FREE 02/01 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 6-game NBA slate offers a mix of game environments, but two matchups clearly stand out for DFS purposes. The Kings at Thunder (235.5 total) has the highest projected score on the slate, featuring two fast-paced teams with plenty of offensive firepower. Right behind it is the Lakers at Knicks (226.0 total), where star power and a competitive game environment should draw plenty of attention. These are the spots to prioritize if you’re targeting ceiling performances, while some of the slower-paced games may serve better as value fillers.

With only 90 minutes between tip-off of the first and last game, there’s not much late-swap potential tonight, so getting your core right from the jump will be key. The field will likely focus heavily on those high-total games, so balancing exposure with contrarian plays elsewhere could make all the difference. With that in mind… Our February 01 Starting Five is now LIVE!

Game Environment Analysis

DEN @ CHA (O/U: 223.5, Spread: 12.5)

• Pace: DEN (5th) vs CHA (21st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DEN (3rd) 🔥 vs CHA (28th)
• Def Eff: DEN (20th) vs CHA (14th)

BKN @ HOU (O/U: 212.0, Spread: -14.5)

• Pace: BKN (29th) vs HOU (18th)
• Off Eff: BKN (27th) vs HOU (15th)
• Def Eff: BKN (26th) 🎯 vs HOU (2nd)

WAS @ MIN (O/U: 219.5, Spread: -13.0)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs MIN (25th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs MIN (13th)
• Def Eff: WAS (30th) 🎯 vs MIN (6th)

SAC @ OKC (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: SAC (11th) vs OKC (9th)
• Off Eff: SAC (7th) vs OKC (8th)
• Def Eff: SAC (16th) vs OKC (1st)

LAL @ NYK (O/U: 226.0, Spread: -11.0)

• Pace: LAL (22nd) vs NYK (26th)
• Off Eff: LAL (12th) vs NYK (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: LAL (19th) vs NYK (17th)

MIA @ SAS (O/U: 222.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: MIA (27th) vs SAS (16th)
• Off Eff: MIA (17th) vs SAS (14th)
• Def Eff: MIA (11th) vs SAS (18th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800) is a premium option tonight in a favorable matchup against Sacramento. With an elite 1.61 FPPM and projected for nearly 58 DK points, he offers both a high ceiling and a solid floor. The Kings play at the league’s second-fastest pace, which should create plenty of opportunities for SGA to rack up points, assists, and free-throw attempts—an area where he thrives (90% FT on high volume). Sacramento’s defense ranks middle of the pack against point guards, but their uptempo style often leads to high-scoring environments, making this game one of the most appealing on the slate. At 5.36x value and appearing in 29.1% of optimal lineups, SGA is priced appropriately but still has clear upside given his recent dominance.

The biggest question is whether his expected 35.2% ownership is worth eating in tournaments. While chalky, SGA’s ability to consistently deliver elite performances justifies his popularity tonight. He’s surpassed 50 DK points in three of his last five games, including two massive outings over 63 DK points. If you’re fading him, you’ll need someone else to match his production at a lower cost or ownership—a tough ask given the lack of similarly reliable options in this price range. Ultimately, SGA fits well in both cash games and GPPs due to his combination of consistency and upside in an ideal game environment.

More PG Plays:

• Anthony Edwards ($9,600)
• Jamal Murray ($7,500)
• Jalen Brunson ($8,700)

SG - Anthony Edwards ($9,600)

Anthony Edwards ($9,600) is in a prime spot tonight against the Wizards, who rank near the bottom of the league defensively and struggle to contain guards. Edwards has been on a tear lately, averaging 54 DK points over his last three games while showcasing an elite ceiling with performances of 59.3 and 69 DK points in that span. His 1.4 FPPM and projected 36 minutes make him a strong option, especially given his ability to contribute across multiple categories. With a Boom% of 26.6% and appearing in 25.4% of optimal lineups, he’s one of the most well-rounded high-end plays on the slate.

