FREE 04/11 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a packed 10-game NBA slate tonight, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with the late games at 9:00 PM ET. Two matchups jump off the page from a DFS perspective: Memphis at Denver (245.0 total) and Atlanta at Philadelphia (240.5 total). Both games feature fast-paced teams with plenty of scoring potential, making them prime targets for stacking or grabbing key pieces. With such high totals, these spots are likely to draw heavy attention, so finding ways to differentiate within those games—or pivoting elsewhere—could be the key.

The rest of the slate has a mix of slower-paced matchups and middling totals, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities. With 10 games on the board, there’s enough variety to get creative with roster construction while still building around those juicy high-total environments. Late swap could also play a role tonight with two of the most appealing games tipping off in the final window. Keep an eye on ownership trends and be ready to adjust as news breaks leading up to lock.

Game Environment Analysis

MIL @ DET (O/U: 230.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: MIL (13th) vs DET (8th)
• Off Eff: MIL (12th) vs DET (16th)
• Def Eff: MIL (11th) vs DET (9th)

ORL @ IND (O/U: 212.5, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: ORL (29th) vs IND (10th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ORL (27th) vs IND (6th)
• Def Eff: ORL (2nd) vs IND (15th)

ATL @ PHI (O/U: 240.5, Spread: 11.0)

• Pace: ATL (3rd) vs PHI (24th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ATL (19th) vs PHI (22nd)
• Def Eff: ATL (19th) vs PHI (26th) 🎯

CHA @ BOS (O/U: 213.5, Spread: -19.5)

• Pace: CHA (21st) vs BOS (30th)
• Off Eff: CHA (29th) vs BOS (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHA (24th) vs BOS (5th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

CLE @ NYK (O/U: 225.0, Spread: -1.0)

• Pace: CLE (7th) vs NYK (26th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs NYK (5th)
• Def Eff: CLE (8th) vs NYK (16th)

MIA @ NOP (O/U: 214.0, Spread: 15.5)

• Pace: MIA (28th) vs NOP (15th)
• Off Eff: MIA (21st) vs NOP (24th)
• Def Eff: MIA (12th) vs NOP (28th) 🎯
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

WAS @ CHI (O/U: 238.0, Spread: -16.5)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs CHI (2nd)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs CHI (17th)
• Def Eff: WAS (27th) 🎯 vs CHI (21st)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

TOR @ DAL (O/U: 224.0, Spread: -12.5)

• Pace: TOR (11th) vs DAL (14th)
• Off Eff: TOR (26th) vs DAL (13th)
• Def Eff: TOR (14th) vs DAL (20th)

MEM @ DEN (O/U: 245.0, Spread: -7.0)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs DEN (9th)
• Off Eff: MEM (7th) 🔥 vs DEN (3rd)
• Def Eff: MEM (10th) vs DEN (22nd)

BKN @ MIN (O/U: 217.0, Spread: -21.0)

• Pace: BKN (27th) vs MIN (23rd)
• Off Eff: BKN (28th) vs MIN (11th)
• Def Eff: BKN (18th) vs MIN (6th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - AJ Lawson ($4,400)

AJ Lawson stands out as one of the best value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,400. Projected for 32.4 DK points and a strong 7.35x value, Lawson has been efficient with his minutes, posting 0.97 FPPM this season. What makes him particularly appealing is his projected 33.5 minutes in a matchup against Dallas, which should provide plenty of opportunities for production in a competitive game environment. His recent performances back this up—he’s shown versatility by contributing across multiple stat categories, including a standout 35 DK-point game against Charlotte where he logged seven assists and six rebounds in just 28 minutes. With a 51.4% Boom rate and appearing in over 27% of optimal lineups, he’s a high-upside option worth serious consideration.

At an expected ownership of 13.3%, Lawson will be popular but not prohibitively chalky given his price and upside combination. While the elevated ownership means you’re not gaining significant leverage by rostering him, it also reflects the field’s confidence in his role and potential ceiling at this salary point. He projects as an excellent foundational piece for both cash games and tournaments, especially if you want to maximize value while spending up elsewhere on the slate. If Lawson can replicate his recent all-around performances, he could easily outperform his salary yet again tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Josh Giddey ($10,500)
• T.J. McConnell ($3,700)
• Trae Young ($10,000)

SG - Antonio Reeves ($4,000)

Antonio Reeves ($4,000) stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate, and his 6.8x value projection highlights why he’s such a popular option tonight. Projected for 33 minutes against Miami, Reeves has been a steady contributor for the Pelicans, averaging 30+ DK points in three of his last four games. His ability to rack up steals (1.8 per game over his last four) and knock down threes (3.3 made per game in that span) gives him a solid floor with upside at this salary. Miami is a middle-of-the-pack defensive team against wings, and Reeves’ high Boom% (38.57%) paired with his efficient 0.82 FPPM makes him a strong play in both cash games and tournaments.

