FREE 09/13 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Noche UFC presents an intriguing roster construction challenge with 28 fighters averaging $8,100 in salary. The pricing feels relatively tight across the board, creating some difficult decisions between proven scorers and emerging value plays. With six fighters projected for 30%+ ownership, chalk avoidance will be crucial in tournaments, while the presence of six legitimate 8x+ candidates gives us solid building blocks for cash games.

The Suarez vs Lemos matchup stands out as a potential roster anchor, with Suarez’s dominant wrestling style offering both high floor and ceiling potential despite her premium pricing. Meanwhile, fights like Puelles vs Silva and Aguilar vs Gurule present compelling pivot opportunities where ownership may be more dispersed. The key will be identifying which expensive plays are truly worth the salary commitment and where we can find reliable scoring at more reasonable price points. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Tatiana Suarez ($9,400)

Suarez faces a crucial bounce-back opportunity against Amanda Lemos after her February title fight setback, and the matchup dynamics strongly favor her wrestling-heavy approach. While the Zhang Weili loss exposed some limitations against elite competition, Lemos presents a completely different stylistic challenge with notable takedown defense vulnerabilities that should allow Suarez to implement her ground control game plan more effectively. Her 15 takedown attempts against Zhang demonstrated her relentless pressure approach, and facing an opponent who has struggled with wrestling-based attacks in recent performances creates a much clearer path to fantasy scoring through control time and grappling exchanges.

The $9,400 salary reflects her proven championship-level experience and dominant skill set, while the 37.7% ownership indicates sharp money recognizing her advantages in this specific matchup. Suarez’s wrestling credentials and ground control ability remain elite despite the title fight struggles, and Lemos’ recent inconsistency (2-2 in her last four) suggests defensive gaps that can be exploited. Her tournament ranking at #1 with nearly 40% optimal lineup inclusion validates the strong fundamentals of this play, particularly given her ability to control fights when her wrestling game functions properly against more accommodating opponents.

Other Premium Options

• Dusko Todorovic ($9,300, Own: 24.3%)
• Jean Silva ($9,200, Own: 43.5%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Zachary Reese ($8,900)

Reese has bounced back impressively from his early UFC struggles, showcasing vastly improved takedown defense that transformed his recent performance against Todorovic. After allowing three early takedowns in the opening frame, he stuffed 8-of-9 attempts over the final ten minutes, demonstrating the defensive wrestling improvements that allow him to utilize his 6-foot-4 frame and striking advantages. His ability to remain upright and control the striking exchanges has become a reliable formula for fantasy production, particularly against opponents who rely heavily on grappling to find success.

The matchup against Dumas presents an excellent opportunity for Reese to build momentum, facing an opponent who hasn’t secured a victory in 2025 and will likely struggle to implement a wrestling-heavy gameplan. Reese’s length and improved defensive positioning create natural advantages in the striking exchanges, while his recent form suggests he’s found his rhythm at the UFC level. At $8,900, his combination of physical tools and matchup dynamics provides strong tournament value despite the elevated ownership, particularly given his proven ability to adapt and control fights when he keeps them standing.

Top Play 2: Daniil Donchenko ($8,800)

Donchenko enters the TUF Welterweight Finale as a significant (-240) betting favorite, reflecting his dominant path through the tournament and superior skill set. His wrestling-heavy approach has consistently controlled fights throughout the season, generating reliable fantasy scoring through takedowns, ground control, and positional advances. The delayed fight due to injury concerns has allowed additional preparation time, and his technical grappling advantage over Sezinando creates multiple avenues for sustained scoring.

The $8,800 salary provides excellent value considering his tournament ranking at seventh overall with 28% optimal lineup inclusion. His moderate 33.4% ownership sits above field average but remains reasonable for a fighter with his finishing upside and control-heavy style. Facing an opponent who struggled with wrestling throughout TUF, Donchenko’s ground game should produce consistent fantasy points while maintaining tournament-winning ceiling through potential submission opportunities.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Luis Gurule ($8,700, Own: 26.6%)
• Claudio Puelles ($8,200, Own: 25.3%)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: David Martinez ($7,700)

Martinez continues to capitalize on short-notice opportunities, stepping in to save Noche UFC against Rob Font after his original opponent withdrew. His UFC debut showcased explosive finishing ability with a first-round TKO of Saimon Oliveria that earned Performance of the Night honors, demonstrating both power and composure under pressure. The quick turnaround actually favors his aggressive style, as he won’t have time to overthink against a ranked opponent in Font.

Font’s veteran status creates an ideal matchup for Martinez’s explosive approach, as the former title challenger has shown vulnerability to early pressure throughout his recent fights. Martinez’s $7,700 salary provides excellent leverage in tournament play, especially considering his proven ability to deliver massive scores through early finishes. The moderate ownership around 32% keeps him under the radar while his 26% optimal rate suggests strong underlying fundamentals for GPP construction.

Other Value Options

• Diego Ferreira ($7,800, Own: 31.6%)
• Quang Le ($7,900, Own: 17.5%)

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