FREE 02/04 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a solid 7-game NBA slate tonight, starting at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with a late-night hammer at 10:00 PM ET. Two games stand out for DFS purposes, with BOS at CLE (239.0 total) and IND at POR (233.5 total) offering the fastest paces and highest scoring environments on the slate. Those matchups should draw plenty of attention, so how you approach them—whether stacking or fading—could be key to separating yourself from the field.

Elsewhere, there are opportunities to target slower-paced games if you’re looking for lower ownership or value plays. The staggered start times also provide some late swap flexibility, which could be critical as news breaks throughout the night. With that in mind… Our February 04 Starting Five is now LIVE!

Game Environment Analysis

DAL @ PHI (O/U: 228.0, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: DAL (12th) vs PHI (28th)
• Off Eff: DAL (10th) 🔥 vs PHI (20th)
• Def Eff: DAL (12th) vs PHI (22nd)

BOS @ CLE (O/U: 239.0, Spread: -1.0)

• Pace: BOS (25th) vs CLE (6th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BOS (4th) vs CLE (1st)
• Def Eff: BOS (5th) vs CLE (8th)

HOU @ BKN (O/U: 212.0, Spread: 9.5)

• Pace: HOU (18th) vs BKN (29th)
• Off Eff: HOU (15th) vs BKN (27th)
• Def Eff: HOU (4th) vs BKN (24th)

NYK @ TOR (O/U: 228.0, Spread: 6.0)

• Pace: NYK (24th) vs TOR (10th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: NYK (2nd) 🔥 vs TOR (24th)
• Def Eff: NYK (15th) vs TOR (25th) 🎯

MIA @ CHI (O/U: 228.5, Spread: 3.5)

• Pace: MIA (27th) vs CHI (3rd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIA (17th) vs CHI (14th)
• Def Eff: MIA (11th) vs CHI (23rd)

LAL @ LAC (O/U: 221.0, Spread: -8.0)

• Pace: LAL (22nd) vs LAC (20th)
• Off Eff: LAL (11th) vs LAC (21st)
• Def Eff: LAL (18th) vs LAC (2nd)

IND @ POR (O/U: 233.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: IND (8th) vs POR (19th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: IND (7th) 🔥 vs POR (26th)
• Def Eff: IND (21st) vs POR (27th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Terry Rozier ($4,600)

At $4,600, Terry Rozier is projecting as one of the strongest value plays on the slate, offering 5.83x value and appearing in 21.5% of optimal lineups. He’s coming off a stretch of consistent performances, averaging 14.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.2 assists over his last five games while logging nearly 29 minutes per contest. His 0.89 FPPM production may not jump off the page, but his role off the bench provides him plenty of opportunities to contribute across multiple categories. Against a Bulls team that ranks middle-of-the-pack defensively against guards, Rozier has a solid path to hitting or exceeding his projection of 26.81 DK points.

The main concern here is ownership, as Rozier is expected to be rostered by nearly 29% of the field—a significant jump from the average player’s ownership rate. While chalky plays can often be risky in tournaments, Rozier’s combination of price, minutes projection (30), and recent production justifies his popularity tonight. If you’re looking for a high-floor option to round out your lineup without breaking the bank, Rozier fits the bill nicely, even if he doesn’t offer massive upside relative to other tournament pivots in this range.

More PG Plays:

• Jalen Brunson ($8,400)
• James Harden ($9,200)
• Tyler Herro ($8,400)

SG - Gradey Dick ($4,000)

Gradey Dick stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate at $4,000. With a projection of 24.08 DK points and a strong 6.02x value, he offers significant upside for his price. Dick is projected to play 30 minutes against the Knicks, and while New York isn’t a pushover defensively, they’re not an elite unit against shooting guards either. Over his last few games, Dick has shown solid consistency, putting up 20+ DK points in three of his last four outings while shooting efficiently from the field. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—albeit modestly—makes him a viable mid-range scorer who won’t hurt your lineup.

