Mixed martial arts' largest promotion makes its much-hyped debut at the Sphere in Las Vegas. UFC 306, dubbed Noche UFC, promises a visual spectacle honoring Mexican Independence Day weekend and two title fights atop Saturday's card.

UFC bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley meets top contender Merab Dvalishvili in a modern-day striker vs. grappler matchup. O'Malley defeated Dvalishvil's close friend Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 to become champ, paving the way for Dvalishvili to challenge for the title and avenge his teammate.

The co-main event sees Mexico's Alexa Grasso defend her women's flyweight title in a third consecutive fight against arguably the best women's 125-pound fighter in history, Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso leads the series 1-0-1 following their most recent bout at Noche UFC last year, where a controversial 10-8 score for Grasso led to a split draw.

Raul Rosas Jr. 69% Finish Line; 32% First Round Finish; 87% Win Probability

Manuel Torres 40% Finish Line; 23% First Round Finish; 57% Win Probability

Sean O’Malley 37% Finish Line; 14% First Round Finish; 56% Win Probability

Ronaldo Rodriguez 36% Finish Line; 18% First Round Finish; 60% Win Probability

Ignacio Bahamondes 35% Finish Line; 18% First Round Finish; 43% Win Probability

Diego Lopes 34% Finish Line; 18% First Round Finish; 64% Win Probability

Brian Ortega 7.5k (Not sure I get here in 20 max)

Full disclosure before I get into the Main Event. I have been a Sean O’Malley fan for a minute. When he was coming up, he was a lock button-type of fighter for so long. Aside from Dricus Du Plessis, I don’t think any single athlete has won me more money. He’s just got that “it” factor you don’t see everyday. I love his swagger, the cold shit talking, and he’s even pretty articulate for a fighter. But I get it, as my wife has pointed out, he looks like a meth head, trailer park dweller (nothing wrong with that), and joker clone. So, just take all that into account as you process this information. 

The Main Event will be a banger and whoever wins will score very well I would guess. Sean O’Malley is a pin-point, precise striker who throws at a high volume. He’s tall (5’11’’) with a 72 in reach for the 135 lb division. He has better than expected take-down defense and will make grapplers pay if they shoot takedowns carelessly. We saw this in his matchup against Merab’s training partner in Aljamain Sterling. It’s always dangerous to try to do MMA math like that, but it seems like there are a lot of similarities. Personally, I think the outcome will probably be the same and the vast majority of the MMA community is in agreement with this perspective. But the reality is Merab is relentless, non-stopped wrestler who will not quit unless he is KO’d. He could shoot 50 plus takedowns. If he has any success in controlling the tempo of the fight, it could slow down O’Malley’s striking and make for a slow, boring, and low scoring fight for Sean. If Merab is successful and finds a way to get the win, he will put up massive points in relation to his price point (or regardless of his price point for that manner). I will be heavier on the O’Malley side for the reasons I mentioned, but I will have some exposure to Merab for his upside.

In the co-main event, we have a classic trilogy fight. Grasso took the title in their first matchup with a somewhat surprising rear-naked choke after catching Valentina’s leg after a kick. Prior to that moment, Valentina was winning pretty clearly. In the rematch, it appeared Valentina was winning, but it turned out to be a draw with very questionable scoring in the 3rd round. Alexa showed well in the second fight and it seemed she was ascending. The skill gap seemed to be closing and the confidence factor was shifting. It apppears like a possible changing of the guard situation…but my initial pick was Valentina in that she really has performed better in both of the last two fights aside from some strange moments. But this is setup for Grasso, as the Mexican fighter, so I lean that way with admitted hesitancy. Pick or side here or try to find the balance in exposure.

I’ll get right to it. I like Lopes here, but this should be a banger. Lopes is very good all around and has the excessive confidence to rock one of the most questionable mullet variations I have ever seen. I wouldn’t say that Diego is an overly proven fighter, so I don’t blame you if you’re on the Ortega side, as many in the community like him here. Ortega is a master of surviving incredible beatings before finding a way to get a win. He has big hands, even when hurt, and just exhibits a tremendous fighting spirit in general. Ortega is also aging and pulled out of the last fight on the day of the fight. I don’t blame you at all if you like Ortega, but I’m pretty heavy on Lopes here.

