On Saturday night, the UFC returns to Paris for the third consecutive September, presenting a card packed with both rising and well-known fighters from the host country in crucial matchups.

The main event, a guaranteed thriller in the lightweight division between Renato Moicano and Benoît Saint Denis, promises an action-filled evening at the Accor Arena. Moicano, unbeaten at lightweight with five wins in his last six fights, looks to break into the Top 10 after an impressive run, including a recent finish over Jalin Turner. Saint Denis, coming off a loss to Dustin Poirier, is eager to bounce back in his third consecutive appearance in Paris. Both fighters are known for their aggressive, finish-seeking styles, making this matchup a potential Fight of the Night to cap off an action-packed evening.Rising middleweights Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen will square off in the co-main event this weekend in Paris. Imavov, riding a two-fight win streak, comes back to Paris after securing an emotional majority decision over Roman Dolidze in February and a fourth-round stoppage of Jared Cannonier in June. The 29-year-old Russian boasts a 6-2 record with one no contest in his nine UFC outings, and a victory on Saturday could solidify his standing in the title contention race.We can expect not only sick fights but also the outcomes that will shape the future for several up-and-coming fighters and influence the trajectory of key divisions.

Benoit Saint Denis 59% Finish Line; 24% First Round Finish; 72% Win Probability

Morgan Charriere 58% Finish Line; 25% First Round Finish; 84%% Win Probability

Ludovit Klein 57% Finish Line; 28% First Round Finish; 87% Win Probability

Oumar Sy 52% Finish Line; 26% First Round Finish; 83% Win Probability

Joanderson Brito 45% Finish Line; 20% First Round Finish; 74% Win Probability

Bolaji Oki 42% Finish Line; 21% First Round Finish; 63% Win Probability

Ion Cutelaba 41% Finish Line; 23% First Round Finish; 49% Win Probability

This card is a bit challenging in that I like many of the heavy favorites, including: Saint Denis, Brito, Charriere, Sy, Klein, and Perez. Luckily, it’s a 14-fight card, so there are options to choose from at both the mid and value tiers. Of the mid tier, my favorites are Battle, Frevola, and Cutelaba. While I don’t love any of the dogs as much as I sometimes do, there are some live options with Frevola, Allen, Moicano, Miranda, Duncan, and playing both sides with Jousset. Check out the fight analysis below for more details. 

Benoit Saint Denis (9k) vs. Renato Moicano (7.2k)

As we all know, Saint Denis landed an amazing opportunity against legend Dustin Poirier in his last bout. He smoked Dustin during the first five minutes before gassing hard in the second round and getting finished by Poirier. Before the fight, the UFC rumor mill suggested BSD had a staph infection; Benoit came out later confirming he was on antibiotics to treat his staph, which is known to drain your cardio. If you believe all of that, you should probably slam BSD…and that’s my inclination. BSD puts up some big boy scores in his wins with scores above 100 DK points in 5-7 fights. In his best wins, he dropped slate nukes with 135.5 and 149.4. I might just embrace the risk and jam the BSD play. But, you have to respect Moicano’s skill set. He is a tough mfer with a well-rounded skill set. Recently, he has beat some very good fighters with wins over Jalen Turner and Drew Dober in his last two. I don’t think either of these guys are as good as BSD, yet you have to respect what he has done as a dog, especially in his last fight. 

Nassourdine Imavov (8.9k) vs. Brendan Allen (7.3k)

This is a very interesting fight both from a DFS perspective. The odds seem very wide for this match up. Imavov started out as a -175 favorite and the odds continued to move in his favor up to -205 or so currently. Imavov’s signature wins have been against Shahbazyan, Dolidze, and Cannonier. So, nothing crazy as far as being tested. Allen has looked good recently, winning his last seven fights, including wins against Bruno Silva (sub), Paul Craig (sub), and Chris Curits (Dec). Imavov will probably struggle to pay off his price tag; in his nine fights, he has surpassed 100 DK points in one fight. In all fairness, he has scored 94.1, 98.3, and 89.7 in his next best DK performances. With that said, I probably won’t have much Imavov because I don’t see as much upside in this closer matchup. Obviously, anything can happen, but that’s where I’m at now. I will have more exposure to Allen based on his price point and potential in a win. In his top-scoring wins, he has obtained scores of 110.7, 107.3, 118.5, and 119. With all that said, keep in mind Allen has Vegas win probability of 36%.

Joanderson Brito (9.2k) vs. William Gomis (7k)

I think Brito wins this fight and probably pretty clearly. He has won his last five bouts and has only lost his debut in the UFC. His scoring has been strong with scores over 100 DK in all but one of his wins. In his solo UFC lost, he faced a man in Algeo that stayed right in his face and provided heavy forward pressure. Gomis is a counter striker that does not put pressure on his opponents. I’m pretty confident in a Brito win. He could probably be in the cores, to be honest. I don’t know if I can get to Gomis in 20 max personally. 

Bryan Battle (8.5k) vs. Kevin Jousett (7.7k)

Have any of you seen Bryan Battle’s first UFC fight? The dude was a heavy weight and got brutally knocked out by another fatass with a flush head kick. After that loss, Battle apparently changed his life and subsequently lost a massive amount of weight. Since that switch flipped in his mind, he has been an absolute monster. I’m not picking against him until he facing a top level talent or shows that he’s not what I think he is… BUT, Kevin Jousset is a very good striker. He has won both his first two fights in the UFC, scoring 110 and 96. He’s going to be fighting in his home country. I’m playing both sides of this one although my initial thought was to slam exposure to Battle shares and parlay the hell out of him. Battle has looked great in his recent fights.

