FREE 07/19 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC 318 slate features a balanced mix of high-owned favorites and strong value plays, with seven fighters projected at 30%+ ownership and 10 candidates capable of delivering 8x value. The average salary sits at $8,100, leaving room for strategic roster construction, particularly with mid-tier options like Roman Kopylov and Dan Ige offering upside. The main event between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier—a high-paced striking battle with retirement implications—anchors the slate, while Paulo Costa’s power and Daniel Zellhuber’s rising profile add intrigue to the lineup. Expect ownership to concentrate on proven scorers, but fading chalk in favor of leverage plays could pay off.

Key matchups like Patricio Freire vs. Dan Ige and Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber present clear stylistic contrasts, with striking volume and durability likely dictating DFS success. Kopylov’s affordability and Costa’s unpredictable output create a compelling value pivot, while Zellhuber’s technical striking makes him a standout in a favorable matchup. With salaries tight and several fighters capable of outliers, targeting underowned paths to upside will be critical. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Islam Dulatov (-350) ($9,600)

Islam Dulatov enters his UFC debut with a relentless wrestling attack and a significant advantage in takedown efficiency against Adam Fugitt’s 50% defense. His Contender Series performance showcased elite control time and positional dominance, traits that translate directly to high DFS scoring through ground strikes and submission threats. Fugitt’s tendency to struggle against grapplers aligns perfectly with Dulatov’s ability to chain takedowns and maintain top pressure.

At $9600, Dulatov’s salary reflects his high floor and ceiling in a matchup where he’s a heavy favorite (-560). His optimal lineup rate (35.2%) and tournament rank (1) highlight his potential to outperform price expectations, especially with moderate ownership allowing leverage in tournaments. The rescheduled debut against an overmatched opponent amplifies his upside for a dominant, high-scoring performance.

Other Premium Options

• Ateba Gautier ($9,400, Own: 38.1%)
• Jimmy Crute ($9,000, Own: 34.3%, Odds: -300)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Max Holloway (-200) ($8,200)

Max Holloway continues to deliver elite volume striking with unmatched cardio, making him a DFS powerhouse in any high-paced matchup. His output routinely overwhelms opponents, averaging 7.12 significant strikes per minute with relentless forward pressure. The Poirier rematch at lightweight plays perfectly into his strengths, as their first fight saw Holloway land 181 strikes despite the loss. At $8,200, his combination of durability, volume, and five-round experience provides both floor and ceiling in a BMF title fight where exchanges will be frequent.

Holloway has been exceptional in rematches, adjusting his game plan effectively against opponents he’s previously faced. His improved defensive grappling and body work add layers to his scoring potential, while Poirier’s tendency to brawl in the pocket creates opportunities for Holloway’s signature combinations. With a 44.4% optimal lineup rate and proven ability to dominate fantasy scoring in wars of attrition, Holloway’s high ownership is justified as a core play in all formats.

Top Play 2: Ryan Spann (-286) ($8,700)

Ryan Spann has been a consistent finisher at light heavyweight with 12 of his 21 wins coming by submission or knockout. His 6-foot-5 frame and reach advantage create opportunities to control the fight, whether striking at range or closing the distance for takedowns. Against Lukasz Brzeski, he faces an opponent with limited UFC experience and a tendency to struggle against aggressive grapplers, which plays directly into Spann’s strength in scrambles and submission chains.

Spann’s optimal lineup rate of 26.5% reflects his high-ceiling potential, especially in a matchup where Brzeski has shown vulnerability to ground attacks. His moderate ownership at 30% keeps him in play for tournaments, and his $8,700 salary is reasonable for a fighter with proven finishing ability. Spann’s power and grappling make him a threat to end the fight early, providing the kind of explosive scoring DFS players need in GPPs.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Roman Kopylov ($8,900, Own: 16.5%, Odds: +102)
• Dan Ige ($8,600, Own: 15.9%, Odds: +100)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Kyler Phillips (+170) ($7,700)

Kyler Phillips continues to showcase explosive athleticism and a well-rounded skill set that translates to high DFS output. His dynamic striking combinations and relentless takedown pursuit create multiple scoring avenues, with three of his last five wins coming by finish. The matchup against Oliveira favors Phillips’ ability to dictate exchanges, as Oliveira’s defensive grappling (60% takedown defense) struggles against chain-wrestlers, and Phillips averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes.

Phillips has demonstrated elite output in wins, averaging 103 DFS points in his UFC victories, with a 70% significant strike accuracy rate. Despite the Font loss, his activity remains high (6.5 strikes landed/minute), and Oliveira’s tendency to brawl plays directly into Phillips’ counter-wrestling strengths. At $7,700, he carries tournament-winning upside with a proven ceiling, and his optimal lineup rate (30%) reflects strong leverage in a winnable stylistic clash.

Other Value Options

• Marvin Vettori ($7,400, Own: 25.8%, Odds: +170)
• Paulo Costa ($7,300, Own: 27.9%, Odds: -122)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!