UFC 309 features a highly anticipated showdown as heavyweight champion Jon Jones takes on former champ Stipe Miocic at Madison Square Garden. The event kicks off Saturday night, with the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET. Jones enters with an impressive streak of 18 straight wins and hasn’t officially lost since 2009, while Miocic returns to the octagon after a lengthy hiatus since 2021. The co-main event highlights a lightweight clash between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler.

Bo Nickal 77% Finish Line; 40% First Round Finish; 89% Implied Win Prob.

Jon Jones 65% Finish Line; 24% First Round Finish; 83% Win Prob.

David Onama 62% Finish Line; 28% First Round Finish; 87% Implied Win Prob.

Charles Oliveira 61% Finish Line; 29% First Round Finish; 69% Win Prob.

Top Fights to Target/GPP Plays and Pivots

Marcus McGhee 8.4k/Jonathan Martinez 7.8k

Let’s keep it real—Stipe Miocic is a legend, the statistical GOAT of UFC heavyweights, and a full-time fireman. But let’s not ignore the glaring issues: he hasn’t fought in 

, he’s 41, and ring rust is inevitable. And against Jon Jones? That’s a mountain too steep to climb.

Jon Jones isn’t just the light heavyweight GOAT; he’s arguably the greatest fighter MMA has ever seen. Undefeated (let’s not count that DQ), Jones is elite everywhere—dominant striking, suffocating wrestling, and a fight IQ that’s off the charts. He’s out-grappled Olympians like Daniel Cormier and boasts a 4-to-2 striking ratio with rock-solid defense. Physically? He’s in ridiculous shape, and with a skill set this deep, he can win wherever the fight goes. Stipe’s résumé speaks for itself—most heavyweight title defenses, sharp boxing, great timing on takedowns, and a chin that’s withstood wars. Statistically, he’s still in the positive across the board, but let’s face it: he’s been inactive since losing to Ngannou, and time isn’t on his side.

Jon Jones takes this one—and probably with ease. Whether it’s an early takedown leading to ground-and-pound or a striking clinic, Jones has too many tools for an aging, rusty Miocic. 

Charles Oliveira 9k vs. Michael Chandler 7.2k

Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler feels like déjà vu, but let’s break it down. Chandler is a powerhouse wrestler with explosive hands and relentless pressure, but his kryptonite has always been getting caught in scrambles. Oliveira, meanwhile, is a submission wizard with the most subs in UFC history, paired with sharp kickboxing and precision striking. Chandler looks like a beast physically and could surprise after his two-year layoff, but history suggests he’ll throw caution to the wind and walk into a submission. While Chandler is the bold pick and live here, Charles Oliveira is the more probable play—he’s probably too well-rounded and too dangerous in transitions.

Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig is a clash of grapplers, but it’s Bo’s fight to lose. Nickal, a world-class wrestler with multiple D1 national titles, can dictate where this fight goes—and it probably won’t stay standing long. His striking is minimal (only 23 significant strikes in 6 fights), but against a striker like Craig, who’s far from a knockout artist, Bo might even test his hands. Craig is always dangerous with submissions and has a knack for wild comebacks, but his lack of effective takedowns means he won’t control where the fight happens. Bo is better everywhere this fight matters. 

Karine Silva vs. Viviane Araujo is a solid matchup that pits Silva’s relentless grappling against Vivi’s well-rounded game. Silva is a finisher with 17 stoppages in 18 wins, using her forward pressure to force takedowns and hunt submissions. Araujo, meanwhile, is a technical striker with powerful low kicks, strong takedown defense (78%), and solid grappling of her own. While Vivi can definitely spoil with her toughness and pace, Silva’s well-timed takedowns and control likely edge her out in a close one. I think Silva probably wins by decision.

Mauricio Ruffy 9.6k vs. James Llontop 6.6k

Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop feels like a showcase for Ruffy, but it’s not a walk in the park. Ruffy is a devastating striker with 10 wins, all by stoppage, combining sharp 1-2s, explosive kicks, and solid takedown defense. His timing and power are elite, and while his cardio isn’t perfect, it holds up late. Llontop is tough and well-rounded, with good striking combinations, body work, and a strong get-up game if taken down. However, his pressure isn’t enough to match Ruffy’s speed, power, and technique. I would guess that Ruffy wins by KO.

