At UFC Las Vegas 98 on 10/12/2024, flyweights Brandon Royval and Tatsuro Taira will compete for the No. 1 contender spot, with a title shot likely at stake. Royval (16-7) is an underdog success story, having bounced back from a close loss to champion Pantoja by upsetting former titleholder Moreno on short notice. If Royval hands Taira his first loss, his path to another title shot may depend on the Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi fight on Nov. 2.

In the co-main event, middleweight prospects JunYong Park and Brad Tavares square off. Park (17-6, 7-3 UFC) is favored due to his superior grappling and striking, having won 4 of his last 5 UFC fights. Tavares, by contrast, is 1-3 in his last 4 UFC bouts..

Junior Tafa 64% Finish Line; 49% First Round Finish; 74% Implied Win Probability

Tatsuro Taira 44% Finish Line; 14% First Round Finish; 72% Win Probability

Themba Gorimbo 43% Finish Line; 21% First Round Finish; 76% Implied Win Probability

Chidi Njokuani 36% Finish Line; 20% First Round Finish; 62% Win Probability

Favorite Value Plays/Live Dog Options (8k and below)

This is going to be a hard fight to predict. You have to kind of put this one in perspective. Taira has looked very good so far in the UFC. He is well rounded, but he does not seem elite. Taira is getting better rapidly, but he hasn’t done that much yet. This will be his chance to really prove himself. Taira is facing a straight dawg in Royval. Royval has insane cardio, strong striking, and decent ground game. I’m still trying to figure out exactly what my exposures will look like here, but I will be playing both sides here. 

Again, this is going to be a closer fight than the salaries may suggest. Park can score pretty well in wins with scores over 90 DK points in 5 of his 10 fights. In a couple of his decisions he has scored 76.9 and 78.5. So, he definitely is live at his price point. I think Tavares has a legit chance of winning here, but he scores pretty bad, with his highest DK score being 81.2 DK points in a KO win in 2018. That win is the only time he has scored over 75 DK points in his 10-fight UFC career. Based on the matchup and his apparent scoring potential, I’m not sure I get to Tavares in my line ups. 

This will be an exciting fight with two good strikers throwing heavy. I like Chidi here as he has looked much better at 170 after switching to this weight class before his last fight. Jared has big power, especially early in the fight. Jared is in play for an early KO, but I think Chidi gets the win. Njokuani hasn’t historically thrown with high volume, yet that seemed somewhat improved at 170. 

Grant Dawson is wrestler that is going to do his thing here. He scores pretty well in wins, as guys with a strong ground game typically do on DK. Dawson is the highest priced fighter on the slate for good reason. In his wins, scores well with over 89 DK points in 8 of his 10 fights. Dawson scored 123 with his best score. He’s got some ceiling. Rafa Garcia is pretty good all around and never gives up on himself. He’ll fight for your money as a dog, but the wrestling will be hard to overcome.

Daniel Rodriguez 8.9k vs Alex Morono 7.3k

Both of these fighters are not very trustworthy at all. There was a time I thought Daniel Rodriguez might be pretty good, but he has looked awful recently. I feel like Morono is probably the better fighter here. But he doesn’t always follow the game plan and just does random shit sometimes, even as his corner yells for him to do the contrary. I’m just going to go with the dog here…I’m not sure I will get too much Rodriguez personally.

Temirov should be able to get this one done. He is a busy fighter with decent power. He is tough and has fought through adversity in the past. This is a debut for him, so you have to be careful. Vergara has six fights in the UFC. He has been an underdog in four of his six fights. He knocked Lacerda out as a favorite in 2023 and scored well with a 111.4. With the uncertainty of a debut fight, it might not be the worst idea to get some exposure to CJ, but I’m not prioritizing him.

One of these guys will most likely be optimal. Jonathan Pearce will come out and set a pace. He will come forward and look for the finish. As a result, Pearce has put up big scores in his wins: 134, 123.4, 95.7, 145.4, and 104.2 (in reverse order, starting with his earlier fights). His nickname of “JSP” is nothing short of embarrassing and shamefully unoriginal. Pat Sabatini is a good grappler and may get the win if he can control the fight on the ground. He’s a decent striker, too, but he can get dropped due to poor head movement. He is a tough dude. I think he has a broken arm in one fight and he was saying he was good to go. Pat also scores well in his wins with scores of 82.7, 90.4, 105.1, 106.4, and 114.6. In his two UFC losses, he got chinned early, putting up scores of 0.4 and 3.4. I’m kind of leaning Sabatini, but you got to exposure to both these dudes in 20 or 150 max. Pick your side in single entry. 

I like Themba here. I feel like he is ascending and the promotion is setting him up for another nice performance. Niko is tough and has some exciting finishes in the UFC. He surprised everyone as a dog in a big win over Alex Morono in his last fight. But he seems a bit chinny at times at this point in his career. I think Themba comes through in a big way here. He has scored very well in his wins with scores of 113.9, 130.0, and 109.0. Themba’s sole loss in the UFC came in his debut in the second round to a submission from Fletcher, where Themba scored just 22.8 DK points.

Junior is not that great as an MMA fighter. He is a good kick boxer, which he will probably be able to display in this fight. I don’t trust Tafa at all. Sharaf comes form a military background as a Marine prior to his fighting career. He’s 31-years-old so not really a spring chicken. He has only had 4 professional fights that have ended very early. He’s big, athletic, with HEAVY hands. So who really knows here. All I can say is that somebody is probably getting knocked the eff out. I’m going to take some dog shot here, mostly based on salary and perceived upside. I guess Tafa is a leverage play.

Julia is coming off a loss in her UFC debut. Her wrestling looked decent in the matchup, but she could not handle the range of her much taller opponent in Knutsson. She still put up a decent score of 53.2 in the decision loss. In this matchup, I like Julia due to her upside. I think she could put up a decent score in a win. I’m not going crazy with exposure, but I will try to get some. If McKenna stays in her face, she will probably get the win, but I don’t know that the output will be enough to support her salary.

Cody never stops moving and weaponizes his cardio. Argueta is built for wrestling with a short, stalky frame. He is in underdog consideration based on his ground game. But I think Cody gets it done here. Argueta missed weight and will forfeit 20 percent of his purse for missing. I think Haddon is in a decent spot here. 

Clayton Carpenter 8.8k vs Lucas Rocha 7.4k

Clayton Carpenter is a strong grappler who got a first round submission in his first fight. He scored 98.6 in his first fight. He puts a pace on his opponents with non-stopped wrestling. Lucas gets taken down pretty easily. Lucas has a strong amateur record of 17-1. He has some wins where he gutted it out and found a way to win. I’ll probably focus more on Carpenter here for his upside.

Good luck, everybody! I look forward to talking about strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord. Let’s get it!

10/12 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

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