We’re back at the UFC Apex for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira, a card loaded with exciting matchups and DFS opportunities. With high-end options like Robelis Despaigne and Jake Hadley offering strong finish lines and favorable pricing, there’s plenty of leverage to be found in GPPs. However, unpredictable mid-tier bouts and a few mispriced fighters mean this slate may require a more strategic approach, especially for single-entry or 3-max contests. Let’s dive into the key plays and matchups to help you craft winning lineups.

Robelis Despaigne 67% Finish Line; 47% First Round Finish; 74% Implied Win Prob.

Jake Hadley 51% Finish Line; 23% First Round Finish; 79% Win Prob.

Anthony Hernandez 43% Finish Line; 14% First Round Finish; 55% Implied Win Prob.

Michel Pereira 38% Finish Line; 16% First Round Finish; 45% Win Prob.

Favorite Value Plays/Live Dog Options (8k and below)

This is going to be an odd card with dicey high end picks, less than amazing mid-tier options (aside from one), and sick value plays. Jake Hadley is mispriced AF as a -450 favorite at 7.7k; his ownership will reflect his pricing as likely mega chalk. I really like Kyler Phillips and Charles Johnson to win, but I don’t know if they will score well enough to hit optimal. I feel like Robelis Despaigne is being set up for a win after an awful loss in his last fight where he couldn’t get up when taken down. Probably my overall favorite play would be Asu Almabayev at 8.7k. The value plays are lit this week. I love Darren Elkins and Michel Pereira this week as dogs. This might be a good single entry or 3 max kind of week. I usually don’t play either of those options for MMA, but I might do so this week. 

Pereira is the most athletic and explosive fighter Hernandez has fought. I really like Periera here as he has been an absolute savage since moving up to the 185lb division (middleweight). He has said he used to cut 46 lbs for his fights. There seems to be a perception that Michel Pereira is prone to gassing out. Interestingly, he hasn’t shown any cardio concerns in like 5 years and definitely not since he has switched weight classes. Hernandez is crazy durable and will stay in fights. He is well rounded and puts up numbers in his wins. Fluffy has the following scores in his wins: 107, 115.9, 120.2, 117.2, 94, and 134.8. Since moving up in weight class, Pereira has put up the following scores: 117.7, 94.9, and 102.5. One of these guys is going to be optimal, I would assume. 

These fighters don’t generally put up great scores on DK. On the bright side, Kyler has never put up less than 73.5 DK in any of his UFC bouts; on the other hand, he’s scored in the 70s in 4 of his 7 bouts. Phillips did score 90.8 and 97.6 in his first two fights in 2020 and again put up 98.6 in 2022. Font seems like dust at this point. He has put up decent scores in his wins with top DK scores of 113.3, 114.3, 114.0, and 118.7. With that said, Rob has put up scores of 19.5 and 13.8 in his last two decision losses and the latter was a 5-round fight. I don’t blame someone if they just clicked the fade button on both these guys. 

Johnson is a busy striker with endless cardio. He is durable and well rounded. There’s a lot of ways he can get the win in this match up. Sumudaerji is a powerful striker who is pretty skilled on the feet. The best approach for Johnson would be to take him to the ground. Charles has been pretty cerebral in his game plans and it’ll be interesting to see his approach in this matchup. I like him regardless of his approach, but I hope he tries to wrestle. He scored 92 DK points in his last fight where he chinned Van, but he has historically struggled to put up decent DK scores, with only one fight with over 100 DK points in 9 fights. His decision wins typically end up in the 72-83 range. The only time Charles has really struggled is when he faces a wrestling-heavy fighter. That is not Sumudaerji who has only tried one take down in his UFC career. I love Charles Johnson here but worry about his upside at his price point. 

Jake Hadley 7.7k vs Cameron Smotherman 6.7k

This is a short-notice fight after a cancellation with Hadley’s original opponent. Hadley was initially the underdog and DK set his price accordingly. When that fight was canceled, Jake was rescheduled with Smotherman and became the heavy Vegas favorite. Once a fighter’s price is set on DK, they do not change it, for some odd reason. Smotherman was priced according to updated Vegas odds as the heavy underdog in this matchup. For single entry or 3-max, you probably just lock Hadley in. There’s a lot of leverage on Smotherman for GPPs, but I don’t know that I get there in 20 max.

