FREE 1/23 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 8-game NBA slate brings plenty of intrigue for DFS with a mix of game environments to navigate. The action tips off at 7:00 PM ET and runs through the late-night hammer at 10:30 PM ET. Two games stand out from a totals perspective: Sacramento at Denver (242.0) and Toronto at Atlanta (237.0). Both matchups feature high-paced teams and plenty of fantasy potential, making them clear targets for stacking or grabbing key pieces. Beyond those, the rest of the slate includes some slower matchups, so finding balance will be crucial.

As always, how you approach ownership and late swap opportunities could make or break your night. With games spread across different time slots, staying flexible is key—especially if you’re targeting those marquee matchups in Denver or Atlanta later on. There’s plenty to like here, but also some traps to avoid with lower-total games that may not keep pace from a fantasy standpoint. With that in mind… Our January 23 Starting Five is now LIVE!

Game Environment Analysis

POR @ ORL (O/U: 212.0, Spread: -8.0)

• Pace: POR (15th) vs ORL (30th)
• Off Eff: POR (26th) vs ORL (29th)
• Def Eff: POR (27th) 🎯 vs ORL (3rd)

TOR @ ATL (O/U: 237.0, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: TOR (12th) vs ATL (3rd)
• Off Eff: TOR (23rd) vs ATL (18th)
• Def Eff: TOR (28th) 🎯 vs ATL (17th)

DAL @ OKC (O/U: 223.0, Spread: -12.0)

• Pace: DAL (11th) vs OKC (7th)
• Off Eff: DAL (8th) vs OKC (7th)
• Def Eff: DAL (11th) vs OKC (1st)

MIA @ MIL (O/U: 225.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: MIA (26th) vs MIL (9th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIA (14th) vs MIL (11th)
• Def Eff: MIA (12th) vs MIL (9th)

SAC @ DEN (O/U: 242.0, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: SAC (10th) vs DEN (5th)
• Off Eff: SAC (6th) vs DEN (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: SAC (14th) vs DEN (15th)

CHI @ GSW (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -1.5)

• Pace: CHI (2nd) vs GSW (16th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (13th) vs GSW (20th)
• Def Eff: CHI (23rd) vs GSW (10th)

BOS @ LAL (O/U: 218.5, Spread: 6.0)

• Pace: BOS (24th) vs LAL (22nd)
• Off Eff: BOS (4th) 🔥 vs LAL (12th)
• Def Eff: BOS (6th) vs LAL (22nd)

WAS @ LAC (O/U: 225.5, Spread: -14.5)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs LAC (20th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs LAC (22nd)
• Def Eff: WAS (30th) 🎯 vs LAC (4th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Russell Westbrook ($6,200)

Russell Westbrook ($6,200) stands out as one of the better mid-range options on tonight’s slate, offering strong value at 5.4x and appearing in 28.5% of optimal lineups. While his recent stat lines may not jump off the page, he’s quietly been an efficient producer with 1.16 DK points per minute. Projected to play 29 minutes in a game featuring a massive 125-point implied total, this matchup against Sacramento is tailor-made for DFS upside given the Kings’ fast pace and below-average defensive metrics against guards. Westbrook’s ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him a solid GPP option, especially with his boom percentage sitting at an impressive 28.5%.

Ownership is worth noting here, as Westbrook is projected to be around 19.9% owned—a reasonable number for his price and ceiling potential in tournaments. He’s thrived in high-tempo environments before, and while he’s taken on more of a secondary offensive role recently, his ability to rack up rebounds and assists keeps him viable even when scoring is limited. At $6,200, you’re getting a player who can realistically hit or exceed value without needing to dominate offensively. He’s an excellent way to get exposure to what should be one of the slate’s most fantasy-friendly games without breaking the bank or sacrificing upside in your lineup construction.

More PG Plays:

• Scottie Barnes ($8,700)
• Stephen Curry ($8,800)
• Malik Monk ($7,000)

SG - Malik Monk ($7,000)

Malik Monk is in a great spot tonight at $7,000, offering strong value with a 5.4x projection and an expected 37.8 DK points. Since moving into the starting lineup, Monk has been thriving as both a scorer and playmaker, averaging 22.3 points, 7.5 assists, and 1.7 steals over his last ten games. The Kings are projected for a healthy game total of 116.5 against Denver, and while the Nuggets rank as a middle-of-the-pack defensive unit overall, they struggle to contain opposing guards—particularly ones who can create off the dribble like Monk. With De’Aaron Fox likely facing most of Denver’s defensive focus, Monk should have opportunities to exploit this matchup.