The main concern here is ownership, as Edwards is projected at 23.6%, making him one of the chalkier options tonight. However, this feels like justified chalk given his combination of recent form, matchup, and value (5.3x). Washington’s defensive inefficiencies should allow Edwards plenty of opportunities to hit or exceed his projection of 50.5 DK points. If you’re comfortable eating some ownership in tournaments, Edwards makes for an excellent play with legitimate upside—just be prepared to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup if you’re locking him in.

More SG Plays:

• Jamal Murray ($7,500)
• Christian Braun ($4,700)
• Stephon Castle ($4,900)

SF - Aaron Wiggins ($3,800)

Aaron Wiggins is shaping up as one of the better value plays on tonight’s slate at just $3,800. With a projection of 23.97 DK points and a 6.31x value rating, he offers strong salary relief while still providing upside, particularly in tournaments where he ranks first in Hero GPP Rank. While his recent performances off the bench have been underwhelming, Wiggins is projected for 28 minutes in a high-paced matchup against Sacramento, which has one of the weaker defenses on the slate. His 0.86 FPPM isn’t elite, but it’s more than serviceable for his price tag given the likely opportunity tonight.

At 36.2% projected ownership, Wiggins will be chalky, but that level of popularity seems warranted given his role and salary-based value. Sacramento’s defensive vulnerabilities and this game’s expected scoring environment make him a solid play even with high ownership factored in. His Boom% of 27.08% and Optimal% of 20.7% further reinforce that he’s a viable option for both cash games and tournaments, though fading him in GPPs could create leverage if you think his ceiling is limited by inconsistent production off the bench. Ultimately, Wiggins is a classic case of good chalk in the right spot—just temper expectations if you’re looking for tournament-winning upside.

More SF Plays:

• Michael Porter Jr. ($5,400)
• Christian Braun ($4,700)
• Keldon Johnson ($3,800)

PF - Naz Reid ($5,500)

Naz Reid is shaping up to be one of the top value plays on tonight’s slate at $5,500. With a strong 1.15 FPPM and a projection of 33.3 DK points, he offers an enticing 6x value in a matchup against Washington, a team that struggles defensively in the frontcourt. Reid is expected to see around 29 minutes, which is more than enough time for him to capitalize on his efficiency. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—scoring, rebounding, and even some assists—gives him a solid floor with upside for tournaments, as shown by his 33.2% Boom rate and appearance in 23% of optimal lineups.

The high ownership (43.8%) might give you pause in GPPs, but it’s chalk worth eating given the context. At this salary and with his role solidified in Minnesota’s rotation, Reid’s ceiling becomes even more appealing against a Wizards team that allows plenty of production to opposing bigs. While he hasn’t flashed massive upside in recent games (topping out at 42 DK points over his last five), this game environment gives him an excellent chance to exceed value yet again. If you’re building around chalky plays tonight, Reid is one of the safest bets for both cash games and tournaments alike.

More PF Plays:

• Aaron Gordon ($4,200)
• Bam Adebayo ($7,700)
• LeBron James ($10,700)

C - Nikola Jokic ($12,000)

Nikola Jokic comes in as one of the top plays on the slate at $12,000, and for good reason. His matchup against the Hornets is about as favorable as it gets, with Charlotte ranking near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and rebounding rate. Jokic’s elite 1.79 FPPM production combined with his projected 36 minutes gives him a strong chance to hit his massive ceiling. He’s posted monster games recently, including a 99 DK-point outing just a few games ago, and his ability to rack up points across all categories makes him one of the safest high-priced options on this slate. With a 34.2% Boom Rate and appearing in over 22% of optimal lineups, he offers both raw points and value despite his hefty salary.

The biggest question here is whether his high ownership (27%) makes him worth eating the chalk. Given his consistency and upside, it’s hard to argue against it tonight. There aren’t many players who can realistically match or exceed Jokic’s potential output, especially in a pace-up spot against Charlotte. While fading him could provide leverage in tournaments, it’s risky given how likely he is to dominate this game environment. If you’re locking in Jokic, make sure to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup—he’s expensive but projects as one of the best investments on this slate.

More C Plays:

• Aaron Gordon ($4,200)
• Bam Adebayo ($7,700)
• Domantas Sabonis ($10,100)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!