FREE 04/09 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a solid 6-game NBA slate tonight, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with a pair of late games at 9:00 PM ET. The two standout spots for DFS are Portland at Utah (230.0 total) and Miami at Chicago (229.0 total), both offering strong game environments with higher implied scoring. Those should naturally draw attention, but how you approach them—whether stacking or pivoting—could make the difference in your lineup construction.

The rest of the slate features slower-paced matchups and lower totals, which might push some players under the radar. With fewer games overall, ownership could condense on the chalkier plays, so finding ways to differentiate in these secondary spots will be key. Late swap opportunities in the 9:00 PM games also give you some flexibility to react as news drops or adjust based on early results. It’s shaping up to be a slate where balancing exposure to the high-total games while leveraging low-owned plays elsewhere could pay off big.

Game Environment Analysis

BOS @ ORL (O/U: 207.0, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: BOS (30th) vs ORL (28th)
• Off Eff: BOS (2nd) vs ORL (27th)
• Def Eff: BOS (5th) vs ORL (2nd)

PHI @ WAS (O/U: 224.0, Spread: 2.0)

• Pace: PHI (24th) vs WAS (4th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: PHI (22nd) vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: PHI (26th) 🎯 vs WAS (28th) 🎯

CHA @ TOR (O/U: 218.5, Spread: -10.0)

• Pace: CHA (22nd) vs TOR (11th)
• Off Eff: CHA (29th) vs TOR (26th)
• Def Eff: CHA (24th) vs TOR (16th)

LAL @ DAL (O/U: 228.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: LAL (21st) vs DAL (13th)
• Off Eff: LAL (10th) 🔥 vs DAL (13th)
• Def Eff: LAL (13th) vs DAL (20th)

MIA @ CHI (O/U: 229.0, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: MIA (29th) vs CHI (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIA (21st) vs CHI (17th)
• Def Eff: MIA (12th) vs CHI (21st)

POR @ UTA (O/U: 230.0, Spread: 6.5)

• Pace: POR (17th) vs UTA (5th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: POR (23rd) vs UTA (25th)
• Def Eff: POR (17th) vs UTA (30th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Payton Pritchard ($6,700)

Payton Pritchard ($6,700) stands out as an intriguing mid-range option on tonight’s slate. Projected for 36 minutes and a solid 1.02 FPPM, Pritchard offers both opportunity and efficiency in a matchup against Orlando. The Magic rank middle of the pack defensively but struggle to contain opposing guards, which sets up well for Pritchard to deliver value at his 5.5x projection. His recent performance has been a bit volatile, but his ceiling is clear—he dropped 43.5 DK points just two games ago against Washington, showcasing his ability to contribute across multiple stat categories when given the minutes.

At 11.9% projected ownership, Pritchard isn’t sneaking under the radar, but he’s not overwhelming chalk either. This moderate ownership feels appropriate given his combination of floor and upside in this spot. With a Boom% of 28.4% and appearing in 24.3% of optimal lineups, he’s clearly grading out well for tournaments while remaining affordable enough to fit into balanced builds. If you’re looking for a mid-tier guard with potential to exceed expectations in a favorable matchup, Pritchard is worth strong consideration tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Collin Sexton ($6,200)
• Carlton Carrington ($5,800)
• Isaiah Collier ($6,400)

SG - Lonnie Walker IV ($5,700)

Lonnie Walker IV is shaping up as one of the strongest mid-range plays on tonight’s slate at $5,700. Projected for 33.3 DK points and carrying a solid 5.84x value, he’s been thriving in an expanded role for the Sixers, averaging 34 minutes over his last five games. His recent performances show consistency, with three games of 32+ DK points in that span, including a 35.3-point outing against Miami where he dropped 29 real-life points on efficient shooting (10-for-18 FG). The matchup against Washington is appealing, as they’ve struggled defensively all season and rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. Walker’s near 1.0 FPPM production combined with his elevated usage makes him a strong candidate to exceed value in this spot.