Ownership is worth noting here, as Monk is projected at 26.5%, making him one of the more popular plays on the slate. While that limits his leverage slightly in tournaments, his consistency since entering the starting five (35+ DK points in four straight games) makes him tough to fade in this price range. He’s also logging heavy minutes—averaging nearly 37 per game recently—which boosts both his floor and ceiling in an up-tempo environment against Denver’s fast-paced offense led by Nikola Jokic. If you’re looking for solid mid-tier exposure tonight with upside to spare, Monk is firmly in play across all formats.

More SG Plays:

• Jamal Murray ($7,200)
• Zach LaVine ($8,200)
• Jordan Poole ($6,900)

SF - Scottie Barnes ($8,700)

Scottie Barnes comes in as a strong option tonight at $8,700, offering both a solid floor and enticing upside. With a 1.31 FPPM and a projection of 45.86 DK points, he’s delivering consistent production across multiple categories. Over his last five games, Barnes has averaged 45.6 DK points while contributing in every stat line—points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. His ability to fill the box score makes him an excellent target against Atlanta, who ranks middle of the pack defensively and struggles to contain versatile wings like Barnes. The Raptors’ reliance on him as their primary facilitator in Immanuel Quickley’s absence only strengthens his case for heavy usage.

At 21.4% projected ownership, Barnes won’t be sneaky, but his combination of value (5.27x) and ceiling (25% Boom%) make him worth the investment in both cash games and tournaments. Atlanta’s fast-paced style (8th in pace) creates more possessions for Barnes to rack up stats, while the game total of 115.75 provides plenty of scoring opportunities. With a healthy 35-minute projection and an appearance rate of nearly 17% in optimal lineups, he’s well-positioned to deliver another strong DFS performance tonight without breaking the bank relative to other high-priced options on the slate.

More SF Plays:

• RJ Barrett ($7,700)
• Andrew Wiggins ($6,100)
• Zach LaVine ($8,200)

PF - Andrew Wiggins ($6,100)

Andrew Wiggins is an intriguing mid-range option at $6,100 tonight in a solid matchup against the Bulls. He’s projected for 32.8 DK points with a strong 5.4x value and appears in nearly 13% of optimal lineups, which speaks to his upside at this price point. While his fantasy production can be volatile, Wiggins has shown ceiling potential recently, including a 59.8-point performance just three games ago against Washington. He’s averaging 18.9 points per game in January and is expected to play around 33 minutes, giving him plenty of opportunity to contribute across multiple stat categories.

The game environment is also favorable for Wiggins, with the Warriors carrying a team total of 115.25 in what should be a competitive matchup against Chicago. The Bulls rank middle-of-the-pack defensively against forwards, making this a neutral spot where Wiggins’ usage and minutes will determine his value more than the matchup itself. At an expected ownership of 23.5%, he’s not exactly sneaky, but his tournament rank (3rd) and Boom% (19.1%) suggest he has the potential to outperform other players at similar price points if he hits his ceiling. Wiggins is firmly in play as a strong value with upside tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)
• Paolo Banchero ($8,400)
• Jalen Johnson ($8,600)

C - Onyeka Okongwu ($5,600)

Onyeka Okongwu is in a fantastic spot tonight at $5,600, offering significant value with a projection of 35.8 DK points and a strong 6.4x value rating. He’s locked into around 30 minutes as the starter, and while Clint Capela lurks in the background, Okongwu has proven he can produce even in limited time. Over his last five games, he’s shown a high ceiling with performances of 45+ DK points three times, including a monster 52.8-point outing against Phoenix. With an elite FPPM rate of 1.19 and Toronto ranking middle-of-the-pack defensively against centers, this matchup should allow him to continue his efficiency in scoring and rebounding.

The game environment is another positive here, with Atlanta projected for one of the higher team totals on the slate at 121.25 points. Okongwu’s ownership is expected to hover around 38%, making him a chalky option but one that feels difficult to fade given his Boom% of over 40%. He also appears in 17.3% of optimal lineups, so there’s clear tournament upside if he hits his projection or better. While he’ll be popular, his price-to-production ratio makes him tough to ignore on this slate as one of the best mid-range plays available at center.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,200)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)
• Ivica Zubac ($7,200)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!