The biggest question with Dick is his ownership, which sits at 27.1%. While chalky plays can sometimes be concerning in tournaments, this might be chalk worth eating given his combination of playing time, recent form, and price tag. With a Boom% of 26.47% and appearing in 16.64% of optimal lineups, he’s well-positioned to deliver value even if he doesn’t completely smash. If you’re building around stars and need cheap exposure to a high-floor player in this range, Dick fits nicely into that role without feeling like you’re sacrificing upside.

More SG Plays:

• Jaylen Brown ($8,000)
• Norman Powell ($6,900)
• Coby White ($6,400)

SF - Jayson Tatum ($9,800)

Jayson Tatum is in an intriguing spot tonight at $9,800. He’s coming off a pair of strong performances, highlighted by his expanded playmaking role with back-to-back double-digit assist games. Against Cleveland, he’ll face a tough defensive matchup, but the projected 37 minutes and 1.35 FPPM suggest he can still deliver value. His Boom% of 24.25% and a solid 5.09x value projection reinforce his ceiling potential in tournaments, especially considering his ability to contribute across multiple categories. The Cavs are elite defensively overall but have shown vulnerability against versatile forwards like Tatum who can stretch the floor and create mismatches.

At 14.9% projected ownership, Tatum is right around field average for a slate of this size, making him neither overwhelming chalk nor a contrarian play. This ownership feels appropriate given his tournament rank (1st) and appearance in over 20% of optimal lineups—he’s priced fairly for his upside while still offering room for leverage if he hits his ceiling. If you’re building around mid-range plays or looking for a high-upside stud with moderate popularity, Tatum fits the bill perfectly tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Jaylen Brown ($8,000)
• Norman Powell ($6,900)
• Deni Avdija ($6,900)

PF - Bam Adebayo ($7,900)

Bam Adebayo ($7,900) stands out as one of the strongest plays on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. With a projection of 44.3 DK points and a solid 1.26 FPPM rate, Bam offers both floor and ceiling in a matchup against the Bulls. Chicago has struggled defensively against versatile big men, and with Adebayo projected to play 35+ minutes, he has every opportunity to take advantage. His recent performances have been nothing short of elite, including a near triple-double in his last outing (69.5 DK points), showcasing his ability to contribute across all stat categories. At a 5.6x value rating and appearing in 23% of optimal lineups, Bam is priced fairly for his upside.

The ownership is where things get interesting—Adebayo is expected to be highly rostered at 37.7%, which makes him chalky but likely justified in cash games or single-entry contests given his consistency and game environment. However, in large-field tournaments, this level of ownership may warrant considering pivots if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup. That said, with a Boom% of nearly 33%, Bam offers significant upside even at high ownership levels, especially if he flirts with another triple-double performance or racks up defensive stats like he did against San Antonio. Ultimately, Bam is a rock-solid option who fits well into most builds tonight despite the chalk factor.

More PF Plays:

• LeBron James ($10,800)
• Deni Avdija ($6,900)
• Josh Hart ($7,700)

C - Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400)

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400) is shaping up as one of the stronger plays on tonight’s slate, and the numbers back it up. Projected for 51.3 DK points at an impressive 1.43 FPPM, he offers solid value at 5.46x his salary while appearing in 16.9% of optimal lineups. The Raptors are a middle-of-the-road defensive team against bigs, and with Towns projected to play around 36 minutes, he should have ample opportunity to produce across multiple categories. His recent performances have been a bit inconsistent—ranging from 22 DK points against the Lakers to nearly 45 against Memphis—but his ceiling remains intact in this matchup.

At 23.3% projected ownership, Towns will be one of the more popular options tonight, but it’s not unwarranted given his potential output and positional flexibility at center. While chalky, he’s still worth considering in tournaments due to his strong Boom% (31.2%) and ability to deliver elite upside if he hits his projection or beyond. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in your lineup construction, Towns provides both safety and ceiling without being prohibitively expensive.

More C Plays:

• Kristaps Porzingis ($7,100)
• Jakob Poeltl ($6,400)
• Nikola Vucevic ($8,200)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!