FREE 10/21 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

The NBA is back, and we couldn’t be more excited! We’ve got an opening day with a compact two-gamer, starting starting with Houston at Oklahoma City at 7:30 PM ET and wrapping up with Golden State at the Lakers at 10:00 PM ET. Both matchups carry the high totals on the board at 227.5, which points to solid scoring environments for both games. With only these two to build around, stacking options should be straightforward, especially given the pace these teams can push.

From a DFS perspective, the high totals open up value in both games, letting you target players who thrive in up-tempo spots without spreading too thin. Houston-OKC could deliver on volume plays, while the late Lakers-Warriors game gives you flexibility for lineup tweaks. It’s a compact setup, so nailing the key correlations here will make all the difference.

Game Environment Analysis

HOU @ OKC (O/U: 227.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: HOU (18th) vs OKC (6th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: HOU (20th) vs OKC (3rd)
• Def Eff: HOU (4th) vs OKC (1st)

GSW @ LAL (O/U: 227.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: GSW (17th) vs LAL (22nd)
• Off Eff: GSW (15th) vs LAL (12th)
• Def Eff: GSW (8th) vs LAL (14th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Luka Doncic ($11,000)

Luka Doncic averages 54.8 DK points per game across the season, powering the Mavericks with 28.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 7.5 assists on 45.0% field goal shooting. His 33.18% usage rate and 24.54 PER highlight his central role, especially in high-minute outings projected at 35.5 tonight, where he delivers 1.56 fantasy points per minute. Even with a slight recent dip to 46.4 points over the last three games, his overall efficiency positions him to rebound strongly.

The matchup against the Warriors offers Luka ample opportunities, as Golden State’s perimeter defense struggles against high-usage guards who create their own shots. With a 55.5-point projection and 5.04x value at $11,000, he ranks second in tournament scoring potential and appears in 42.8% of optimal lineups. His 23.8% boom rate underscores the ceiling he reaches regularly, making him the clear top pick at point guard despite 50.3% projected ownership.

More PG Plays:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,300)
• Amen Thompson ($7,900)

SG - Austin Reaves ($7,300)

Austin Reaves delivers consistent fantasy production in the Lakers’ backcourt, posting 37.2 DK points per game this season with 19.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists on efficient 45.7% field goals and 37.2% from three. His 23.75% usage and 18.44 PER shine through in 35.2 projected minutes tonight, where he generates 1.08 fantasy points per minute. Recent trends affirm his reliability, with 32.1 points over the last three games building on 30.1 across five and 31.1 over seven.

Facing the Warriors in a game environment ripe for guard scoring, Reaves exploits their defensive lapses against multi-category contributors. At $7,300, his 5.19x value and 37.9-point projection lead the slate for shooting guards, topping tournament rankings and featuring in 43.5% of optimal builds. The 23.0% boom rate and 48.7% ownership reflect his upside without overexposure risks.

More SG Plays:

• Amen Thompson ($7,900)
• Luguentz Dort ($4,400)

SF - Aaron Wiggins ($5,000)

Aaron Wiggins operates in an expanded role for the Thunder, averaging 19.7 DK points this season with 10.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.6 assists on sharp 47.5% field goals and 38.0% threes. His 20.31% usage and 16.32 PER gain traction in 25.0 projected minutes tonight, yielding 0.90 fantasy points per minute as he complements OKC’s fast-paced attack. Steady recent output, including 12.3 points over the last three and 11.3 across seven, signals growing contributions from the wing.

The matchup versus Houston favors Wiggins, whose versatile defense and spot-up shooting target a Rockets unit vulnerable to small forward-power forward hybrids. Priced at $5,000, he provides 4.52x value with a 22.6-point projection, ranking second at his positions and hitting 29.4% of optimal lineups. Moderate 35.7% ownership pairs well with his 8.5% boom potential for differentiated tournament success.

More SF Plays:

• Jimmy Butler ($8,000)
• Alex Caruso ($4,600)

PF - Draymond Green ($5,700)

Draymond Green anchors the Warriors’ frontcourt with multifaceted play, averaging 29.0 DK points per season through 9.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on 41.6% shooting. His 15.95% usage and defensive impact via 12.61 PER thrive in 29.0 projected minutes tonight, producing 0.94 fantasy points per minute in a road setting. A minor recent dip to 21.8 points over the last three games contrasts his stronger 26.3 across five, yet his playmaking remains a constant.

Traveling to face the Lakers exposes Green’s strengths against a Lakers defense that concedes assists and rebounds to versatile bigs. At $5,700, his 4.78x value and 27.2-point projection dominate for power forwards and centers, leading tournament ranks and 35.2% of optimal lineups. The 11.7% boom rate, alongside 42.6% ownership, cements his status as the premier option at his positions.

More PF Plays:

• Jimmy Butler ($8,000)
• Jabari Smith Jr. ($5,200)

C - Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,400)

Isaiah Hartenstein trends upward for the Thunder, surging to 23.1 DK points over the last three games from a 18.3 average in five, approaching his 30.9 season mark with 10.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assists on 59.0% field goals. His 16.72% usage and 19.18 PER excel in 28.0 projected minutes tonight, delivering 1.05 fantasy points per minute as OKC’s rim protector and rebounder. This momentum builds on efficient interior scoring without reliance on threes.

Versus Houston, Hartenstein capitalizes on their weaknesses against physical centers who dominate the glass and facilitate. His $5,400 salary unlocks 5.44x value with a 29.4-point projection, topping center rankings and 39.6% of optimal lineups. High 51.5% ownership aligns with a robust 20.9% boom rate, positioning him as the top big man selection on the slate.

More C Plays:

• Deandre Ayton ($6,300)
• Jabari Smith Jr. ($5,200)

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