Saturday night is stacked with action as UFC 310 takes over T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Headlining the card is a flyweight title fight, with champion Alexandre Pantoja putting his belt on the line for the third time. He’s facing Kai Asakura, a two-time Rizin bantamweight champ making his UFC debut. Big stakes and even bigger questions here: can Asakura’s explosive style handle Pantoja’s relentless pressure and grappling?

The co-main event keeps the excitement rolling with undefeated welterweights Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry squaring off. This one’s not just a fight—it’s essentially a title eliminator. Whoever wins could be next in line for Belal Muhammad’s 170-pound crown. Expect fireworks.

And don’t sleep on the heavyweight bout between Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov. Two technical strikers with contrasting styles going head-to-head could make for an intriguing chess match—or an all-out war.

Chase Hooper 61% Finish Line; 26% First Round Finish; 88% Implied Win Prob.

Kennedy Nzechukwu 58% Finish Line; 25% First Round Finish; 81% Win Prob.

Shavkat Rakhmonov 52% Finish Line; 18% First Round Finish; 76% Implied Win Prob.

Dominick Reyes 51% Finish Line; 24% First Round Finish; 74% Win Prob.

Alexandre Pantoja 46% Finish Line; 18% First Round Finish; 68% Win Prob.

Bryan Battle 36% Finish Line; 18% First Round Finish; 66% Win Prob.

Joshua Van 34% Finish Line; 18% First Round Finish; 59% Win Prob.

My Top Fights to Target/GPP Plays and Pivots

Alexandre Pantoja 8.8k vs. Kai Asakura 7.4k

I’m so excited for this fight! It’s going to be an absolute banger. Here we go—Alexandre Pantoja, the flyweight king, is defending his title for the third time, but this time against UFC newcomer Kai Asakura. Asakura is an exciting addition to the UFC roster, known for his speed, aggression, and killer instinct. The guy has lightning-fast strikes and loves to put on a show, making him a potential fan favorite. However, this fight has a lot stacked against him. First off, he’s jumping in against a champion in a title fight, and not just any champion—Pantoja’s got experience, durability, and elite grappling skills that will test Asakura in ways he’s never seen before. Plus, Asakura is cutting weight to fight at 125, and we’ve seen guys struggle with pressure fighters when they’re dealing with a tough cut.

Pantoja, on the other hand, thrives in the grind. His striking is solid and his pressure is relentless. He’s not flashy, but he doesn’t need to be—he’s an exceptional grappler with fantastic control and ground and pound. Pantoja’s durability is key too. The only fighters who’ve really troubled him are the ones who can control him with wrestling, and Asakura hasn’t shown a ton of wrestling defense in his career so far. He’s an explosive striker, but he tends to slow down, especially if the fight goes past the first few rounds. His lack of experience against grapplers and the pressure of a title fight in the UFC could be his downfall here.

All things considered, Pantoja looks like the clear favorite. He has the grappling, the experience, and the durability to withstand Asakura’s early blitz and eventually wear him down. Asakura is dangerous and creative, but Pantoja’s grappling pressure will likely be too much. Expect Pantoja to defend his title once again in what might be a fun, back-and-forth scrap—unless Asakura’s takedown defense is way better than we think. But, yeah, Pantoja gets it done.

Shavkat Rakhmonov 9.2k vs. Ian Machado Garry 7k

This one's a tough call for sure. Shavkat Rakhmonov, the undefeated phenom with a 100% finish rate, goes up against Ian Garry, a striker with crazy speed and footwork. On paper, Shavkat seems like the man to beat. He's 18-0, with a mix of knockout power and submissions that make him dangerous anywhere the fight goes. The dude’s tough to hit, has solid wrestling, and has finished everyone he’s faced so far. His last win, a submission over Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, was impressive, but it was clear that his takedowns were a bit of a struggle, as he went just 1-for-5 in attempts.

Then there’s Ian Garry, the lightning-fast striker with great movement and an impressive 6 significant strikes per minute. Garry’s takedown defense is solid, so he’s hard to take down, and he can avoid a lot of the chaos on the ground. Sure, his power isn’t one-punch KO material, but he uses his timing and hand speed to catch guys off guard. Ian’s faced adversity too—he got dropped in the Song Kenan fight but came back strong. He even ground out a win against MVP, though some think he lost that one.

Here’s where it gets tricky: Shavkat might be more dangerous overall, but Ian Garry isn’t someone you can sleep on. Ian’s got the tools to avoid Shavkat’s takedowns and keep the fight standing. However, Shavkat has that ability to pull out the win in multiple ways—on the feet or on the ground. The question is, can he get Garry down? Garry's got good takedown defense, but Shavkat's creativity and danger might make the difference.

In the end, I’m leaning towards Shavkat to get the win. He’s just too well-rounded and too dangerous, but Ian Garry is definitely a live dog here and could surprise. I’m thinking Shavkat wins this, but don’t be shocked if Garry makes it a fight. I’ll have exposure to both sides here.

In this heavyweight rematch, we’ve got Ciryl Gane facing off with Alexander Volkov once again. Their first encounter in 2021 saw Gane use his movement and striking skills to cruise to a clear decision victory, and honestly, it’s hard to see how Volkov changes that in the rematch.

