FREE 05/07 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s two-game slate is pretty straightforward but offers some clear spots to target. The Knicks at Celtics game kicks things off at 7:00 PM ET with a solid total of 211.5, suggesting a decent pace and scoring potential on both sides. Later, the Denver at Oklahoma City matchup at 9:30 PM ET stands out with the highest total on the slate at 229.5, which should provide plenty of opportunities for DFS scoring.

With only two games, every pick matters even more than usual. The focus will be on players involved in these higher total games since they offer the best chance for upside. Pace and usage will be key factors to watch, especially in the Denver-OKC game where the pace tends to push fantasy ceilings higher. Overall, it’s a compact slate but one that can reward sharp lineup construction.

Game Environment Analysis

NYK @ BOS (O/U: 211.5, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: NYK (26th) vs BOS (30th)
• Off Eff: NYK (5th) vs BOS (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: NYK (15th) vs BOS (3rd)

DEN @ OKC (O/U: 229.5, Spread: -10.0)

• Pace: DEN (12th) vs OKC (6th)
• Off Eff: DEN (4th) vs OKC (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: DEN (22nd) vs OKC (1st)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Alex Caruso ($4,300)

Alex Caruso remains a strong play at $4,300, especially given his recent production and role in the Thunder’s rotation. He’s coming off a 26-minute outing where he posted 45.8 DK points with excellent shooting (7/12 FG, 5/9 3PT) and elite defensive stats (five steals, two blocks). His ability to contribute across multiple categories gives him a solid boom ceiling, reflected in his 23.7% boom rate and strong value at 5.8x. The matchup against Denver is intriguing since the Nuggets can be vulnerable to guards who can create on both ends, and Caruso’s minutes should hold steady around 25-26 in this playoff series.

Ownership is high at nearly 70%, which makes sense given Caruso’s consistent impact and affordable price tag relative to his output. This slate likely won’t have many players offering better combination of floor, ceiling, and value at that salary range. While he isn’t a pure upside dart, his balanced scoring and defensive contributions make him one of the safer mid-tier options for tournaments and cash games alike. If you want leverage away from chalkier stars, there are other ways to differentiate your lineup without fading Caruso outright here.

More PG Plays:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($9,600)
• Jamal Murray ($7,000)

SG - Jamal Murray ($7,000)

Jamal Murray is priced at $7,000 and projects as a strong value play with a 5.6x value multiplier and a 30% boom rate. He’s locked into heavy minutes again, expected to log around 42 minutes against OKC, a team that has struggled to contain dynamic guards this postseason. Murray’s usage remains high, averaging 22.6 points, nearly six assists, and over five rebounds through eight playoff games while maintaining steady volume from deep with about 2.6 threes per game. The matchup sets up well for him to deliver solid counting stats even if his shooting fluctuates.

Ownership is hovering near 45%, which is on the higher side but not unreasonable given his role and upside in this game environment. Denver’s offense runs through Murray when Jokic and Gordon are drawing attention inside, making him one of the more reliable scoring options on the slate at this price point. If you want exposure to the Nuggets’ implied total here, Murray makes sense as a core piece rather than just chalk; his boom potential combined with projected minutes justifies the ownership level in tournaments.

More SG Plays:

• Jaylen Brown ($7,100)
• Christian Braun ($5,500)

SF - Jayson Tatum ($9,200)

Jayson Tatum comes in as the top-ranked DFS option on this slate, priced at $9,200 with a strong 1.34 FPPM and an impressive boom rate over 42%. Despite his struggles from deep in Game 1 against the Knicks, he still managed a massive 59 DK points thanks to his rebounding and playmaking, showing that his volume and involvement remain elite. The matchup against New York is favorable enough for him to maintain upside—especially if he improves his shooting efficiency. Expect him to log around 40 minutes again, which supports his value of 5.8x salary multiple.

Ownership is high at just over 51%, reflecting how much confidence the field has in him given his consistent playoff output and usage. This chalk seems justified since Tatum’s ceiling is near the top of any slate, and Boston will rely on him heavily to respond after falling behind in the series. If you’re fading, it should be based on stacking or differentiating elsewhere rather than concerns about his role or opportunity.

More SF Plays:

• Jalen Williams ($7,400)
• OG Anunoby ($6,000)

PF - Aaron Gordon ($5,800)

Aaron Gordon is a solid play tonight at $5,800, especially given his role and recent usage. He’s consistently logged heavy minutes (projected 39) and delivered strong fantasy output in the playoffs, with multiple 30+ DK point games including a 43.5-point outing against OKC just recently. His ability to contribute across points, rebounds, and occasional assists makes him a reliable source of value at 5.6x salary multiplier. The matchup against OKC isn’t ideal defensively but Denver has shown they can exploit it, which keeps Gordon’s upside intact.

Ownership is high at nearly 50%, reflecting his clear value and consistency in this spot. That chalk seems justified considering he ranks first in Hero GPP and appears in over 40% of optimal lineups. While you might want some leverage elsewhere, Gordon is firmly in play for cash games and popular GPP builds alike due to his steady floor combined with boom potential (24% boom rate). If you’re rostering him, expect a safe baseline with upside tied closely to Denver’s pace and scoring environment versus Oklahoma City.

More PF Plays:

• Jalen Williams ($7,400)
• OG Anunoby ($6,000)

C - Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,700)

Isaiah Hartenstein is a solid value play at $5,700 against Denver, especially with his consistent volume in rebounds and assists. He’s averaging nearly a double-double in the playoffs with about 9.6 points and 8.8 boards per game while playing around 25 minutes. His ability to contribute across multiple categories, combined with a boom rate over 21%, gives him a nice ceiling for his price. The Nuggets have had some trouble containing versatile bigs this postseason, which should help Hartenstein maintain his role and production.

Ownership is moderate at roughly 29%, which seems about right given his steady output and mid-range salary. He appears in about a third of optimal lineups, reflecting how he fits well as a strong value piece without being overly chalky. With OKC leaning on small-ball lineups but still needing Hartenstein’s presence on the glass and facilitating from the center spot, he offers balanced upside that can pay off if the pace stays up and he hits that rebound ceiling again.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($11,000)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,600)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!