The 26.5% projected ownership might scare off some DFS players, but it’s justified given his price tag and role in the Pelicans’ rotation. With New Orleans leaning on him heavily in recent games, Reeves has delivered consistent production even in tough matchups like Milwaukee and Brooklyn. While he’s not an elite scorer or rebounder, his balanced stat line and heavy minutes make him difficult to fade at $4,000. If you’re looking for chalk that makes sense tonight, Reeves fits the bill perfectly as he appears in nearly 19% of optimal lineups—a clear indicator of his viability across contest types.

More SG Plays:

• Anthony Edwards ($9,700)
• Coby White ($8,700)
• Cole Anthony ($5,100)

SF - Keion Brooks Jr. ($4,000)

Keion Brooks Jr. stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $4,000. With a projected 28 minutes against Miami and a solid 0.93 FPPM, he’s set up to return excellent value at 6.5x his salary. His recent performances back this up—he’s scored 22+ DK points in three of his last four games, including a 31-point outing against Milwaukee where he logged a double-double in 32 minutes. With Bruce Brown sidelined, Brooks has been thrust into a larger role, and he’s clearly making the most of it. Miami’s defense is tough overall, but they’ve struggled against versatile wings like Brooks who can contribute across multiple categories.

At 16.1% projected ownership, Brooks will be chalky for his price range, but it feels justified given his recent production and opportunity. The combination of high boom potential (31.9%) and frequent appearances in optimal lineups (12.1%) makes him hard to ignore in both cash games and tournaments. While there’s some risk if his minutes dip below the projection, his floor seems stable enough given his consistent involvement over the past week. If you’re looking for affordable exposure to a mid-paced matchup with clear upside, Brooks is a strong play tonight despite the elevated ownership.

More SF Plays:

• Coby White ($8,700)
• Michael Porter Jr. ($7,200)
• Lonnie Walker IV ($6,200)

PF - Jonathan Mogbo ($5,500)

Jonathan Mogbo is shaping up as one of the best value plays on tonight’s slate at $5,500. With a projected 33.7 DK points and a strong 6.13x value, he’s an appealing mid-range option who’s been delivering across multiple categories. Over his last five games, Mogbo has flashed upside with two massive performances—50+ DK points in both—and while his floor isn’t rock-solid, his recent triple-double against Charlotte shows the kind of ceiling he can reach when given extended minutes. Tonight’s matchup against Dallas presents a solid opportunity for him to continue producing, as the Mavericks rank middle-of-the-pack defensively and struggle to defend versatile bigs like Mogbo.

At 11.2% projected ownership, Mogbo is chalky compared to field averages but not prohibitively so for tournaments. With a 34.6% boom rate and appearing in nearly 20% of optimal lineups, there’s clear justification for the attention he’s drawing. His ability to contribute in multiple stat categories—scoring efficiently inside, rebounding well, and even racking up assists—makes him a strong GPP play despite the elevated ownership. If you’re building around stars tonight, Mogbo provides excellent salary relief without sacrificing upside.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,500)
• Anthony Davis ($10,200)
• Karlo Matkovic ($4,600)

C - Goga Bitadze ($3,400)

Goga Bitadze stands out as an intriguing value play at just $3,400 on DraftKings. Projected for 30 minutes against his former team, the Pacers, he offers elite point-per-dollar upside with a 9.3x value projection and a solid 1.06 FPPM rate. Indiana has struggled defensively in the paint this season, ranking near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency against centers, which sets up well for Bitadze to capitalize on extended run. His Boom% of nearly 68% and appearance in 35.7% of optimal lineups highlight his potential to smash value tonight, especially if the Magic continue to lean on him in what could be a competitive matchup.

At 9.7% projected ownership, Bitadze is garnering attention but not enough to shy away from him in tournaments, especially given his strong projection of 31.7 DK points. While his recent game logs show some inconsistency due to fluctuating minutes, the potential for a double-double is very much in play if he sees anywhere near his expected workload tonight. The combination of price tag, opportunity, and matchup makes him one of the better salary-saving options on this slate and worth considering even as somewhat popular chalk.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($13,000)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,500)
• Nikola Vucevic ($8,500)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!