I feel like the odds should be close to a pick ‘em in this bout, but Vegas has Zellhuber as an almost 3-to-1 favorite. It makes some sense because Zellhuber was impressive in his last outing and he is an impressive striker. Zellhuber does not traditionally score well on DK with the following scores: 78; 85; 76; and 21. Ribovics is very good all around. This will be a close matchup, and I think Ribovics as a good chance to pull it out. Ribovics does score well in general with scores of: 127; 92; and 49 in a 3rd round loss to Radzhabov. Ribovics has more paths to the victory and is a straight dawg. 

This is an interesting matchup in that it seems like Ronaldo is being setup for a win on Mexico’s Independence Day; however, he is very unproven with only one win against a cut UFC fighter. He is facing what is probably mostly a mid fighter in Ode Osbourne, who has only scored over 6 DK points in two of his six fights. Those scores were 70 and 103 as a heavy favorite in his debut with the UFC. Rondaldo has a lot of hype behind his name mostly based on his debut against Bondar in February. I’ll play Ronaldo, but with some level of caution, based on what I just outlined.

Vegas has had this fight as basically a pick ‘em since it opened; however, Norma Dumont is priced at as the dog on DK at 7.8k. She tends to score well with scores with the following scores in her fights: 90.1; 90.1; 63.4; 92.2; 27.6; 73.8; 68.6; 102.8; and 13.0. Irene Aldina is good technical striker and has some decent power in her hands. I think Dumont can control the pace and the fight. This will help her to stay safe and hopefully get the win. She is big and strong and has a real chance here as a dog.

Torres is a good fighter with great kicks to the legs. He is long and will use distance to his advantage. But he’s not the longer, taller fighter in this case. In that way, Torres will be in a position is hasn’t been in many times. Bahamondes is a scary finisher who looked amazing in his last fight. I think he can use his length and technical skills to get the win here. I’ll be taking a shot on him in this small card with limited great underdogs.

Yazmin is a heavy favorite here who has dominated most of her opponents so far in the UFC. But she did get straight up chinned by Gomes in 2023. In her first four fights, she has scored poorly in wins outside of a well-timed 2nd round KO where she put up a massive 129 DK points. In her other wins she has put up 65 and 68 points. Souza is a come forward striker who has power in her hands. It’s not crazy to imagine she puts her out in a big way, but I think it’s a long shot. I’m probably fading both of them in 20 max, but do so at your own peril. Yazmin is a GPP pivot.

I like Josh Van, but you never know what you’re going to get from him. He’s a good striker, but he was chinned by Charles Johnson in the 3rd round of his last fight. Johnson does not have much power, historically, so it’s a bit concerning. Edgar Chairez is a well round fighter. The biggest concern with him is his head movement, which seems close to nonexistent. This gives some hope for Van to put up a massive score if he can put it on Chairez. Chairez is live if he can make something happen during a beat down…but I’m probably not going to get there. I have not problem if you end up getting there, though. It makes sense. I’m torn on Van. I’ll probably have some exposure, but I’m not making a big effort to get there if it doesn’t come from the data in the optimizer. 

Rosas is a non-stopped wrestler who scores very well, even when things aren’t ideal in his fights, on DK. He’s juiced as balls based on Vegas odds, but he’ll probably win and score well. It’s another episode of “can he pay off his salary.” You make the call there. I don’t know about optimal for the bigger tournaments, but he’s probably a good play for your smaller field stuff or probably even 20 max with some pretty limited great options this week. The dogs aren’t pretty and the 9k guys are kind of cringe, to be honest. This will be an interesting one. His match-up is great and I’m not playing Aoriqileng at all. I’m not even going to give a disclaimer here, you guys (and DFSgirl) know the drill.

Good luck, everybody! I look forward to talking about strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord. Let’s get it!

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