FREE 09/07 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’re back! Week 1 is here with a exciting 12-game slate on tap, offering plenty of avenues for roster construction. The Tampa Bay at Atlanta game stands out with its 47.0 total, played in a dome, as does Detroit at Green Bay, also at 47.0. Weather could be a factor in several contests, with notable rain chances in Cincinnati, Jacksonville, New England, and Seattle.

Beyond the dome games, keep an eye on the CIN @ CLE (48.0 total) matchup despite the 46% rain chance, and the CAR @ JAX game (46.5 total) with its 57% rain. These higher totals, even with weather concerns, could present intriguing DFS opportunities.

Top Stacks

JAX vs CAR ($17,300)

Players: Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., Tetairoa McMillan

This JAX vs CAR stack projects 52.7 points with 16.8% ownership and 12.2% optimal rate, offering 3.04 pts/$1K value. The Trevor Lawrence to Brian Thomas Jr. correlation is strong, as Thomas was Lawrence’s top target in their last preseason appearance, and expectations are high for Thomas after his 1,282-yard rookie season. Tetairoa McMillan, now the Panthers’ unquestioned No. 1 receiver following Adam Thielen’s trade, presents significant bring-back upside, especially if the Jaguars’ offense forces Carolina into a pass-heavy game script.

IND vs MIA ($16,600)

Players: Daniel Jones, Josh Downs, De’Von Achane

This Colts-Dolphins stack projects 50.3 points with 10.2% ownership and 11.3% optimal rate, offering 3.03 pts/$1K value. Daniel Jones, named the Week 1 starter and sharp in preseason, correlates directly with Josh Downs, who is off the injury report and faces a depleted Dolphins secondary. De’Von Achane, cleared for Week 1 and expected to handle the majority of touches with Jaylen Wright out, offers significant bring-back upside if the Dolphins are playing from behind, necessitating more offensive output.

ATL vs TB ($18,700)

Players: Michael Penix Jr., Drake London, Mike Evans

This ATL vs TB stack projects 52.9 points with 11.2% ownership and 10.9% optimal rate, offering 2.83 pts/$1K value. The correlation between Penix and London is strong, as London’s production surged with Penix at QB last season, with two 100-yard games in the final two weeks. However, Atlanta’s offensive line concerns, especially with the starting right tackle out, could impact Penix’s protection and London’s volume. Mike Evans offers significant bring-back upside, particularly if the Buccaneers are playing from behind and forced to throw, though his preseason absence is a slight concern.

QB Plays

Jayden Daniels ($7,000)

Jayden Daniels is a strong recommendation at $7000, projected for 24.32 DK points with excellent value at 3.47x, indicating he’s priced well below his fantasy output. His matchup against the Giants provides a high game total of 45.5 with Washington favored by 6 points, setting up a positive game script for offensive production. Even with his relatively high ownership at 14.2%, his GPP rank of 7 and optimal lineup percentage of 12.68% confirm his standing as a top-tier option with significant upside for tournaments.

Daniels continues to showcase his dual-threat capabilities, as evidenced by his recent preseason touchdown run on his lone drive, hinting at his rushing floor and red-zone potential. While preseason news indicates he’s being rested, this confirms his starter status and the team’s reliance on him for the upcoming season. This combination of strong projection, high value, and confirmed role against a favorable opponent makes Daniels an appealing play for both his secure floor and massive ceiling potential at his salary.

Honorable Mentions

• Trevor Lawrence ($5,300)
• Daniel Jones ($5,100)

RB Plays

Chase Brown ($6,600)

Chase Brown is a featured recommendation at $6600, projected for 19.16 DK points and a strong 2.9x value. Recent preseason news indicates significant usage, with Brown handling most of Cincinnati’s backfield snaps and a huge share of carries, including a goal-line touchdown. This confirmed lead-back role, coupled with a high game total of 48.0, provides a secure floor and substantial upside for touchdowns, making him an appealing option despite the 46% chance of rain.

While his projected ownership is high at 27.8%, Brown’s confirmed volume and red-zone role secure his status as a top play. His optimal lineup percentage of 18.6% further validates his strong projection, suggesting he’s a key piece for winning lineups. The blend of consistent touches, touchdown equity, and a favorable game environment makes Chase Brown a high-upside play with a solid floor at his salary.

Honorable Mentions

• De’Von Achane ($6,900)
• Christian McCaffrey ($7,300)

WR Plays

Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,800)

Brian Thomas Jr. is a premium WR play at $6800, offering a strong blend of floor and ceiling against Carolina. His projection of 18.39 DK points and 2.7x value indicate a high likelihood of exceeding salary expectations, while his 15.57% Optimal% suggests he’s a core building block for winning lineups. The recent news highlights his role as a primary target for Trevor Lawrence, especially in the red zone, setting him up for significant scoring opportunities.

Brian Thomas Jr.‘s consistent high-volume target share and red-zone presence make him an elite option this week. Despite his 19.4% ownership, his GPP Rank of 29 confirms his viability even in tournaments, as his massive upside outweighs the moderate ownership. The Jaguars’ implied team total of 25 points further boosts his scoring potential, providing ample opportunity for multiple touchdowns in a favorable matchup against the Panthers.

Honorable Mentions

• Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100)
• Puka Nacua ($7,600)

TE Plays

David Njoku ($4,700)

David Njoku is a top DFS recommendation due to his confirmed health and potential for a ceiling performance at a palatable salary. Despite recent injury concerns, Njoku has been a full participant in mandatory minicamp, which provides strong confirmation of his health and readiness for the upcoming season. While his projected ownership is 13.0%, that’s still a manageable number for a player of his caliber, especially given his $4700 salary, which offers significant cap flexibility.

Njoku’s situation, heading into a contract year and facing potential competition from a rookie, could provide a strong motivational boost, leading to increased usage and red zone targets. Although the Browns’ quarterback situation remains fluid, Njoku has historically demonstrated the ability to produce regardless of who is under center, offering a secure floor with significant upside against the Bengals. His optimal lineup percentage of 9.53% suggests he’s a frequent inclusion in winning lineups, making him a strong play in both cash games and tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Brock Bowers ($6,500)
• Trey McBride ($6,200)

DST Plays

Texans ($2,500)

Texans DST has been a strong value play, projected for 2.53x value at their $2500 salary, making them the top-ranked GPP DST. Their matchup against the Rams, who have an implied total of 20.2 points, presents a favorable opportunity for defensive production. This combination of high projected value and low salary makes them an appealing option for building lineups.

The Texans DST’s tournament appeal is further amplified by their optimal lineup percentage of 6.5% and projected ownership of 6.3%, which is near the field average. This allows for significant leverage in GPPs while still being a strong and viable play. Their ability to generate points at such a low salary provides a secure floor and allows for increased spending on high-ceiling offensive players.

Honorable Mentions

• Broncos ($3,800)
• Steelers ($3,300)

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