase his devastating finishing ability across multiple disciplines, recording eight KO/TKO victories in his perfect 10-0 professional record while demonstrating elite-level adaptability under pressure. His recent performance at UFC 319 highlighted his complete skill set, as he systematically broke down Eric Nolan with heavy striking before securing a second-round rear-naked choke submission. The 24-year-old Russian’s training partnership with middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev has clearly elevated his game, and his willingness to take fights on short notice demonstrates the confidence and conditioning that separates elite prospects from the pack.

The betting market strongly validates this selection, with Susurkaev installed as a massive -1200 favorite carrying 92.3% win probability against Eric McConico. His KO/TKO finish odds sit at -280, reflecting his proven ability to end fights violently across his career, while the -750 line for the fight not going the distance suggests oddsmakers expect another dominant performance. At $9,800, his 30.9% optimal percentage combined with moderate 34.3% ownership creates an excellent leverage opportunity in tournaments, as his finishing upside and overwhelming favorite status provide both a reliable floor and massive ceiling potential for DFS success.

Other Premium Options

• Kyle Daukaus ($9,300, Own: 26.0%)
• Islam Makhachev ($9,200, Own: 38.4%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Malcolm Wellmaker ($8,400)

Wellmaker brings his perfect 10-0 record into a dream matchup against UFC debutant Ethyn Ewing, creating an ideal spot for tournament leverage. His undefeated professional run demonstrates consistent finishing ability and fight IQ that should translate seamlessly against an opponent making his promotional debut. The bantamweight veteran has shown excellent adaptability through multiple opponent changes, maintaining his preparation while his competition dealt with the pressure of stepping up to UFC-level competition.

The $8,400 salary provides strong value considering his proven track record and the significant experience gap in this matchup. Wellmaker’s 31-year-old prime combines with his veteran savvy to create multiple paths to victory against a debutant who will be dealing with octagon nerves and the step up in competition level. At 44% projected ownership, he offers the perfect balance of safety and upside for cash games while providing solid tournament appeal given his finishing potential and favorable stylistic matchup.

Top Play 2: Valentina Shevchenko ($8,200)

Shevchenko continues to showcase her championship-level striking precision while demonstrating improved defensive wrestling that neutralizes takedown threats. Her recent title defense against Manon Fiorot highlighted her ability to land the bigger offensive moments, including a crucial fourth-round knockdown that sealed the victory despite facing extended control time against the cage. The 59.7% win probability reflects her technical superiority, while her counter-striking accuracy has consistently produced strong fantasy scoring through significant strike differentials.

The betting market’s expectation for a decision finish at +120 odds plays directly into Shevchenko’s fantasy strengths, as her volume striking and defensive grappling create reliable scoring opportunities across five rounds. Her -148 moneyline position indicates solid value at the $8,200 salary, especially considering her proven ability to generate consistent points through striking accuracy and takedown defense. With moderate projected ownership at 30.2%, she offers excellent tournament leverage while maintaining a dependable floor through her technical control and championship experience.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Benoit Saint Denis ($8,800, Own: 23.7%)
• Matheus Camilo ($8,700, Own: 26.0%)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Chepe Mariscal ($7,900)

Mariscal continues his perfect UFC run with dominant control-based performances that translate directly into consistent DFS scoring. His unanimous decision victory over Ricardo Ramos showcased exactly what makes him valuable at this price point - complete striking dominance combined with effective wrestling that produced over two and a half minutes of control time. The 30-27 scorecards across the board demonstrate his ability to win every round convincingly, creating a reliable floor through volume striking and grappling transitions.

Sabatini presents an ideal stylistic matchup for Mariscal’s skill set, as the Elevation Fight Team product has shown superior striking accuracy and takedown ability against wrestlers throughout his 5-0 UFC streak. At $7,900, his 27.3% optimal rate significantly exceeds his projected 23.9% ownership, creating tournament leverage in a spot where his wrestling-heavy approach should generate consistent fantasy points. The short-notice nature of this booking favors the more well-rounded Mariscal, whose cardio and pace have proven decisive in grinding out comprehensive victories.

Other Value Options

• Michael Morales ($7,700, Own: 20.0%)
• Roman Kopylov ($7,600, Own: 20.1%)

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