FREE 03/08 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a strong 7-game NBA slate tonight, and while you can stack every Raptor in your lineup, there’s plenty more to break down from a DFS perspective. Two games immediately jump off the page with massive totals: IND at ATL (246.0) and DET at GSW (238.0). Both matchups feature fast-paced teams and weak defenses, creating ideal environments for stacking. With the first game tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and the last one starting at 8:30 PM ET, there’s not much late-night action, but that Warriors game could still provide some interesting late swap opportunities depending on how your early plays pan out.

The rest of the slate has a mix of slower-paced matchups and middling totals, so targeting the right spots will be key. Prioritizing players in those high-total games makes sense, but don’t sleep on value plays in less flashy contests if they open up strong usage or minutes projections. It feels like one of those slates where being selective about game environments could make all the difference, so keep an eye on how ownership shakes out as lock approaches.

Game Environment Analysis

NOP @ HOU (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: NOP (12th) vs HOU (19th)
• Off Eff: NOP (24th) vs HOU (21st)
• Def Eff: NOP (28th) 🎯 vs HOU (3rd)

IND @ ATL (O/U: 246.0, Spread: 3.5)

• Pace: IND (10th) vs ATL (2nd)
• Off Eff: IND (7th) 🔥 vs ATL (18th)
• Def Eff: IND (16th) vs ATL (20th)

WAS @ TOR (O/U: 226.0, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs TOR (14th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs TOR (26th)
• Def Eff: WAS (29th) 🎯 vs TOR (24th)

CHI @ MIA (O/U: 224.5, Spread: -5.0)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs MIA (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (17th) vs MIA (19th)
• Def Eff: CHI (25th) 🎯 vs MIA (13th)

ORL @ MIL (O/U: 215.0, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: ORL (28th) vs MIL (7th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ORL (28th) vs MIL (12th)
• Def Eff: ORL (2nd) vs MIL (10th)

LAL @ BOS (O/U: 226.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: LAL (22nd) vs BOS (26th)
• Off Eff: LAL (10th) vs BOS (3rd)
• Def Eff: LAL (12th) vs BOS (5th)

DET @ GSW (O/U: 238.0, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: DET (9th) vs GSW (15th)
• Off Eff: DET (14th) vs GSW (15th)
• Def Eff: DET (11th) vs GSW (8th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jamal Shead ($3,500)

Jamal Shead stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $3,500. Projected for 24.2 DraftKings points and a strong 6.9x value, he offers plenty of upside in a matchup against Washington. With a Boom% of 33.4% and appearing in 28.1% of optimal lineups, Shead is well-positioned to exceed his salary-based expectations. While his 0.83 FPPM isn’t elite, his projected 29 minutes should give him enough opportunities to contribute across multiple categories, especially against a Wizards defense that struggles to contain opposing guards.

The main concern here is ownership—Shead is expected to be rostered by 21.8% of the field, which makes him one of the chalkier value options tonight. That said, it’s chalk that seems justified given his price point and role on a Raptors team desperate for production from its backcourt. While his recent performances have been inconsistent, Shead has flashed upside in games where he gets extended run, such as his 25 DK-point outing on March 2nd. At this salary, even hitting his floor won’t crush your lineup, making him a solid option in both cash games and tournaments despite the elevated ownership.

More PG Plays:

• Scottie Barnes ($7,700)
• Tyler Herro ($8,700)
• Amen Thompson ($8,700)

SG - RJ Barrett ($7,100)

RJ Barrett is in a fantastic spot tonight at $7,100 against the Wizards. Washington has been one of the league’s worst defensive teams this season, particularly against wings, and Barrett’s 1.25 FPPM reflects his ability to take advantage of favorable matchups. Projected for 41.3 DK points and offering nearly 6x value, he’s one of the slate’s strongest mid-range plays. His recent performances have been solid, averaging over 37 DK points across his last four games while contributing across all categories. With a projected 33 minutes and no injury concerns after resting Friday, Barrett should see plenty of opportunity to hit his ceiling in this matchup.

