UFC Vegas 100 at the APEX features a key welterweight matchup between Neil Magny and Carlos Prates, with potential for a momentum shift in the division. Despite three canceled fights, the event moves forward with 12 bouts, showcasing contenders, a former champion from an outside promotion, and DWCS/TUF alumni. It’s not the greatest DFS card, but we got fights this weekend so let’s make the best of it. The Hero MMA data was elite last week

Carlos Prates 75% Finish Line; 30% First Round Finish; 85% Implied Win Prob.

Mansur Abdul-Malik 63% Finish Line; 38% First Round Finish; 78% Win Prob.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 51% Finish Line; 25% First Round Finish; 84% Implied Win Prob.

Gillian Robertson 51% Finish Line; 24% First Round Finish; 76% Win Prob.

Favorite Value Plays/Live Dog Options (8k and below)

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 8k (Best Play on Slate for DK)

Carlos Prates and Neil Magny present an intriguing matchup of precision versus experience. Prates brings incredible striking power, accuracy, and footwork, boasting a nine-fight KO streak and a diverse kicking game that can land anywhere, anytime. Meanwhile, Magny is a seasoned UFC vet with solid grappling and an all-around skillset, often testing rising prospects with his durability and relentless pace. Although Magny’s grappling is formidable, his recent loss to Michael Morales exposed some vulnerability when pressured. Given Prates’ striking accuracy and the difficulty of grappling without taking hits, Prates is favored to extend his KO streak to 10. 

Gerald Meerschaert 7.1k vs. Reinier De Ridder 9.1k

This matchup pits Gerald Meerschaert, the submission-savvy "comeback king," against Reinier de Ridder, a former two-division ONE FC champ with a similar grappling foundation but stronger takedowns. While both fighters struggle with striking, de Ridder’s height and reach give him a slight edge in stand-up exchanges. Meerschaert is always a submission threat, despite his low takedown accuracy, often relying on his resilience to turn the tide. De Ridder, however, brings improved wrestling and submission control, making him a more reliable DraftKings pick. Look for dynamic ground exchanges, with de Ridder as the favorite to secure a win.

Gillian Robertson 9.2k vs. Luana Pinheiro 7k

This matchup leans toward Gillian Robertson, the division’s submission specialist with a track record of nine finishes and the highest number of flyweight finishes in UFC history. Although Luana Pinheiro is a powerful striker with respectable takedown defense and a high-volume style, her recent loss to Angela Hill exposed vulnerabilities in her grappling defense. While Pinheiro’s striking can pose a threat, Robertson’s relentless grappling game and ability to secure submissions make her a more reliable DraftKings pick, as she’s likely to exploit Pinheiro’s ground weaknesses. Robertson is favored to take this one by submission.

Mansur Abdul-Malik 9.3k vs. Dusko Todorovic 6.9k

Mansur Abdul-Malik’s elite wrestling background, powerful takedowns, and aggressive top game give him a clear edge in his UFC debut against Dusko Todorovic. Abdul-Malik’s explosive style and ability to control opponents on the ground align with the high expectations for his debut, especially at -330 odds. While Todorovic offers a striking advantage with technical power and high volume, his questionable chin and recent knee injury raise concerns about his ability to handle Abdul-Malik’s relentless pressure. Given his superior wrestling and ground control, Mansur is the strong pick to win this fight.

Denise Gomes 9.4k vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz 6.8k

This fight highlights the experience of Karolina Kowalkiewicz against the youthful power and aggression of Denise Gomes. Kowalkiewicz’s technical kickboxing, grit, and solid takedown defense have kept her competitive, though her recent loss to Iasmin Lucindo showed signs of slowing down. Gomes, on the other hand, is a high-paced, tough striker who can also grapple when needed. While Gomes can be hittable, her forward pressure and resilience allow her to outlast opponents. Unless Kowalkiewicz can control distance and employ a tactical game plan, Gomes’ speed and power should carry her to a win here, though the 5-1 odds may not reflect the fight’s competitiveness.