Gane is an absolute maestro when it comes to footwork and striking. With a high volume, impressive in-and-out movement, and a 5-2 striking differential, he’s one of the most fluid strikers in the division. Gane can mix in takedowns as well, and his range and speed give him a huge advantage over most heavyweights. He’s coming off a dominant KO win over Serghei Spivac, landing 109 strikes to Spivac’s 11. But, as we saw against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones, Gane can struggle when it comes to wrestling, so that could be an avenue for Volkov if he decides to change up his approach.

Volkov, on the other hand, is a skilled striker with a high fight IQ, known for his volume and precision. He’s been a fixture in the top 10 for years, but he’s not a power puncher, and he lacks the speed to keep up with Gane’s footwork. While Volkov had a solid win over Sergey Pavlovich in his last fight, he didn’t show much in the way of wrestling, and in the first fight with Gane, he didn’t attempt a single takedown. If he doesn’t try something different here—like mixing in some wrestling—he’s likely in for another striking battle he’ll lose on points.

The prediction? Gane takes this one again. His movement and striking are just too much for Volkov, and without a major shift in game plan from Volkov, it’s hard to see him turning the tables. Gane should comfortably get the win in this rematch.

Bryce Mitchell and Kron Gracie are about to throw down, and let’s be real—this one’s probably not going to be a pretty striking affair. Bryce, a relentless wrestler with a solid game plan, will almost certainly be diving for takedowns the second the fight starts. Sure, his striking is a bit on the awkward side, but he doesn’t even pretend to care about that. He’s all about grinding, controlling, and working for submissions once the fight hits the ground. Bryce isn’t afraid to make it ugly, and after that brutal KO loss to Josh Emmett, you know he’ll be hungry to bounce back.

On the flip side, there’s Kron Gracie, a BJJ prodigy with world-class grappling skills. The problem? His MMA skills are still a work in progress. After suffering a tough loss to Cub Swanson years ago, he took time to improve his striking, but honestly, it didn’t help much. His return to the octagon was a disaster—he got dominated by Charles Jourdain, looking lost both on the feet and the ground. Kron’s best shot is to turn this into a grappling contest, but with Bryce’s wrestling and control, that’s looking like a tall order.

Bryce Mitchell should have this one in the bag. His wrestling and pressure are just too much for Kron at this point. Expect Bryce to grind out a win, likely with a dominant ground game, and leave Kron trying to catch up. The biggest concern is his price tag.

Doo Ho Choi, the Korean Super Boy, might be getting a little long in the tooth at 33, but he's still got the potential to reignite his career. This fight could definitely be a chance to turn some heads—if he can finish the always-durable Nate Landwehr, we could be talking about Choi's comeback for real. But here's the catch: Choi’s takedown defense isn’t great, and Nate’s got relentless takedown pressure that could be a real issue for him. Nate Landwehr is a wild man, always coming forward with crazy aggression. He’s a guy who just doesn’t know how to back down, and while he’s taken his fair share of damage, he finds a way to survive and keep pushing. However, he's 36 now, and how many more "almost KO" moments can his chin take before it starts failing him?

As fun as this fight is shaping up to be, I think Nate’s relentless style and ability to grind Choi out on the ground is the deciding factor here. He’s got the pressure and the toughness to make it a war, and at this stage, I’m leaning towards him to come out on top.

Dominick Reyes 9.1k vs. Anthony Smith 7.1k 

Dominick Reyes is somehow being pegged as a 4-1 favorite heading into this fight, largely off his first win in five years over Dustin Jacoby. But let’s pump the brakes for a second. He’s coming off a long layoff and only fought 3.5 minutes in the last 3.5 years. That's a tough stat to ignore, and it makes you wonder if he's really ready for a return to form. On the other side, Anthony Smith is certainly no spring chicken. He’s slower, been through some brutal fights, and is clearly on the back end of his career. But don't count him out just yet—Smith is tough as nails, with solid hands, kicks, and great jiu-jitsu. He’s the kind of guy who will show up to fight, chin intact, and still has the skills to get the job done, even if he's not quite the same fighter he once was. Reyes might have the edge in technical skill, but with his limited recent experience and Smith’s heart, I’m picking Anthony Smith here. He’s the safer bet simply because we know he’ll bring the fight from start to finish. But let’s be clear—this is a risky one on both sides.