The main concern here is ownership—Barrett is projected to be rostered by 38.4% of the field, making him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. However, given his strong projection (2nd in tournament rank) and appearance in nearly 25% of optimal lineups, it’s chalk that looks justified. In tournaments, you’ll want some differentiation elsewhere if you roster him heavily, but fading him entirely seems risky given his boom potential (34.2%) and consistency in high-usage situations. This is a spot where eating the chalk makes sense due to both matchup and value.

More SG Plays:

• Tyler Herro ($8,700)
• Dyson Daniels ($6,900)
• Jalen Green ($7,300)

SF - Amen Thompson ($8,700)

Amen Thompson ($8,700) stands out as an intriguing DFS option tonight against the Pelicans. With a projected 39 minutes and a solid 1.11 FPPM, he’s positioned to deliver strong value at nearly 5x his salary. Thompson has been a consistent double-double threat recently, averaging 16 points and 10.2 rebounds over his last six games while shooting an efficient 58.1% from the field. The matchup against New Orleans isn’t overly imposing, and with Houston likely leaning on him for heavy minutes in what could be a competitive game, there’s a clear path to him hitting or exceeding his projection of 43.4 DK points.

At just 7.6% projected ownership, Thompson offers moderate leverage in tournaments given his top-10 GPP rank (7th) and 19.2% optimal lineup appearance rate. While his free-throw struggles are a minor concern, his ability to contribute across multiple categories mitigates that risk in DFS scoring formats. If you’re looking for a mid-range play with upside and manageable ownership, Thompson is worth serious consideration tonight—especially if you’re targeting game environments with high usage opportunities for versatile players like him.

More SF Plays:

• Scottie Barnes ($7,700)
• Jayson Tatum ($10,200)
• Franz Wagner ($8,600)

PF - Tari Eason ($5,600)

Tari Eason is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing plays on tonight’s slate at $5,600. His 1.03 FPPM paired with a projected 31 minutes makes him a strong value at 5.7x, and his recent move back into the starting lineup has only bolstered his production. Over his last three games, he’s averaged 35 DK points while showcasing his ability to rack up defensive stats (five steals in his last outing). The matchup against New Orleans is solid as well—while the Pelicans are middle-of-the-pack defensively, their frontcourt rotation lacks consistency, giving Eason opportunities to exploit mismatches.

The elephant in the room is his massive 42.6% projected ownership, making him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. However, this feels like justified chalk given his strong value and tournament rank (2nd overall). With a 25.6% Boom Rate and appearing in nearly 16% of optimal lineups, fading Eason could be risky unless you have a compelling pivot in mind. If you’re playing cash games or single-entry contests, he’s tough to ignore given his floor and ceiling combination at this price point. In GPPs, you’ll need to decide if eating the chalk fits your build or if differentiating elsewhere is a better strategy.

More PF Plays:

• Pascal Siakam ($7,900)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200)
• Bam Adebayo ($9,300)

C - Draymond Green ($5,900)

Draymond Green is in a fantastic spot tonight at just $5,900, offering strong value at 5.67x with a projection of 33.43 DK points. His ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him an appealing option, especially against a Detroit team that ranks near the bottom of the league defensively and struggles to contain versatile bigs. Over his last five games, Green has averaged nearly 34 minutes per contest and has consistently delivered solid fantasy outputs, including a 48-point DK performance just three games ago. With a 1.04 FPPM rate and a Boom% of 27.13%, he’s well-positioned to exceed value in this matchup while maintaining a high floor due to his all-around game.

At 16.5% projected ownership, Green will be one of the more popular plays on the slate, but it’s chalk that seems justified given his price point and role in Golden State’s offense. He appears in over 20% of optimal lineups, which signals both safety and upside for GPP contests. The Warriors will need his playmaking and defensive versatility against Detroit’s frontcourt, and with projected minutes around 32, there’s little risk of him underperforming relative to his salary. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in tournaments or need stability in cash games, Draymond is one of the better mid-range options available tonight.

More C Plays:

• Jakob Poeltl ($5,600)
• Alperen Sengun ($9,500)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!