FREE 04/07 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 2-game NBA slate might be small, but there’s still plenty to dig into for DFS. The first game, Sacramento at Detroit (7:00 PM ET), carries the highest total on the board at 230.0, making it a clear standout for targeting fast-paced action and potential fantasy upside. On the other hand, Philadelphia at Miami (7:30 PM ET) comes in with a much lower total of 213.0, so it’ll be interesting to see how the field approaches that slower-paced matchup.

With just two games, ownership will naturally condense, so finding ways to differentiate your lineup without sacrificing too much upside is key. Prioritizing exposure to the SAC-DET game feels like the obvious move given its pace and scoring potential, but don’t overlook opportunities in PHI-MIA if you’re willing to embrace a more contrarian approach. As always with smaller slates, nailing your core plays while being strategic about value is going to make all the difference.

Game Environment Analysis

SAC @ DET (O/U: 230.0, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: SAC (19th) vs DET (5th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAC (9th) vs DET (17th)
• Def Eff: SAC (23rd) vs DET (9th)

PHI @ MIA (O/U: 213.0, Spread: -13.0)

• Pace: PHI (24th) vs MIA (29th)
• Off Eff: PHI (22nd) vs MIA (21st)
• Def Eff: PHI (26th) 🎯 vs MIA (12th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jared Butler ($5,700)

Jared Butler comes in at $5,700 tonight and is shaping up to be one of the most popular plays on the slate with a projected ownership of 52.9%. While the high ownership might give some pause, it’s hard to argue against his value. Butler has been thriving in an expanded role for Philadelphia, averaging 30+ minutes over his last few games and consistently returning strong production. His 0.9 FPPM isn’t eye-popping, but his ability to contribute across multiple categories—like his near double-double against Minnesota—keeps his floor solid while giving him some ceiling potential in the right game environment. With a 4.73x value projection and appearing in over 37% of optimal lineups, he’s clearly priced well for what he offers.

The matchup against Miami isn’t ideal given their slower pace and defensive discipline, but Butler has shown he can produce even in tough spots, as evidenced by his recent 41 DK-point performance against this same Heat team on March 29th. His ability to rack up assists (5.6 per game over his last 15 starts) gives him a stable foundation, and if his shot falls like it did in that prior meeting (7-for-12 FG, 4-for-4 from deep), he could easily outperform expectations again. While the chalkiness is significant, Butler’s combination of minutes, opportunity, and price point makes him difficult to fade entirely in this spot.

More PG Plays:

• Tyler Herro ($9,000)
• Cade Cunningham ($10,500)

SG - Lonnie Walker IV ($5,200)

Lonnie Walker IV comes in at a reasonable $5,200 price tag and projects as one of the better value plays on the slate. With a projection of 25.05 DK points and an optimal lineup appearance rate of 40.12%, Walker stands out as a strong mid-range option. His recent minutes have been encouraging, logging 30+ minutes in three of his last five games, including a 38-minute outing against Minnesota where he posted 32.8 DK points. While his per-minute production (0.84 FPPM) isn’t elite, the volume is there, and his ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him a safe play with upside if his shot falls. The matchup against Miami isn’t ideal given their slower pace and defensive strength, but at this salary, Walker doesn’t need to do much to pay off.

Ownership is where things get interesting with Walker. At 43.5%, he’s projected to be one of the most popular players on the slate, which means you’ll need to decide if you’re comfortable eating that chalk or pivoting elsewhere in tournaments. Given his strong value metrics (4.82x value), it’s not hard to see why he’s drawing so much attention—he fits builds easily without sacrificing upside elsewhere in your lineup. However, if you’re looking for leverage in GPPs, fading him could make sense given Miami’s ability to limit opposing wings and the possibility of a ceiling game being capped by matchup constraints. Ultimately, Walker is a solid cash play but requires some thought in tournament formats depending on your risk tolerance.

More SG Plays:

• Keon Ellis ($4,300)
• Quentin Grimes ($8,800)

SF - Andrew Wiggins ($6,900)

Andrew Wiggins ($6,900) stands out as a strong mid-range option on tonight’s slate, especially given his 42.3% optimal lineup rate and solid 4.9x value projection against the Sixers. His 1.13 FPPM suggests he can deliver steady production in his expected 30 minutes of action, and while Philadelphia is a tough defensive matchup overall, they’re more vulnerable on the wings than in the paint. Wiggins has shown a reliable ceiling recently, with games like his 61.3 DK-point explosion against Charlotte reminding us of what he can do when his shot is falling. His moderate ownership at nearly 40% is higher than the field average but makes sense given his price point and role.

That said, Wiggins does come with some risk. He’s been dealing with a hamstring issue that could limit him if he suits up, so keep an eye on news closer to lock. Additionally, consistency hasn’t always been his strength—he’s had games under 30 DK points even in favorable matchups—so there’s volatility here despite his high tournament rank (1st). If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in this price range, Wiggins offers both safety and upside for cash games or GPPs, but fading him could provide leverage if you think the field overcommits given his recent inconsistency and health concerns.

More SF Plays:

• DeMar DeRozan ($8,300)
• Justin Edwards ($5,400)

PF - Bam Adebayo ($9,200)

Bam Adebayo is in a solid spot tonight against the 76ers, even with his $9,200 price tag. While Philly’s defense can be tough, they’re middle of the pack against opposing bigs, and Bam’s versatility makes him a strong play. Over his last four games, he’s averaged 50.4 DK points per game, including a monster 61.5-point outing against Milwaukee in his last appearance. His consistent ability to contribute across all categories (points, rebounds, assists, and defensive stats) gives him a sturdy floor and ceiling combo that justifies his salary. With a 1.29 FPPM rate and projected for 33 minutes, he has plenty of opportunity to hit value here.

At 25% projected ownership, Bam is slightly chalky but not prohibitively so for tournaments. He appears in over 37% of optimal lineups, which indicates the field’s interest is warranted given his upside at this price point. The key will be whether Miami can keep this game competitive; if they do, Bam should see enough minutes to pay off his salary comfortably. Considering his recent production and matchup dynamics against Philly’s frontcourt, he’s a strong option for both cash games and GPPs despite the moderate ownership.

More PF Plays:

• Tobias Harris ($6,400)
• Justin Edwards ($5,400)

C - Adem Bona ($5,300)

Adem Bona stands out as one of the top value plays on tonight’s slate at just $5,300. With a projection of 29.1 DK points and a strong 5.5x value rating, he’s locked into significant minutes (30 projected) and has been productive with 0.97 FPPM. His defensive contributions—averaging 3+ blocks in five straight games—give him a solid floor, while his recent career-high scoring game against Milwaukee shows the upside he can deliver in GPPs. Facing Miami isn’t an ideal matchup, but it’s not prohibitive either, especially with his ability to rack up peripheral stats regardless of opponent.

At 55.9% projected ownership, Bona is highly chalky for tournaments, but it’s easy to see why. He appears in over 43% of optimal lineups and ranks second overall in tournament value for good reason: his combination of price, role, and consistent production is hard to ignore. While fading him could create leverage in large-field GPPs, it’s a risky move given how much he contributes across multiple stat categories. Ultimately, Bona looks like a worthwhile piece of chalk to eat tonight if you’re playing cash or single-entry contests where his high floor provides stability without sacrificing upside.

More C Plays:

• Jalen Duren ($7,300)
• Domantas Sabonis ($10,000)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!