FREE 02/01 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

The UFC Saudi Arabia card tomorrow morning brings plenty of intrigue for DFS players, with 22 fighters to consider and an average salary of $8,100. Ownership trends show 15 fighters projected at 20% or higher, making leverage opportunities key for GPPs. With 12 strong value plays capable of hitting 8x+ value and scoring over 80 points, there’s room to build balanced or stars-and-scrubs lineups depending on your approach. Notably, Israel Adesanya finds himself in his first non-title fight since 2019 against Nassourdine Imavov—a matchup that could go the distance and provide solid scoring potential on both sides given their striking volume and grappling dynamics. Meanwhile, heavyweights Sergei Pavlovich and Jairzinho Rozenstruik present classic boom-or-bust potential, with Pavlovich’s early power likely drawing high ownership at $9,100.

Pricing is tight across the slate, but there are a few spots to exploit. Fighters like Imavov ($7,900) offer leverage against popular picks like Adesanya due to his grappling upside and recent form. Similarly, mid-range options such as Jasmine Jasudavicius ($8,400) bring steady scoring potential through takedowns and control time in a division where finishes are rare. Be mindful of ownership when targeting chalky fighters like Shara Magomedov ($9,200), whose aggressive style can lead to quick wins—or costly misses if his opponent survives early pressure. With several competitive matchups on tap, nailing value plays while avoiding high-risk traps will be critical to success. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Terrance McKinney (-425) ($9,200)

Terrance McKinney ($9,200) is one of the most volatile yet enticing DFS options on this card. With a projection of 109.5 DraftKings points and an optimal lineup percentage of 43.5%, McKinney’s aggressive, finish-heavy style gives him tremendous upside. His -425 betting odds reflect his likelihood to secure a victory, and his early-round explosiveness makes him especially valuable in tournaments where quick finishes translate to massive scoring potential. That said, his defensive liabilities—five of his seven career losses have come by knockout—mean there’s always some risk attached to rostering him, even as the favorite.

At nearly 60% projected ownership, McKinney is chalky, but the high ownership feels warranted given his ceiling at this price point. His ability to end fights quickly often leads to optimal lineup appearances (43.5%), and his value rating (11.9x) is among the best on the slate. While there’s no question he’ll be heavily rostered in both cash games and tournaments, fading him entirely could be dangerous given how dominant he can be when things go his way. If you’re playing large-field GPPs, consider pairing McKinney with contrarian plays elsewhere to differentiate your lineup while still capitalizing on his upside.

Other Premium Options

• Sergei Pavlovich ($9,100, Proj: 102.8, Own: 45.7%, Odds: -320)
• Muhammad Naimov ($9,000, Proj: 92.2, Own: 29.3%, Odds: -290)
• Shamil Gaziev ($9,300, Proj: 94.1, Own: 29.3%, Odds: -380)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play: Hamdy Abdelwahab (-110) ($8,000)

Hamdy Abdelwahab ($8,000) offers intriguing value in DFS this week, particularly in tournaments. With a projection of 86 DraftKings points and an impressive 10.75x value, he’s ranked as the top tournament option on the slate. His optimal lineup percentage of 44.5% underscores his strong potential to deliver at this price point. While Abdelwahab has yet to officially record a UFC win due to his prior no-contest, his power-heavy style and ability to end fights early provide the kind of upside you want in GPPs. The betting odds (-110) suggest a close fight against Jamal Pogues, but Pogues’ lackluster performances in past bouts leave the door open for Abdelwahab to capitalize with a finish.

At 33.9% projected ownership, Abdelwahab will be moderately chalky but not prohibitively so in larger-field tournaments. His combination of high upside and affordability makes him a justifiable play despite the ownership being slightly above average for the slate (26.1%). However, it’s worth noting that his limited UFC experience and recent layoff following a suspension introduce some risk into the equation. If you’re comfortable embracing that volatility, Abdelwahab’s ceiling makes him one of the most appealing mid-range options for DFS contests this week.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Mike Davis ($8,400, Proj: 85.9, Own: 30.7%, Odds: -140)
• Israel Adesanya ($8,600, Proj: 89.1, Own: 32.2%, Odds: -175)
• Bogdan Grad ($8,300, Proj: 84.8, Own: 26.4%, Odds: -115)

Value Tier ($7,500-$7,999)

Top Play: Vinicius Oliveira (+155) ($7,500)

Vinicius Oliveira ($7,500) offers intriguing value for DFS lineups this week, particularly in tournaments. His projected 79.5 DraftKings points and a value of 10.6x make him a standout option in the lower salary range, especially given his 35.1% optimal lineup rate. Oliveira’s recent performances highlight his well-rounded skill set—he showcased sharp striking and strong takedown defense in his unanimous decision win over Ricky Simon, where he neutralized a proven wrestler and kept the fight in his comfort zone. Against Said Nurmagomedov, Oliveira’s creativity on the feet could shine again if he can keep it standing and avoid extended grappling exchanges.

At 33% projected ownership, Oliveira is moderately chalky but not overly so for a fighter with this much upside at $7,500. While his +155 betting odds suggest he’s an underdog, those odds don’t fully account for his potential to score big through volume striking and durability over three rounds. His ability to stay active on the feet gives him a solid floor for cash games, while his finishing upside—evidenced by recent highlight-reel moments—makes him appealing for tournaments as well. If you’re looking for mid-tier salary relief with legitimate scoring potential, Oliveira fits the bill nicely.

Other Value Options

• Nassourdine Imavov ($7,600, Proj: 79.7, Own: 40.1%, Odds: +145)
• Lucas Alexander ($7,900, Proj: 81.5, Own: 27.1%, Odds: -105)
• Fares Ziam ($7,800, Proj: 75.2, Own: 20.7%, Odds: +120)

Bargain Tier (Under $7,500)

Top Play: Michael Page (+160) ($7,400)

Michael Page ($7,400) offers intriguing tournament potential at his price point, especially considering his ability to generate points through striking volume and damage. Despite coming off a narrow decision loss to Ian Garry, Page showcased his speed and precision on the feet, which could play a significant role against Shara Magomedov. With a six-inch reach advantage and a dynamic striking arsenal, Page has clear upside in this matchup if he can keep the fight standing. His projected 70.5 DraftKings points and solid 9.53x value make him an appealing underdog option, particularly for GPPs where his finishing potential could elevate him into optimal lineups.

At 19.9% projected ownership, Page sits just below field average, offering moderate leverage in tournaments without being overly contrarian. His 23.5% Optimal Lineup rate underscores his viability as a value play with realistic paths to victory despite the +160 betting odds. However, his defensive grappling remains a concern against an undefeated opponent like Magomedov, who may look to exploit that weakness if the fight hits the mat. Ultimately, Page’s ceiling is tied to whether he can dictate the range and avoid extended grappling exchanges. He’s best suited for tournaments where you’re chasing upside rather than cash games that require more stability.

Other Bargain Options

• Mayra Bueno Silva ($7,300, Proj: 71.3, Own: 18.0%, Odds: +185)
• Thomas Petersen ($6,900, Proj: 68.6, Own: 14.1%, Odds: +280)
• Jairzinho Rozenstruik ($7,100, Proj: 68.1, Own: 9.7%, Odds: +250)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!