Themba Gorimbo 8.6k vs. Vicente Luque 7.6k

This one has the potential for a surprise, and I’m leaning toward Themba Gorimbo pulling off the win. Yes, he’s stepping in on short notice, but don’t sleep on him. Gorimbo is a solid wrestler with great cardio, and if he sticks to his gameplan from his last couple of fights, he can definitely find success here. Vicente Luque is a tough opponent, but Themba’s got the tools to disrupt him. With solid takedown defense and 17 takedowns in 5 UFC fights, he can keep Luque from getting too comfortable on the feet. Luque’s takedown defense isn’t flawless, and with Gorimbo’s pressure, he could wear him down and dominate the grappling exchanges. Plus, Themba’s length and ability to manage distance could give him the edge in striking. There’s also the fact that Luque is coming off a serious brain bleed injury from his knockout loss to Geoff Neal in 2022. While he’s bounced back with a win over an aging Rafael Dos Anjos, he hasn’t looked quite the same since that injury. This is a big test for Luque, and I’m thinking Themba might be the one to take advantage of it. Don’t count him out—he’s ready to prove himself. I like Themba Gorimbo via decision or late submission, but I will probably have some exposure to Luque. There’s a pretty decent chance we just forgot how good Luque is

Movsar Evloev 8.9k vs. Aljamain Sterling 7.3k

This fight is a rough setup for Aljamain Sterling. He’s a phenomenal backpack-style grappler with sharp kicks to manage range, but Movsar Evloev is a different animal. Movsar’s wrestling is elite, with seamless setups and relentless pressure—38 takedowns in 8 UFC fights speak for themselves. Aljo’s striking has improved, but he doesn’t have the firepower to keep Movsar at bay or the size to impose his grappling. Training with Merab doesn’t magically make Aljo bulletproof on the mat, and Movsar’s game is built to nullify someone like him. Expect a grindy, dominant win for Evloev. I like Movsar Evloev via decision in a wrestling clinic.

This matchup is a classic clash of styles: Randy Brown, the lanky, technical striker, versus Bryan Battle, the relentless scrapper with big power. Brown’s ability to manage range and pick opponents apart with his jab and kicks is a problem for anyone, but his chin has been checked by heavy hitters in the past. Battle isn’t the most polished, but his relentless pace and finishing ability make him dangerous—especially if he can make it a brawl. Brown’s takedown defense and slick striking give him the tools to win a clean fight, but if Battle lands big or makes it ugly, it could be his night. I like Bryan Battle to edge it with his grit and power. But I’m concerned that he missed weight by four pounds. He looked like death on the scales. You have to remember, this is a guy that started his MMA journey, as I have mentioned in the past, as a 300-lb heavy weight in his debut at 21-years-old. He has shown extreme discipline since that time after changing his mental and physical approach. I was extremely confident in him earlier this week, but it at minimum raises an eyebrow. I still think he gets it done, but something to think about.

This fight is back on after being scrapped at UFC 309, and now it’s a catchweight at 195 lbs—great news for both guys, who won’t have to kill themselves cutting weight. Chris Weidman is a former middleweight king with a legendary resume and a killer wrestling base, but at 40 years old, his best days are behind him. Eryk Anders, on the other hand, is an explosive athlete with decent striking, solid wrestling, and a knack for making fights gritty. He’s not the most polished guy, but he’s tough, physical, and dangerous. In this matchup, Anders’ athleticism and pressure gives him the edge over the aging Weidman, in my mind. But this could easily go either way.

This one’s a tough call with both guys rocking questionable chins, but here’s the deal: Cody Durden is a relentless pressure wrestler who throws heavy (and often wild) punches to set up his takedowns. Problem is, he’s got a habit of thinking he’s a boxing champ and getting clipped. Joshua Van, on the other hand, is a young, evolving striker with solid scrambling ability and a knack for making opponents uncomfortable, but his last fight showed some shaky moments too. If Durden sticks to his wrestling game, his cardio and aggression should be enough to edge this out. I like Durden to get it done in this match up - at his price point, he could be a great underdog.

This matchup feels like a battle of "who’s got a little gas left in the tank." Michael Chiesa might not be the most explosive guy, but his straightforward grappling-heavy style could be enough to slow things down and control the fight. Max Griffin, though dangerous with his power and highlight-worthy knockouts (remember the ear incident?), is showing his age at 39 and has lost some of that pop. Expect a gritty, messy back-and-forth in this exchange. I think Chiesa probably grinds his way to a decision win, but it’s really hard to say.

This fight has a bit of history—Chase Hooper and Clay Guida faced off in a grappling match last year, and it wasn’t even close. Chase dominated, wrapping things up with a calf slicer. Now, it’s a full-on fight, but the result probably won’t be much different. Clay is a legend, no doubt, but at 42 with 62 fights under his belt, he’s slowed down considerably. Chase, on the other hand, is evolving fast, with slick grappling and steadily improving striking. Fresh off dropping and submitting a Team Alpha Male striker, he’s hitting his stride. The biggest concern is can he pay off his price tag? He’s going to need a dominate, wrestle-heavy approach or a very early finish. I’m not confident if an early finish is going to happen here with a guy like Guida.

Kennedy Nzechukwu 9.4k vs. Lukasz Brzeski 6.8k

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Lukasz Brzeski feels like a mismatch despite the shuffle in opponents. Kennedy’s size, power, and solid takedown defense make him a tough out, even if his slow starts occasionally get him into trouble. Lukasz brings speed, athleticism, and some flashy moves, but his shaky defense and questionable chin are glaring weaknesses. Unless Kennedy lets Brzeski overwhelm him early, he should take over with his physicality and finishing ability. 

Good luck, everybody! I hope you enjoy this card. Let’s get it!

12/07 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

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