The biggest concern here is ownership, as Walker is projected to be rostered by nearly 30% of the field. While that level of chalk can sometimes be a turnoff in tournaments, it feels justified given his affordable salary and prominent role within Philly’s rotation right now. He also ranks first in tournament upside at his price point with a 30.46% boom rate and appears in over a quarter of optimal lineups (26.54%). If you’re looking for stability with upside at SG/SF, Walker fits perfectly into both cash and GPP builds despite his popularity. There’s no need to overthink this one—he’s priced too well for the opportunity he’s getting.

More SG Plays:

• Collin Sexton ($6,200)
• Carlton Carrington ($5,800)
• Anfernee Simons ($6,700)

SF - Deni Avdija ($9,900)

Deni Avdija is in an intriguing spot tonight against the Jazz, assuming he suits up. At $9,900, he carries a strong 5.1x value projection and has been on an absolute tear recently, averaging 60 DK points over his last three games. With a robust 1.44 FPPM rate and projected for 35 minutes, Avdija’s role as a primary option for Portland is locked in. Utah has struggled defensively all season, ranking in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency and offering little resistance to opposing forwards. If Avdija plays, his combination of usage and matchup upside makes him a strong consideration in all formats.

The biggest question mark here is his high ownership at 20.2%, which could make him chalky on this slate. However, given his recent production and the fact that he’s appearing in over 24% of optimal lineups, the chalk feels warranted. This isn’t empty volume either—Avdija’s ability to contribute across multiple categories (points, rebounds, assists) gives him a stable floor with legitimate ceiling potential if the game stays competitive. Keep an eye on his status leading into lock; if he’s confirmed in, he’s one of the best high-priced plays available tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Sam Hauser ($4,200)
• Justin Champagnie ($5,400)
• LeBron James ($10,300)

PF - Tidjane Salaun ($4,400)

Tidjane Salaun ($4,400) stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate. Projected for 30.05 DK points at a solid 0.94 FPPM and expected to log 32 minutes, he offers an impressive 6.83x value. His recent performances show consistency in his role, with three games over 23 DK points in his last five outings, including a near double-double against Memphis. Toronto is a middle-of-the-road defensive team against power forwards, and with Charlotte’s rotation tightened due to their non-contending status, Salaun should continue seeing significant usage in this spot.

At 47.1% projected ownership, Salaun will be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate, but it feels justified given his combination of price, opportunity, and production ceiling (40.96% Boom%). He also appears in nearly 30% of optimal lineups, which reinforces his viability even in tournaments despite the heavy ownership. If you’re fading him in GPPs, you’ll need a strong pivot with similar upside at a comparable salary—something that isn’t easy to find on this slate. All things considered, Salaun is a foundational piece for cash games and worth serious consideration for tournaments as well.

More PF Plays:

• Anthony Davis ($9,800)
• Paolo Banchero ($10,000)
• Bam Adebayo ($9,300)

C - Adem Bona ($5,700)

Adem Bona checks a lot of boxes tonight at $5,700, and while the 28.6% projected ownership might make him one of the chalkier plays on the slate, it’s hard to argue against his value. He’s projected for 35.1 DK points with an impressive 6.2x value and has been a key contributor during his recent stretch as Philadelphia’s starting center. Over his last five games, Bona has averaged 30+ minutes and delivered strong defensive stats, including 3.0 blocks and 1.3 steals per game, which are crucial for DFS scoring. The matchup against Washington is favorable as well—the Wizards rank near the bottom in defensive efficiency and struggle to defend centers, making this a great spot for Bona to continue his production.

The high ownership is worth considering in tournaments, but it feels justified given his consistent ceiling games at this price point (44 DK points vs. Milwaukee and 38.8 DK points vs. Miami). With a Boom% of nearly 37% and appearing in over 28% of optimal lineups, Bona is clearly one of the best mid-range options on the slate. If you’re fading him in GPPs, you’ll need to find leverage elsewhere or hope for foul trouble or an outlier performance from another player in that price range. In cash games, however, he’s a near-lock given his recent role and reliability on both ends of the floor.

More C Plays:

• Jusuf Nurkic ($5,300)
• Bam Adebayo ($9,300)
• Alexandre Sarr ($6,200)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!