FREE 11/08 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC Vegas 111 presents an interesting roster construction challenge with 24 fighters averaging $8,133 in salary — a relatively tight pricing structure that demands careful value identification. With five fighters projected for 30%+ ownership, the chalk spots are clearly defined, but seven strong candidates for 8x+ value multipliers create legitimate pivot opportunities. The headliner between Bonfim and Brown offers compelling tournament leverage, especially with Brown’s underdog status despite his consistent recent form and Bonfim’s questionable split decision over Stephen Thompson raising durability concerns.

The mid-tier pricing creates several intriguing spots where ownership could be spread thin, particularly in matchups like Simon versus Barcelos where both fighters carry significant question marks. Salikhov’s technical striking advantage over the defensively reckless Medic presents another angle worth exploring, especially given the veteran’s recent knockout form. With no truly dominant chalk plays and multiple paths to differentiation, this slate rewards sharp roster construction over simply fading the obvious spots. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Josh Hokit ($9,400)

Hokit brings devastating ground-and-pound ability into his UFC debut, having just earned his contract with a dominant wrestling performance that produced six takedowns before finishing Guilherme Uriel via second-round TKO on the Contender Series. The 27-year-old heavyweight has showcased the perfect blend of wrestling control and finishing instincts throughout his perfect 6-0 professional record, absorbing minimal damage while consistently finding ways to end fights. His background as a former NFL player translates into exceptional athleticism and physicality that creates problems for opponents once he establishes top position.

The betting market strongly favors Hokit at -425, with KO/TKO odds sitting at -135 as the most likely finish type, perfectly aligning with his ground-and-pound skill set. Facing fellow debutant Max Gimenis provides an ideal matchup for Hokit to showcase his wrestling-heavy approach against an opponent whose lone professional loss demonstrates vulnerability. At 81% win probability with strong finishing upside, his $9,400 salary offers excellent tournament value at moderate 34.8% ownership, creating the perfect combination of safety and ceiling for DFS lineups.

Other Premium Options

• Zach Reese ($9,100, Own: 37.4%)
• Joseph Morales ($9,300, Own: 30.9%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Gabriel Bonfim ($8,600)

Bonfim continues to find ways to win through his grappling control and submission threat, maintaining an impressive 18-1 record while establishing himself as a legitimate welterweight contender. His recent split decision victory over Stephen Thompson showcased his wrestling advantage, securing five takedowns and demonstrating the ground control that has made him successful throughout his UFC run. The Brazilian’s ability to dictate where fights take place gives him multiple paths to victory, and his submission skills create consistent scoring opportunities even when striking exchanges remain competitive.

The betting market reflects strong confidence in Bonfim’s chances tonight, with his -175 moneyline translating to 63.6% win probability while submission odds of +165 highlight his most dangerous weapon. At $8,600, he offers solid tournament value despite elevated ownership, as his grappling-heavy style provides a reliable scoring floor through takedowns and control time. Randy Brown’s experience presents a step up in competition, but Bonfim’s wrestling pressure and finishing ability create the type of performance ceiling that justifies his position as a core play in optimal lineups.

Top Play 2: Hyder Amil ($8,200)

Amil bounces back from his first professional loss with excellent redemption value at $8,200, facing Jamall Emmers in a matchup that favors his aggressive striking style. His 11-1 record demonstrates consistent finishing ability, and the betting market reflects strong confidence with -142 odds and a 58.7% win probability. The June knockout loss to Delgado came from early recklessness, but that same aggressive approach has produced dominant victories throughout his career when properly channeled.

The finish odds heavily favor KO/TKO at +150 with the fight unlikely to reach the scorecards at -275, creating massive upside for tournament play. Amil’s power striking and forward pressure generate consistent fantasy scoring through significant strikes and potential bonus points, while his moderate 30.6% ownership provides leverage opportunities. His 37.3% optimal lineup rate at this salary demonstrates strong mathematical value, making him an excellent core play with both floor and ceiling appeal in a favorable stylistic matchup.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Marco Tulio ($8,700, Own: 24.2%)
• Denise Gomes ($8,900, Own: 18.3%)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Muslim Salikhov ($7,400)

Salikhov continues to showcase devastating finishing ability while riding a three-fight winning streak that includes two consecutive knockout victories in under a minute. His recent dismantling of heavily-favored Carlos Leal demonstrated his elite power and timing, as he became the first fighter to knock out Leal in over 30 professional fights. The 41-year-old veteran has earned back-to-back Performance of the Night bonuses, proving his experience translates into explosive moments that generate maximum fantasy scoring.

The betting market projects KO/TKO as the most likely finish type at +180 odds, while the fight carries -650 odds to not go the distance, creating an ideal setup for tournament scoring. At 43.5% win probability as an underdog, Salikhov offers significant leverage at moderate ownership levels around 28%. His grappling advantage over Medic provides multiple pathways to victory, while his proven knockout power gives him the ceiling needed to separate lineups in large-field contests.

Other Value Options

• Raoni Barcelos ($7,800, Own: 13.0%)
• Randy Brown ($7,600, Own: 24.9%)

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