Marcus McGhee 8.4k vs. Jonathan Martinez 7.8k

Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee is a classic clash of technique vs. power. Martinez is a sharp Muay Thai striker with excellent kicks for controlling range and sneaky submissions in scrambles. He’s technical and steady but can struggle when pressured. McGhee, on the other hand, is a dangerous finisher with knockout power, solid wrestling, and submissions of his own. The concern? McGhee’s cardio hasn’t been fully tested, as he’s usually ending fights early. If this goes deep, Martinez’s technical edge could take over, but McGhee’s explosiveness makes him a real threat. Marcus McGhee might get the KO and I’m leaning towards a win for him, but I would not be surprised at all if Martinez controls the distance with kicks and pulls off a win. This one will be very interesting.

Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders is a battle of veterans with plenty of mileage. Weidman, a former middleweight champ, still boasts solid wrestling and striking fundamentals, but at 40, his speed and durability are fading. Post-USADA, he’s looking better, but he’s far from his prime. Anders, on the other hand, is a physical athlete with decent wrestling and power, though his technique often lags behind. He keeps his hands low, which has cost him in the past, and he looked shaky in his last fight despite the win. Both fighters have questionable chins, so expect a gritty, sloppy, but entertaining scrap. I would lean towards Weidman slightly.

Picking against Jim Miller is tough—he’s a legend and as gritty as they come, but age is catching up with him. Miller’s got solid grappling and clean boxing, but at 41, he’s slowing down, and his game isn’t evolving with the times. Damon Jackson, on the other hand, is a younger, more dynamic grappler who’s shown striking improvements and has the wrestling to control this fight. His takedown accuracy isn’t the best, but when he gets it to the ground, he’s tough to shake. Miller’s BJJ is still good, but it’s not enough to keep Jackson from winning the positional battles.

This fight is a tough spot for Roberto Romero. He’s stepping up on short notice, and while he’s a tough grappler with decent pressure, he lacks the danger to seriously threaten Onama. David Onama is a slick kickboxer with a strong jab and good clinch game, and while his takedown defense isn’t perfect, he’s been able to handle it so far. Romero’s grappling won’t be enough to outwork Onama, who should be able to control the pace and likely finish this one.

Marcin Tybura may not be the most exciting fighter, but he’s a durable grinder who knows how to get the job done. His striking is basic, and his takedown game isn’t flashy, but he’s persistent and knows how to wear opponents down. Jhonata Diniz, on the other hand, is a dangerous striker with power and speed, but we’ve already seen his game fall apart on the ground, which is a big issue against someone like Tybura. If Marcin can close the distance and get this fight to the mat, he should cruise to a win. But I think Diniz is very good and is live for a KO if he can stay on his feet.

This fight feels like a coin toss at best, but I’m leaning Mickey Gall. Neither fighter has proven much at this level—Mickey is 1-4 in his last five, and Ramiz hasn’t tapped anyone still on the roster. That said, Mickey is tough, has better cardio, and won’t panic in grappling exchanges. Ramiz is dangerous but way too one-dimensional with his submission-or-bust style. If Mickey can avoid getting caught, he’s the gamer who can outlast Ramiz in a sloppy fight. 

This matchup is a toss-up. Oban Elliott has the cardio, well-rounded skills, and clean striking, but he’s not dangerous and can be taken down. Bassil brings relentless pressure, heavy hands, and solid wrestling, though his cardio is the wildcard. If he can avoid gassing, his takedowns and pace could overwhelm Oban. Just pick your side here.

Eduarda Moura 7.5k vs. Veronica Hardy 8.7k

This fight could come down to how the NYC commission scores it: ground control or striking damage. Eduarda Moura is aggressive with takedowns and solid grappling but struggled in her last fight against a superior striker. Veronica Hardy is a sharp, technical striker with quick footwork and solid power, and she also has clean takedowns when needed. If Hardy can keep it standing, her speed and striking could carry her to victory. But I kind of like Moura to win a decision here. In a fight card without amazing value, Moura could provide that. 

Good luck, everybody! I look forward to talking about strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord. Let’s get it!

11/16 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

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DaveVR

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