FREE 02/02 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Today’s 5-game NBA slate offers some intriguing opportunities, with two standout matchups from a DFS perspective. The highest total on the board belongs to the late MEM at MIL game (246.5), which promises a fast pace and plenty of fantasy-friendly scoring potential. Earlier in the day, DAL at CLE (236.0) also stands out, combining a solid total with key offensive pieces in play. These two games should draw plenty of attention, but how you approach them relative to the rest of the slate could be the difference-maker.

With games spread out from 03:00 PM ET to 08:30 PM ET, there’s room to get creative with roster construction and take advantage of potential pivots as news develops. The smaller slate size means ownership will naturally condense around popular spots, so finding ways to differentiate without sacrificing upside is key.

Game Environment Analysis

CHI @ DET (O/U: 233.5, Spread: -6.0)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs DET (14th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (15th) vs DET (20th)
• Def Eff: CHI (23rd) vs DET (13th)

DAL @ CLE (O/U: 236.0, Spread: -13.0)

• Pace: DAL (13th) vs CLE (6th)
• Off Eff: DAL (7th) vs CLE (1st) 🔥
• Def Eff: DAL (12th) vs CLE (8th)

LAC @ TOR (O/U: 219.0, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: LAC (20th) vs TOR (9th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: LAC (21st) vs TOR (24th)
• Def Eff: LAC (2nd) vs TOR (25th) 🎯

BOS @ PHI (O/U: 224.5, Spread: 11.0)

• Pace: BOS (24th) vs PHI (28th)
• Off Eff: BOS (4th) 🔥 vs PHI (19th)
• Def Eff: BOS (5th) vs PHI (22nd)

MEM @ MIL (O/U: 246.5, Spread: -3.0)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs MIL (11th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MEM (5th) vs MIL (11th)
• Def Eff: MEM (7th) vs MIL (9th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Damian Lillard ($8,800)

Damian Lillard ($8,800) is in a strong spot tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies, and his combination of high usage and consistent minutes makes him a top option on this slate. Projected for 37 minutes and 49.6 DK points (1.34 FPPM), he offers excellent value at 5.6x his salary. While Memphis has been solid defensively, they’ve struggled to contain high-scoring guards, and with Lillard’s ability to rack up points in multiple ways—scoring, assists, and occasional rebounds—he’s well-positioned to take advantage of this matchup. Additionally, with a Boom% of 34.7% and appearing in 24.2% of optimal lineups, he’s not just safe but carries significant upside for tournaments.

The one concern here is ownership—Lillard is projected to be rostered by nearly 30% of the field, which makes him chalky compared to the average player on the slate. However, given his proven ceiling (recently posting back-to-back games over 60 DK points) and the likelihood that Milwaukee leans heavily on him in what should be a competitive game environment against Memphis, this chalk feels justified. If you’re looking for stability with upside in your lineups tonight, Lillard fits the bill even at higher ownership levels.

More PG Plays:

• Cade Cunningham ($10,200)
• James Harden ($9,100)
• Tyrese Maxey ($10,000)

SG - Luke Kennard ($4,500)

Luke Kennard is shaping up as one of the better value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,500. He’s projected for 31 minutes against a Milwaukee team that ranks middle of the pack in defending guards, and with Ja Morant still sidelined, Kennard’s role in the Memphis offense remains solidified. Over his last five games, he’s hit 20+ DraftKings points four times, including two ceiling performances of 39.5 and 44.8 DK points where his sharpshooting from deep was on full display. With a projection of 26.8 DK points (5.96x value) and a Boom% over 26%, Kennard has plenty of upside to justify his price tag.

The main concern here is ownership—Kennard is expected to be rostered by nearly 28% of the field, which makes him one of the chalkier value options tonight. However, this chalk looks warranted given his recent production and strong optimal lineup rate (21.8%). The Grizzlies will need his scoring punch against Milwaukee’s fast-paced offense led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, creating a favorable game environment for fantasy purposes. At this salary and with his current form, it’s hard to argue against locking Kennard into your builds despite the popularity—he provides both stability and upside at an affordable cost.

More SG Plays:

• Desmond Bane ($7,700)
• Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,400)
• Coby White ($6,100)

SF - Kawhi Leonard ($6,700)

Kawhi Leonard is shaping up as one of the best value plays on the slate at $6,700. His 1.3 FPPM production combined with a projected 28 minutes gives him a solid floor, and his recent performances show he’s finding his rhythm after returning from injury. Over his last five games, Kawhi has averaged 19.6 points, 6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in just under 27 minutes per contest. The matchup against Toronto isn’t ideal pace-wise, but Leonard’s ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him less dependent on game flow. With a projection of 36.4 DK points (5.4x value) and a Boom% of 25%, he’s well-positioned to deliver in both cash games and tournaments.

At 21.6% projected ownership, Kawhi will be popular, but for good reason—he appears in over 23% of optimal lineups and ranks as the top GPP play at his position. While chalk can sometimes be worth fading, this doesn’t feel like one of those spots given how underpriced he is relative to his upside. If anything, his ownership may actually stabilize your lineup construction in what could otherwise be a volatile slate. At this salary, you’re getting elite efficiency without needing him to log heavy minutes or dominate usage—a clear win for DFS players tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,600)
• Khris Middleton ($5,200)
• Jaylen Wells ($4,200)

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is firmly in play tonight at $11,700, and while the high ownership (32.2%) might give some pause in tournaments, the numbers back up why he’s such a popular option. His elite 1.78 FPPM combined with a projected 36 minutes puts him in line for over 64 DraftKings points, making him one of the strongest values among high-priced players with a 5.5x value projection. Memphis has been solid defensively overall but is vulnerable inside without Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, which should allow Giannis to dominate in the paint. With a Boom% of 35.7% and appearing in nearly 26% of optimal lineups, he’s one of the safest ceilings on this slate.

The key decision here is whether you want to eat the chalk or pivot elsewhere in tournaments. Giannis’ floor/ceiling combination makes him tough to fade entirely, especially given his recent production—three straight games over 60 DK points and a monster 72.5-point outing just days ago. However, with such high ownership, you’ll need strong differentiation elsewhere if you roster him in GPPs. Ultimately, he’s priced appropriately for his consistent dominance and matchup upside tonight against Memphis’ depleted frontcourt, making him an excellent option even with elevated ownership levels.

More PF Plays:

• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,100)
• Derrick Jones Jr. ($4,200)
• Santi Aldama ($4,700)

C - Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,100)

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,100) is in an interesting spot tonight against the Bucks. While Milwaukee’s frontcourt defense is anchored by Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks have struggled to limit opposing big men from racking up fantasy points, particularly those with Jackson’s versatile skill set. With a strong 1.35 FPPM rate and a projection of 44.5 DK points, he offers solid value at 5.5x his salary. His recent scoring stretch—averaging 24.2 points on 55.8% shooting over his last six games—underscores his ability to produce efficiently, even in tougher matchups like this one.

At 26.2% projected ownership, Jackson will be one of the chalkier plays on the slate, but it feels justified given his ceiling and role for Memphis. He appears in nearly a quarter (24.6%) of optimal lineups and carries a respectable boom percentage of 29.3%, making him a strong tournament option despite the heavy ownership. The key will be his ability to maintain defensive stats—blocks and steals—which are critical to hitting his ceiling in this matchup against Milwaukee’s high-paced offense. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in GPPs or locking in reliability for cash games, Jackson checks all the boxes tonight.

More C Plays:

• Ivica Zubac ($7,400)
• Jalen Duren ($6,200)
• Jakob Poeltl ($6,600)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!