FREE 04/28 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s two-game slate might be small, but there’s still plenty to dig into. The first game tips off at 7:30 PM ET with Cleveland visiting Miami in a matchup featuring the highest total on the slate at 211.5. While it’s not exactly a shootout, this game should draw attention for its relatively higher scoring potential and competitive nature. On the other hand, Houston takes on Golden State at 10:00 PM ET in a much slower-paced game with a total of just 202.5, making it less appealing for stacking but possibly valuable for finding individual plays.

With only two games, ownership is going to condense quickly, so finding ways to differentiate your lineup will be key. Targeting players who could exceed expectations in lower-total spots or pivoting off chalkier plays in the Cleveland-Miami game might give you an edge. Late swap could also come into play with the gap between start times, so keep an eye on how things unfold as we head into the nightcap.

Game Environment Analysis

CLE @ MIA (O/U: 211.5, Spread: 8.5)

• Pace: CLE (10th) vs MIA (28th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs MIA (21st)
• Def Eff: CLE (8th) vs MIA (12th)

HOU @ GSW (O/U: 202.5, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: HOU (18th) vs GSW (17th)
• Off Eff: HOU (20th) vs GSW (15th)
• Def Eff: HOU (5th) vs GSW (7th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Tyler Herro ($7,700)

Tyler Herro ($7,700) stands out as a strong play tonight against Cleveland, even in what projects to be a tough matchup. The Heat guard has been logging heavy minutes, averaging nearly 40 per game over his last five contests, and his consistent usage solidifies his ceiling potential. He’s projected for 41.4 DK points with a solid 5.4x value, making him one of the most efficient plays at his price point. While Cleveland’s defense can be stifling, particularly against guards, Herro has proven he can score in bunches even in difficult matchups—he dropped 33 points on this same team just days ago. His 25.3% boom rate and a slate-leading 51.1% optimal lineup percentage further underscore his upside.

At 39.5% ownership, Herro will be moderately chalky but still worth considering in tournaments due to his role and volume. His combination of high minutes, strong FPPM (1.03), and ability to deliver big games makes him an appealing option despite the elevated ownership relative to the field average. While he’s not exactly sneaky, fading him could backfire given his central role in Miami’s offense and their reliance on him for scoring in what should remain a competitive series. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Herro looks like one of the better mid-tier plays on the slate tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Stephen Curry ($9,500)
• Donovan Mitchell ($8,500)

SG - Jalen Green ($6,900)

Jalen Green ($6,900) is a fascinating play tonight against the Warriors. While his recent performances have been all over the map, his ceiling is undeniable, as evidenced by the 61 DK points he dropped in Game 2 of this series. At 35.92% optimal lineup inclusion and a solid 5.08x value projection, Green’s combination of volume (projected for 36 minutes) and opportunity in a fast-paced matchup makes him an appealing target. Golden State struggles to contain high-usage guards, and Green’s ability to score in bunches—especially from beyond the arc—gives him a strong path to upside if his shot is falling.

The ownership here (45.2%) will likely scare some people off in tournaments, but it’s chalk worth considering given his tournament rank (1st) and boom potential (18.9%). The volatility in his recent game log might make him feel risky, but that’s exactly why he fits well into GPP builds where you’re chasing ceiling outcomes. With Houston likely playing from behind most of the night, Green should see plenty of usage as their primary scorer. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk at shooting guard, Green has the tools to deliver another big performance at this price point.

More SG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($8,500)
• Brandin Podziemski ($5,500)

SF - Jimmy Butler ($8,200)

Jimmy Butler comes in at $8,200 tonight in a matchup against Houston, and while his 65.2% projected ownership is eye-popping, it’s hard to argue against the chalk here. He’s projected for 43.2 DK points with a strong 5.3x value, and his ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him one of the safest plays on the slate. The Rockets rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, and Butler has proven he can dominate this matchup, as evidenced by his 52.8 DK points in 42 minutes just two games ago. With a Boom% of 23.6% and appearing in over 38% of optimal lineups, he’s a cornerstone for both cash games and tournaments.

The high ownership might scare some people off in GPPs, but Butler’s ceiling makes him worth eating the chalk. He’s played heavy minutes when healthy (39 projected tonight) and continues to produce at an elite level with a solid 1.11 FPPM rate. While others may try to pivot away due to his popularity, fading him could be risky given Houston’s defensive struggles and Butler’s proven ability to exploit them. If you’re looking for stability with upside on tonight’s slate, Butler is a priority play despite his hefty ownership numbers.

More SF Plays:

• Amen Thompson ($7,100)
• Andrew Wiggins ($6,700)

PF - Bam Adebayo ($8,700)

Bam Adebayo ($8,700) is one of the top plays on the slate tonight, and for good reason. He’s projected for 46.7 DK points with a solid 5.4x value, making him not just a high-floor option but also one with ceiling potential given his 28.6% Boom rate. The Cavaliers are a tough defensive matchup overall, but their interior defense isn’t impenetrable—Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley can be beaten by versatile bigs like Bam who can contribute across multiple categories. With Adebayo expected to play around 40 minutes in what should be a competitive game, his ability to rack up points, rebounds, and assists puts him in a prime spot to hit value.

The biggest question is whether his 51.8% ownership makes him worth eating the chalk. In this case, it feels justified given how frequently he’s appearing in optimal lineups (49.9%) and his consistent production throughout the playoffs so far (40+ DK points in four of his last five games). While there may be merit to pivoting off Bam in large-field GPPs for leverage, fading him entirely could be risky considering how reliable he’s been as Miami’s offensive anchor. If you’re looking for stability with legitimate upside, Bam should remain firmly in your player pool tonight despite the heavy ownership.

More PF Plays:

• Draymond Green ($6,500)
• Tari Eason ($4,600)

C - Nikola Jovic ($3,700)

Nikola Jovic comes in at just $3,700 tonight, making him a strong value play with a 4.5x projection and an appearance rate in 29.2% of optimal lineups. While his projected 16.7 DK points may not jump off the page, the combination of low salary and potential upside makes him intriguing in tournaments. He’s projected to see around 21 minutes against Cleveland, and while the Cavs are a tough defensive matchup, Jovic’s ability to contribute across multiple categories—like his 11-point, eight-rebound performance in Game 2—gives him a path to exceeding value if he can capitalize on his opportunities.

At 27.8% projected ownership, Jovic is slightly above the field average but not overwhelmingly chalky. This level of ownership feels justified given his salary relief and role in Miami’s rotation adjustments during this series. While he carries some risk due to inconsistent shooting (just 1-for-7 from the field last game), his versatility and increased minutes make him worth considering as a value piece to fit higher-priced studs into your lineup. If you’re looking for savings at PF/C without sacrificing too much upside, Jovic is firmly in play tonight.

More C Plays:

• Alperen Sengun ($9,000)
• Jarrett Allen ($6,200)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!