Cortavious Romious 8.7k vs. Gaston Bolanos 7.5k

This matchup pits Cortavious Romious’ balanced grappling and striking against Gaston Bolanos’s powerful Muay Thai. Romious, though not highly technical in striking, is aggressive, has heavy kicks, and utilizes solid takedowns with a submission-oriented ground game. His versatility makes him a more well-rounded fighter, but his chin has been a concern, as he’s been quickly knocked out in past fights. Bolanos, meanwhile, brings knockout power and a dangerous spinning back elbow, though he struggles with grappling and lacks a Plan B if outpaced on the feet. While Bolanos has the power to end it early, Romious’ range of skills makes him the slight pick here, though playing either of these fighters comes with an obvious risk.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 8k vs. Zach Scroggin 6.7k

In this matchup, Elizeu Zaleski brings well-rounded skills and UFC experience, showcasing power, athleticism, and stamina with a dynamic striking style. His recent loss to Randy Brown was due to a stand-up disadvantage, yet he remains a threat on the ground and has proven cardio. In contrast, Zach Scroggin, though a tall, strong presence at 6 '3", lacks technical striking skills, standing too upright and leaving himself vulnerable with a tilted-back head. While he shows some grappling promise and effective leg kicks, his overall inexperience and striking limitations place him at a disadvantage. Ultimately, Zaleski’s experience, versatility, and power make him the favorite to dominate this fight.

Charles Radtke 8.5k vs. Matthew Semelsberger 7.7k

This fight showcases Charles Radtke’s well-rounded grappling and controlled power against Matt Semelsberger’s aggressive, heavy-handed striking. Radtke is a skilled wrestler with solid takedowns, positional control, and a penchant for submissions, although he can sometimes lose position chasing finishes. Semelsberger’s forward pressure and knockout power make him dangerous on the feet, with 10 knockdowns in the UFC, but his 45% takedown defense leaves him vulnerable to Radtke’s wrestling. While Semelsberger’s toughness could keep him competitive, Radtke’s grappling edge and composure make him the pick to win.

Da’Mon Blackshear 8.9k vs. Cody Stamann 7.3k

In this fight, Da’Mon Blackshear appears to have the advantage with his superior striking, athleticism, and wrestling ability. Blackshear mixes clean boxing with technical takedowns, giving him a versatile edge over Cody Stamann. Although he has a 2-4 UFC record, his losses came against high-level opponents, showing he can compete at this level despite a recent quick KO loss to Montel Jackson. Stamann, though a well-rounded fighter with strong wrestling and a durable boxing base, lacks the finishing power to pose a major threat. While Stamann may keep things competitive, Da’Mon’s striking and wrestling make him the pick to win here.

Antonio Trocoli 7.6k vs. Tresean Gore 8.6k

Tresean Gore enters UFC Vegas 100 with significant question marks, including ring rust from multiple surgeries and a lack of experience at the highest level, as shown by his mixed UFC record of 1-2. While Gore has raw power and athleticism, his striking defense and ground game remain areas of concern, evidenced by his close win over Josh Fremd and limited development in the past two years. Antonio Trocoli, despite a rough debut against Shara Magomedov, is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking, a five-inch reach advantage, and strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills. Trocoli’s experience and ability to exploit Gore’s vulnerabilities on the feet and on the ground make him the pick to win here.

Melissa Mullins 8.8k vs. Klaudia Sygula 7.4k

Melissa Mullins vs. Klaudia Sygula offers an interesting matchup of grappling power against clinch striking. Mullins has a slight edge with her BJJ credentials, physicality, and ability to work from top control if she can secure takedowns. Though her striking is powerful and clean, her defensive gaps make her vulnerable. Sygula, meanwhile, is a high-volume striker who thrives in the clinch, where she lands uppercuts and knees effectively. However, her ground game lags, as she tends to look for submissions off her back rather than working to stand up. Mullins’ physicality and grappling give her the edge here, making her the pick to win. 

Good luck, everybody! I look forward to talking about strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord. Let’s get it!

11/09 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

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