Daniel Pineda has like half a round of cardio, unless he has improved in that area. You see him get really sloppy when fatigue sets in. He will start to engage with his grappling after that, which sets up perfectly for Elkins. If he can survive early, which I think he does, Elkins will be in a very good spot win the grappling exchanges. Pineda tends to settle for poor position, especially on bottom, and Darren is going to probably just grapple the shit out of him. Elkens can put up big boy scores in the right match up, with his top scores being 110.9, 117.2, and 121.8. Pineda has put up some decent scores in the past, but only two of them are within the last four years with a 102.2 in 2023 against Lutz and a 137.2 against Burns in 2020. In his other 8 bouts, he’s only surprised 50 DK points once way back in 2013. I’m rolling with Elkins here and probably mostly fading Pineda.

Asu Almabayev 8.7k vs Matheus Nicolau 7.5k

Asu is a well-rounded fighter that is skilled in non-stopped wrestling; but the dude can strike as well. Nicolau has gotten slept in his last two fights. His chin seems to be gone. I’m just going to keep it simple. I think Almabayev rolls here and smokes him. I’m playing the hell out of him. I should say, Nicolau is a good counter striker who is skilled. I don’t think it’ll be enough, but it’s possible if Asu uncharacteristically gets sloppy. 

There are a lot of people really high on Jean Matsumoto. This is his second bout in the UFC after a submission win over Dan Argueta, who we saw last week. It’s hard to say, but I think he’s good and will get the win here. But Katona is a dog who I will be playing. For one, his price just fits into a lot of lineups that I really like otherwise. Katona is well rounded and solid at pulling out ugly decisions. If he stays in his face, who knows what might happen… I think both are probably in play, but not my favorite options. 

Joselyne Edwards 8.9k vs. Tamires Videl 7.3k

This is probably going the distance. And it seems hard to imagine Edwards scoring well enough to make her optimal at her price. I feel pretty confident she gets the win here, but I’m always caution with WMMA. I think Edwards is better than her last two losses would indicate, but she’s only scored over 65 DK points in 3 of 8 fights. Her high score is 99.4. Videl got finished with a tit punch in her last fight. 

I’m probably fading this fight. Reed should win here, but there’s no way she’s paying off her price tag. She’s also pretty inconsistent in her performances in general. At times, she looks very good. Her highest three scores in seven matchups are as follows: 62.1 (2023), 82.0 (2022), and 70.1 (2022). Penne has been in the UFC since 2014 and looks like she’s ready to move up in her last two fights. She’s scored over 68 DK points only three times in her 10-year-old long career (only eight fights): 107.4 (2021), 68.9 (2021), and 93.6 (2014). I’m probably not touching it unless it’s an over 2.5 round bet or something like that. 

Martinez is coming back from a two-year lay off due to a knee injury. She is a powerful striker that has some power in her hands. Melissa Martinez has one decision lost in the UFC in 2022. I’m definitely not playing her at her price point. I like Ardelean more as the dog in this contest and think she has a real shot at winning. Alice also lost a decision in her UFC debut against Bannon in July. She looked pretty good and it seemed like she might have actually won that fight. I’m not going crazy, but Ardelean is probably in play a bit.

Robelis Despaigne is an insane athlete and physical specimen. He’s a 6’8” monster that will immediately take you out in a striking affair. He smoked Parisian in his first fight and looked unstoppable. This was similar to each of his fights prior to his UFC debut. In his most recent fight in April of 2024, Robelis got taken down and controlled the whole fight. He gassed quickly with the wrestling approach and looked horrible as a heavy favorite. He’s so fun to watch, I think the promotion is setting him up for a huge win like fight promotions sometimes do. Austen Lane is also an unbelieve athlete that played in the NFL. But he is chinny as they come and not the best with his ground game. If Lange gets takedowns, it’s probably over and he will smash at his price point. More likely, Despaigne just sends him to Valhalla in the first round. Good luck, everybody! 

I look forward to talking about strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord. Let’s get it!

10/19 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

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