Morgan Charriere (9.5k) vs. Gabriel Miranda (6.7k)

Charriere is an explosive striker with a strong all-round fight game. He is 1-1 in the UFC, although he is 19-10 in his professional fighting career. The odds are probably a bit juiced. Miranda is a good fighter and a great grappler. While Charriere has strong take down defense, Miranda is a specialist who I think gets at least one take down. If he can do that, Miranda will be very live. Charriere looked very good against Chepe Mariscal, who has shown he is a very good fighter, in his last bout. This will be interesting. I’ll be playing both sides of this with a strong lean towards Charriere. Again, keep in mind that Vegas gives Miranda an implied 16% win probability, so I’ll be measured in taking that into account.

This is the main card opener. This is a clash of styles. Ziam likes to stay outside and engages when he sees an opportunity. He is patient and will wait for his shoots. He is technical and disciplined. Frevola is the opposite in that he is a come-forward striker and just don’t stop until he is stopped. I feel like it’s a great spot for Frevola, but this is a close fight. I will be heavy on Frevola on DK, but won’t go apeshit on exposure. I don’t know if I will get to Ziam, too much, although it’s possible he could score well based on the fight style of Frevola. 

Ion Cutelaba (8.3k) vs. Ivan Erslan (7.9k)

Ion is fight finisher with one-punch power. He is also chiny AF. One of these guys is probably getting knocked out. I lean towards Cutelaba but I can’t trust him for shit. I think having some exposure to both sides makes sense. 

Oumar Sy is going to destroy Jung here. He is 10-0 in his professional career and 1-0 in the UFC. He is good all around and will wrestle, which scores so well on DK. This seems setup for Sy to give him a highlight win. Jung is live in a sense due to his power, but I’m not getting there, probably. 

Ludovit Klein (9.6k) vs. Roosevelt Roberts (6.6k)

I’ll just keep this simple. Klein will win. Vegas gives him an implied 87% win probability with a 57% finish probability. It’s just a game of can you pay off your price tag. His scores on DK historically are: 103.7, 45.2, 18.2, 70.0, 76.0, 40.8, 86.0, 135.4, and 89. He’s a such a good position for a KO here, it’s tempting; however, his scores are amazing if he doesn’t get a very early finish. So, obviously, that’s the choice you have to make here with his top-of-card price tag. 

Taylor Lapilus (9.3k) vs. Vince Morales (6.9k)

Lapilus should be the better fight here. He is technical in his approach and wants to stay on the outside to pick his opponent apart. He has good takedown defense although grappling is probably the path to victory for his opponent. Morales is a previously cut UFC fighter that made his way back to the big show. Morales is not a bum and he can be very dangerous. He could win this but I’m probably not betting on it. The most likely scenario is Lapilus stays safe and keeps this reeeeal boring. If Morales chinned him, I wouldn’t be shocked…

Ailin Perez (9.1k) vs. Darya Zheleznyakova (7.1k)

I feel pretty confident Perez wins here, which isn’t going out on a limb at all, with a 68% implied win probability. Ailin seems like she is continuing to improve with each fight. She scores pretty well on DK with the following scores during her career: 19.2, 138.3, 88.5, and 109.7. This is a clash of styles fight. Darya wants to stand and strike…Ailin will try to chain wrestle, which she will probably do. I’m not getting to Darya in 20 max or SE for sure.

Victor Altamirano (7.8k) vs. Daniel Barez (8.4k)

This is a very close fight. The odds have shifted over the last two weeks or so. Barez is probably the better striker. Victor is tough and has been through some battles. Altamirano could absolutely win. I’ll probably lean towards the dog here, although I’m not taking a huge stand on this fight.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti (8.7k) vs. Nora Cornolle (7.5k)

Cavalcanti is stepping up on short notice here after a questionable win in her last bout. Cornolle will have the home advantage, which has bode well in the past. But Jackie seems like the better fighter. Cavalanti does not do as well backing up as she does moving forward. Nora will move forward and put the pressure on her. This is a rematch from three plus years ago when Jackie won the first fight before either was in the UFC. I think Cavalcanti gets the job done again, but I’m not going out of my way to get exposure to either fighter. Nora scored 73.9 in a decision in her first fight and 105.1 in a 2nd round KO in her most recent fight against Mullins. Cavalcanti has scored 80.8 and 66.4 her first two wins (and fights) in the UFC. Honestly, I’m probably fading Jackie at her price point and considering Nora as a dog. 

Bolaji Oki (8.8k) vs. Chris Duncan (7.4k)

As I have said several times already, it seems like these odds are a bit wider than I would expect. I could definitely see Chris Duncan having some success. Duncan can take massive damage and continue forward as if nothing happened. Oki can be overly patient waiting for his opportunity, even to the point he could lose rounds and time. If Duncan can work the legs, things could get interesting if Oki tries to wait back for his shots. I’ll likely get some exposure to Duncan.

Good luck, everybody! I look forward to talking about strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord. Let’s get it!

9/28 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

This article is for subscribers

DaveVR